HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> has a stellar share price performance YTD, it still lags the HSI since 2023. The solid 2H FY25 result should support further upside. </li>
<li>SSS growth has recovered sharply in Apr-May 2025 (the first two months of 1Q FY26), and CTF should reap further benefits from cost management and product transformation.</li>
<li>FY26F ROE may reach 27.2%. While its current yield is only 4.6%, it is possible to declare special dividend this year, easily pushing it to over 10%.</li>
</ul>


While Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) has a stellar share price performance YTD, it still lags the HSI since 2023. The solid 2H FY25 result should support further upside. 
SSS growth has recovered sharply in Apr-May 2025 (the first two months of 1Q FY26), and CTF should reap further benefits from cost management and product transformation.
FY26F ROE may reach 27.2%. While its current yield is only 4.6%, it is possible to declare special dividend this year, easily pushing it to over 10%.


Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Decent Rebound

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

<ul>
<li>Despite short-term demand headwinds, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> remains well-positioned for structural growth via product premiumization(e.g.,CTF Rouge,Palace Museum), omni-channel scaling, and selective global expansion in culturally aligned markets.</li>
<li>Company continues to defend margins through product mix optimization (fixed-price gold up to 25.6% of gold RSV),disciplined SG&amp;A control, and aggressive retail network rationalization.</li>
<li>Trading at ~26xx TTM P/E, it commands premium to peers, backed by industry-leading ROE (~25%),brand strength,and high dividend payout (~79%), though clear earnings rebound remains key to justify the multiple.</li>
</ul>


Despite short-term demand headwinds, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) remains well-positioned for structural growth via product premiumization(e.g.,CTF Rouge,Palace Museum), omni-channel scaling, and selective global expansion in culturally aligned markets.
Company continues to defend margins through product mix optimization (fixed-price gold up to 25.6% of gold RSV),disciplined SG&amp;A control, and aggressive retail network rationalization.
Trading at ~26xx TTM P/E, it commands premium to peers, backed by industry-leading ROE (~25%),brand strength,and high dividend payout (~79%), though clear earnings rebound remains key to justify the multiple.


Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) – H2FY25 Outlook, Cost Management & Pricing Optimization to Drive Growth.

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The performance slowdown and decrease in number of newly opened stores from 2023 to 2024 was due to the rapid surge in gold prices,which would put franchise model at risk.</li>
<li>Future performance of Zhou Liu Fu may not be benefit from the high gold prices, but could be under pressure due to rising raw material costs and reduced customer demand.</li>
<li>Valuation of Zhou Liu Fu could be lower than peers and the industry average. A comfortable P/E range could be 10-15x if based on 2025 net profit.</li>
</ul>


The performance slowdown and decrease in number of newly opened stores from 2023 to 2024 was due to the rapid surge in gold prices,which would put franchise model at risk.
Future performance of Zhou Liu Fu may not be benefit from the high gold prices, but could be under pressure due to rising raw material costs and reduced customer demand.
Valuation of Zhou Liu Fu could be lower than peers and the industry average. A comfortable P/E range could be 10-15x if based on 2025 net profit.


Pre-IPO Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Primo Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/primo-global" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45246:1" rel="noopener">Primo Global (367A JP) </a>is looking to raise up to $96m in its upcoming Japan IPO</li>
<li>It specializes in merchandising bridal jewellery, namely engagement rings and wedding rings.</li>
<li>In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.</li>
</ul>



Primo Global (367A JP) is looking to raise up to $96m in its upcoming Japan IPO
It specializes in merchandising bridal jewellery, namely engagement rings and wedding rings.
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.


Primo Global Pre-IPO: Fairly Valued, Controlling Shareholders Rushing for Exit

Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food / Equity Capital Markets

Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food (3288 HK)

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong's IPO market has gathered momentum lately, especially with the overwhelming response to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a>. Consumer IPOs are the next ones to gather interest. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foshan-haitian-flavouring-food-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44279:1" rel="noopener">Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food Co (FHF HK)</a> is the most imminent one, potentially seeking up to US$1bn. Without significant peers in Hong Kong, it should attract good attention.</li>
<li>The other interesting ones include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhou-liu-fu-jewellery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43706:1" rel="noopener">Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. (1716396D CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/three-squirrels" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45113:1" rel="noopener">Three Squirrels (TRS HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eastroc-beverage-group-co-ltd-f3283290-a611-4cb4-8857-93101786e283" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45048:1" rel="noopener">Eastroc Beverage Group (EBG HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Hong Kong's IPO market has gathered momentum lately, especially with the overwhelming response to CATL (3750 HK). Consumer IPOs are the next ones to gather interest. 

Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food Co (FHF HK) is the most imminent one, potentially seeking up to US$1bn. Without significant peers in Hong Kong, it should attract good attention.
The other interesting ones include Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. (1716396D CH), Three Squirrels (TRS HK), and Eastroc Beverage Group (EBG HK). 


HK Strategy: Some Consumer IPO Pipelines and Their Proxies

Hong Kong

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited is a leading luxury jeweler that manufactures and sells a wide range of jewelry products, including gem-set, platinum, k-gold, and gold jewelry, as well as distributing watches. The company operates a vertically integrated business model, from diamond sourcing and manufacturing to retail and after-sales services, through both physical stores and online platforms. It was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Decent Rebound

Despite lagging the HSI since end-2023, CTF's solid 2H FY25 results, product transformation, and cost control achievement will boost the share...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) – H2FY25 Outlook, Cost Management & Pricing Optimization to Drive Growth.

Chow Tai fook will report its H1FY26 results on 12 June 2025. We look forward to following metrics - a) Ongoing product and pricing optimisation,...

Sreemant Dudhoria

Pre-IPO Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Rapid surge in gold prices poses risk to Zhou Liu Fu's franchise model. The future performance may suffer from rising raw material costs and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Primo Global Pre-IPO: Fairly Valued, Controlling Shareholders Rushing for Exit

Primo Global is looking to raise up to $96m in its upcoming Japan IPO. In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

Nicholas Tan

HK Strategy: Some Consumer IPO Pipelines and Their Proxies

HK's IPO market gains momentum with CATL leading the way. Consumer IPOs like Foshan Haitian are next in line, attracting attention. Others include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Decent Rebound

Despite lagging the HSI since end-2023, ​CTF's solid 2H FY25 results, product transformation, and cost control achievement will boost the share...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) – H2FY25 Outlook, Cost Management & Pricing Optimization to Drive Growth.

Chow Tai fook will report its H1FY26 results on 12 June 2025. We look forward to following metrics - a) Ongoing product and pricing optimisation,...

Sreemant Dudhoria

Pre-IPO Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

​Rapid surge in gold prices poses risk to Zhou Liu Fu's franchise model. The future performance may suffer from rising raw material costs and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Primo Global Pre-IPO: Fairly Valued, Controlling Shareholders Rushing for Exit

Primo Global is looking to raise up to $96m in its upcoming Japan IPO. In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

Nicholas Tan

HK Strategy: Some Consumer IPO Pipelines and Their Proxies

HK's IPO market gains momentum with CATL leading the way. Consumer IPOs like Foshan Haitian are next in line, attracting attention. Others include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Despite lagging the HSI since end-2023, CTF's solid 2H FY25 results, product transformation, and cost control achievement will boost the share...

Rapid surge in gold prices poses risk to Zhou Liu Fu's franchise model. The future performance may suffer from rising raw material costs and...