Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

Equity Bottom-Up

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We compile our selection of companies across Japan, China and India based on bottom-up triggers in each company.</li>
<li>Our top in China are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (300 HK) and Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)  </a>
</li>
<li>Our top picks in Japan are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> and in India Auto it is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) &amp; </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener"> </a>
</li>
</ul>


We compile our selection of companies across Japan, China and India based on bottom-up triggers in each company.
Our top in China are Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) , Midea Group (300 HK) and Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)  

Our top picks in Japan are Denso Corp (6902 JP),ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) and in India Auto it is Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) &amp; Ashok Leyland (AL IN) 



Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India - June 2025

<ul>
<li>
Resilient FY25 Margins: Despite a 17.5% revenue drop, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> expanded operating margins by 400bps through cost control and premium product mix.</li>
<li>
Brand-Led Recovery in FY26: Signature launches, digital sales, and store optimization to drive Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) recovery and sustain high operating leverage.</li>
<li>
Valuation Supported by Fundamentals: Valuation at 20.8x P/E (TTM) valuation justified by strong ROE (&gt;20%), margin leadership, and stable dividend payout (~88%) versus regional jewellery peers.</li>
</ul>



Resilient FY25 Margins: Despite a 17.5% revenue drop, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) expanded operating margins by 400bps through cost control and premium product mix.

Brand-Led Recovery in FY26: Signature launches, digital sales, and store optimization to drive Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) recovery and sustain high operating leverage.

Valuation Supported by Fundamentals: Valuation at 20.8x P/E (TTM) valuation justified by strong ROE (&gt;20%), margin leadership, and stable dividend payout (~88%) versus regional jewellery peers.


Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – Firing on All Cylinders, Strong Outlook For FY26

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> has a stellar share price performance YTD, it still lags the HSI since 2023. The solid 2H FY25 result should support further upside. </li>
<li>SSS growth has recovered sharply in Apr-May 2025 (the first two months of 1Q FY26), and CTF should reap further benefits from cost management and product transformation.</li>
<li>FY26F ROE may reach 27.2%. While its current yield is only 4.6%, it is possible to declare special dividend this year, easily pushing it to over 10%.</li>
</ul>


While Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) has a stellar share price performance YTD, it still lags the HSI since 2023. The solid 2H FY25 result should support further upside. 
SSS growth has recovered sharply in Apr-May 2025 (the first two months of 1Q FY26), and CTF should reap further benefits from cost management and product transformation.
FY26F ROE may reach 27.2%. While its current yield is only 4.6%, it is possible to declare special dividend this year, easily pushing it to over 10%.


Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Decent Rebound

<ul>
<li>Despite short-term demand headwinds, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> remains well-positioned for structural growth via product premiumization(e.g.,CTF Rouge,Palace Museum), omni-channel scaling, and selective global expansion in culturally aligned markets.</li>
<li>Company continues to defend margins through product mix optimization (fixed-price gold up to 25.6% of gold RSV),disciplined SG&amp;A control, and aggressive retail network rationalization.</li>
<li>Trading at ~26xx TTM P/E, it commands premium to peers, backed by industry-leading ROE (~25%),brand strength,and high dividend payout (~79%), though clear earnings rebound remains key to justify the multiple.</li>
</ul>


Despite short-term demand headwinds, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) remains well-positioned for structural growth via product premiumization(e.g.,CTF Rouge,Palace Museum), omni-channel scaling, and selective global expansion in culturally aligned markets.
Company continues to defend margins through product mix optimization (fixed-price gold up to 25.6% of gold RSV),disciplined SG&amp;A control, and aggressive retail network rationalization.
Trading at ~26xx TTM P/E, it commands premium to peers, backed by industry-leading ROE (~25%),brand strength,and high dividend payout (~79%), though clear earnings rebound remains key to justify the multiple.


Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) – H2FY25 Outlook, Cost Management & Pricing Optimization to Drive Growth.

<ul>
<li>The market's assumption of no special dividends in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a>'s upcoming FY24 result is conservative, and this does not fit into its usual pattern. </li>
<li>Should it pay special DPS, the dividend yield may reach an attractive 10.7%. With its net cash position, CTF can financially maintain the average 135.6% payout ratio. </li>
<li>A return to its historical average dividend yield of 7.4% means that CTF's share price will need to go up by 45% from the current level.</li>
</ul>


The market's assumption of no special dividends in Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)'s upcoming FY24 result is conservative, and this does not fit into its usual pattern. 
Should it pay special DPS, the dividend yield may reach an attractive 10.7%. With its net cash position, CTF can financially maintain the average 135.6% payout ratio. 
A return to its historical average dividend yield of 7.4% means that CTF's share price will need to go up by 45% from the current level.


Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): What if Special Dividends Are Declared?

Hong Kong

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited retails jewelry.  The Company sells rings, necklaces, earrings, pendants, bracelets, and small statues.  Chow Tai Fook Jewellery operates retail stores in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Singapore.

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Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India - June 2025

Our selection of top companies in Japan, China, and India is based on bottom-up triggers in each company, with picks including Chow Tai Fook,...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – Firing on All Cylinders, Strong Outlook For FY26

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group shows resilience with margin expansion despite revenue drop, poised for brand-led recovery and supported by strong...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Decent Rebound

Despite lagging the HSI since end-2023, CTF's solid 2H FY25 results, product transformation, and cost control achievement will boost the share...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) – H2FY25 Outlook, Cost Management & Pricing Optimization to Drive Growth.

Chow Tai fook will report its H1FY26 results on 12 June 2025. We look forward to following metrics - a) Ongoing product and pricing optimisation,...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): What if Special Dividends Are Declared?

The market's assumption of no special dividends for CTF's FY24 result may be off - potential for an attractive 10.7% yield. The share price could...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India - June 2025

​Our selection of top companies in Japan, China, and India is based on bottom-up triggers in each company, with picks including Chow Tai Fook,...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – Firing on All Cylinders, Strong Outlook For FY26

​Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group shows resilience with margin expansion despite revenue drop, poised for brand-led recovery and supported by strong...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Decent Rebound

Despite lagging the HSI since end-2023, ​CTF's solid 2H FY25 results, product transformation, and cost control achievement will boost the share...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) – H2FY25 Outlook, Cost Management & Pricing Optimization to Drive Growth.

Chow Tai fook will report its H1FY26 results on 12 June 2025. We look forward to following metrics - a) Ongoing product and pricing optimisation,...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): What if Special Dividends Are Declared?

​The market's assumption of no special dividends for CTF's FY24 result may be off - potential for an attractive 10.7% yield. The share price could...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Our selection of top companies in Japan, China, and India is based on bottom-up triggers in each company, with picks including Chow Tai Fook,...

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group shows resilience with margin expansion despite revenue drop, poised for brand-led recovery and supported by strong...

Despite lagging the HSI since end-2023, CTF's solid 2H FY25 results, product transformation, and cost control achievement will boost the share...

The market's assumption of no special dividends for CTF's FY24 result may be off - potential for an attractive 10.7% yield. The share price could...