Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.</li>
<li>Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX</li>
</ul>


Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.
Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.
Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX


Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.</li>
<li>EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.
At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.
EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.


Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astellas-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091:1" rel="noopener">Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)</a> reported 27% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY27. Core operating profit increased to ¥221.4B, up 56% YoY driven by cost optimization through sustainable margin transformation program.</li>
<li>Strategic brands (Padcev, Izervay, Veozah, Vyloy, Xospata), which recorded underlying growth of 43% YoY and contributed 25% of revenue, drove overall revenue growth.</li>
<li>Astellas reiterated FY27 guidance where they expect FY27 revenue to be ¥2,220B (up 3.8% YoY), core operating profit of ¥620B (up 11.6% YoY) and core profit of ¥460B (+8.4% YoY).</li>
</ul>



Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) reported 27% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY27. Core operating profit increased to ¥221.4B, up 56% YoY driven by cost optimization through sustainable margin transformation program.
Strategic brands (Padcev, Izervay, Veozah, Vyloy, Xospata), which recorded underlying growth of 43% YoY and contributed 25% of revenue, drove overall revenue growth.
Astellas reiterated FY27 guidance where they expect FY27 revenue to be ¥2,220B (up 3.8% YoY), core operating profit of ¥620B (up 11.6% YoY) and core profit of ¥460B (+8.4% YoY).


Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Growth Momentum Intact in Q1; FY27 Guidance Reiterated

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-pharma-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP)</a> revenue was up 20% YoY to ¥129.5B in Q1FY27 on the back of continued strong sales in North America (up 35% YoY to ¥94.3B).</li>
<li>Orgovyx (revenue jumped 58% YoY to ¥51.6B) witnessed solid patient growth in medicare patients while Gemtesa (revenue rose 42% to ¥30.2B) improved market share through clinical differentiation.</li>
<li>Company reiterated FY27 guidance. Core drugs will hold fort and eventually Enzomenib &amp; Amchepry is expected to follow suit in near to medium term.</li>
</ul>



Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) revenue was up 20% YoY to ¥129.5B in Q1FY27 on the back of continued strong sales in North America (up 35% YoY to ¥94.3B).
Orgovyx (revenue jumped 58% YoY to ¥51.6B) witnessed solid patient growth in medicare patients while Gemtesa (revenue rose 42% to ¥30.2B) improved market share through clinical differentiation.
Company reiterated FY27 guidance. Core drugs will hold fort and eventually Enzomenib &amp; Amchepry is expected to follow suit in near to medium term.


Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): North America Continue To Be Robust in Q1FY27, Enzomenib Progressing Well

Japan

Chugai Pharmaceutical Company Ltd., manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals in the domestic and international markets through its subsidiaries. The Company develops drugs in the fields of cancer, infectious diseases, bone, blood, and circulatory systems. Chugai Pharmaceutical also conducts research studies on drugs with private and public medical research institutions.

Price Gauge
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Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)

Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas globally. Constructive if supports hold: $98-99 on...

Vermilion Research

Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

#Japan #Nikkei 225 and #TOPIX above base supports at 30,800 and 2120, respectively. We've discussed buying pullbacks to 1950-2000 on TOPIX, but it...

Vermilion Research

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Growth Momentum Intact in Q1; FY27 Guidance Reiterated

Astellas Pharma sees strong revenue growth in Q1FY27, driven by strategic brands and cost optimization, reiterates FY27 guidance with positive...

Tina Banerjee

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): North America Continue To Be Robust in Q1FY27, Enzomenib Progressing Well

Sumitomo Pharma's Q1FY27 revenue rose 20% YoY to ¥129.5B, driven by strong sales in North America. Orgovyx and Gemtesa saw significant revenue...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas globally. Constructive if supports hold: $98-99 on...

Vermilion Research

Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

#Japan #Nikkei 225 and #TOPIX above base supports at 30,800 and 2120, respectively. We've discussed buying pullbacks to 1950-2000 on TOPIX, but it...

Vermilion Research

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Growth Momentum Intact in Q1; FY27 Guidance Reiterated

​Astellas Pharma sees strong revenue growth in Q1FY27, driven by strategic brands and cost optimization, reiterates FY27 guidance with positive...

Tina Banerjee

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): North America Continue To Be Robust in Q1FY27, Enzomenib Progressing Well

​Sumitomo Pharma's Q1FY27 revenue rose 20% YoY to ¥129.5B, driven by strong sales in North America. Orgovyx and Gemtesa saw significant revenue...

Tina Banerjee

Astellas Pharma sees strong revenue growth in Q1FY27, driven by strategic brands and cost optimization, reiterates FY27 guidance with positive...

Sumitomo Pharma's Q1FY27 revenue rose 20% YoY to ¥129.5B, driven by strong sales in North America. Orgovyx and Gemtesa saw significant revenue...