Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has been trading sideways between 35,000 and 40,000 for the past eleven weeks.</li>
<li>A short straddle allows investors who believe that the Nikkei 225 continues to trade sideways to earn a profit of up to 7% in six weeks.</li>
<li>This Insight presents the strategy rationale, profit and loss profile, back-testing and risk management measures. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has been trading sideways between 35,000 and 40,000 for the past eleven weeks.
A short straddle allows investors who believe that the Nikkei 225 continues to trade sideways to earn a profit of up to 7% in six weeks.
This Insight presents the strategy rationale, profit and loss profile, back-testing and risk management measures. 


EQD | Nikkei 225 Option Opportunity – Earn Premium in Sideways Markets with Straddles

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Nomura Research Institute / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-paper-industries-co-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:557:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7343:1" rel="noopener">Dic Corp (4631 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s CPAF will drop from 3 to 2.7 and there will be further selling in March 2025 as the CPAF drops to 2.4 (or possibly even 2.1!) </li>
<li>Passives will need to buy 7-15x ADV (13-14% of real float) in the adds and sell 2.7-6.5x ADV in the deletes. There is a big reverse funding trade too.</li>
</ul>



Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP) and Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) will replace Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP) and Dic Corp (4631 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). 

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s CPAF will drop from 3 to 2.7 and there will be further selling in March 2025 as the CPAF drops to 2.4 (or possibly even 2.1!) 
Passives will need to buy 7-15x ADV (13-14% of real float) in the adds and sell 2.7-6.5x ADV in the deletes. There is a big reverse funding trade too.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Nov 7th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD20,487m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SoftBank, Advantest, Fujikura, Sanrio, Socionext, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Nintendo, Recruit, IHI, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Softbank, Advantest, Fujikura, Sanrio, Socionext.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Nov 7th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD20,487m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SoftBank, Advantest, Fujikura, Sanrio, Socionext, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Nintendo, Recruit, IHI, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Softbank, Advantest, Fujikura, Sanrio, Socionext.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Nov 7th): SoftBank, Advantest, Fujikura, Sanrio, Socionext

Equity Capital Markets

Alebund Pharmaceuticals Jiangsu / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Alebund Pharmaceuticals, a China-based clinical-stage biotech company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. Jefferies, BoA, and HTSC are the joint sponsors.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the company’s history and its core product, AP301, and AP306.</li>
<li>We are of the view that the company is worth following.</li>
</ul>


Alebund Pharmaceuticals, a China-based clinical-stage biotech company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. Jefferies, BoA, and HTSC are the joint sponsors.
In this note, we look at the company’s history and its core product, AP301, and AP306.
We are of the view that the company is worth following.


Alebund (礼邦生物) Pre-IPO Quick Take: A Niche Renal Specialist

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> reported H1FY26 revenue of ¥2,220B, down 7%, primarily attributable to unfavorable foreign exchange and lower sales of Vyvanse.</li>
<li>Takeda revised its FY26 guidance downwards expecting lower sales and margins, reflecting near term headwinds amid cost control.</li>
<li>Six of these late-stage programs are estimated to have the potential to generate peak revenues ranging from $10B to $20B in total and contribute to long-term growth.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) reported H1FY26 revenue of ¥2,220B, down 7%, primarily attributable to unfavorable foreign exchange and lower sales of Vyvanse.
Takeda revised its FY26 guidance downwards expecting lower sales and margins, reflecting near term headwinds amid cost control.
Six of these late-stage programs are estimated to have the potential to generate peak revenues ranging from $10B to $20B in total and contribute to long-term growth.


Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Guidance Revised Downwards; Vyvance Continue To Be a Pain Point

Japan

Chugai Pharmaceutical Company Ltd., manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals in the domestic and international markets through its subsidiaries. The Company develops drugs in the fields of cancer, infectious diseases, bone, blood, and circulatory systems. Chugai Pharmaceutical also conducts research studies on drugs with private and public medical research institutions.

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Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)

EQD | Nikkei 225 Option Opportunity – Earn Premium in Sideways Markets with Straddles

Investors can earn a premium by using a short straddle strategy on the Nikkei 225, which has been trading sideways for the past eleven weeks.

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Nomura Research Institute and Ryohin Keikaku replace Nippon Paper and DIC in the Nikkei 225. Fast Retailing will be capped (and probably again in...

Brian Freitas

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Nov 7th): SoftBank, Advantest, Fujikura, Sanrio, Socionext

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted SoftBank (9984 JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Fujikura (5803 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Alebund (礼邦生物) Pre-IPO Quick Take: A Niche Renal Specialist

China's Alebund Pharmaceuticals seeks to raise $100 million through a HK listing. The company has an interesting set of products for kidney diseases.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Guidance Revised Downwards; Vyvance Continue To Be a Pain Point

Takeda Pharmaceutical reports revenue decline in H1FY26, revises guidance downwards due to lower sales of Vyvance and Entyvio, but expects long...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EQD | Nikkei 225 Option Opportunity – Earn Premium in Sideways Markets with Straddles

​Investors can earn a premium by using a short straddle strategy on the Nikkei 225, which has been trading sideways for the past eleven weeks.

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Nomura Research Institute and Ryohin Keikaku replace Nippon Paper and DIC in the Nikkei 225. Fast Retailing will be capped (and probably again in...

Brian Freitas

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Nov 7th): SoftBank, Advantest, Fujikura, Sanrio, Socionext

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted SoftBank (9984 JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Fujikura (5803 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Alebund (礼邦生物) Pre-IPO Quick Take: A Niche Renal Specialist

​China's Alebund Pharmaceuticals seeks to raise $100 million through a HK listing. The company has an interesting set of products for kidney diseases.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Guidance Revised Downwards; Vyvance Continue To Be a Pain Point

​Takeda Pharmaceutical reports revenue decline in H1FY26, revises guidance downwards due to lower sales of Vyvance and Entyvio, but expects long...

Tina Banerjee

Investors can earn a premium by using a short straddle strategy on the Nikkei 225, which has been trading sideways for the past eleven weeks.

China's Alebund Pharmaceuticals seeks to raise $100 million through a HK listing. The company has an interesting set of products for kidney diseases.

Takeda Pharmaceutical reports revenue decline in H1FY26, revises guidance downwards due to lower sales of Vyvance and Entyvio, but expects long...