Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 6 companies that listed in October 2025 where the lock-up for cornerstone investors ends in the next 5 weeks.</li>
<li>The total lock-up expiry across companies is HK$12.6bn (US$1.6bn) with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-industry-co-ltd-8806deaf-04c9-4411-b1ee-92e813b9c5e0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45955:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jst-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39885:1" rel="noopener">JST Group (6687 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cig-shanghai-co-ltd-55f0be8f-8288-4e62-96ac-7bbd6c760e02" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46336:1" rel="noopener">CIG Shanghai (6166 HK)</a> making up the bulk of it.</li>
<li>The cornerstone investor lock-up expiry will increase the number of free float shares between 11-424% and some of the stocks could come under pressure ahead of the expiry.</li>
</ul>


There are 6 companies that listed in October 2025 where the lock-up for cornerstone investors ends in the next 5 weeks.
The total lock-up expiry across companies is HK$12.6bn (US$1.6bn) with Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK), JST Group (6687 HK) and CIG Shanghai (6166 HK) making up the bulk of it.
The cornerstone investor lock-up expiry will increase the number of free float shares between 11-424% and some of the stocks could come under pressure ahead of the expiry.


HK: Cornerstone/Pre-IPO Lock-Up Expiries in April

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Shenzhen Zhaowei Machinery & Electronics / Equity Capital Markets

Shenzhen Zhaowei Machinery & Electronics (2692 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-zhaowei-machinery-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46000:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Zhaowei Machinery (2692 HK)</a>'s IPO does not look attractive, as valuations are not cheap relative to peers, despite a steep 45.6% discount to A-share. </li>
<li>At the maximum IPO price of HK$73.68, Zhaowei will trade on a PER of 50.1x for FY26F and 40.8x for FY27F. Global peers are, on average, just 16.9x.</li>
<li>Even if we park its HA discount alongside its close peer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-sanhua-intelligent-controls-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45277:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK)</a>, it will only mean 6.5% upside from the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



Shenzhen Zhaowei Machinery (2692 HK)'s IPO does not look attractive, as valuations are not cheap relative to peers, despite a steep 45.6% discount to A-share. 
At the maximum IPO price of HK$73.68, Zhaowei will trade on a PER of 50.1x for FY26F and 40.8x for FY27F. Global peers are, on average, just 16.9x.
Even if we park its HA discount alongside its close peer, Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK), it will only mean 6.5% upside from the IPO price.


Shenzhen Zhaowei (2692 HK) IPO: Limited Near-Term Upside

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipmen / Equity Capital Markets

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipmen (300450 CH)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-lead-intelligent-equipmen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27971:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment (470 HK)</a> has a lukewarm H-share IPO response, but is still priced at the maximum of HK$45.80. This places it on 29.2x PER for FY26F.</li>
<li>We consider an appropriate HA discount to be roughly 25-30%, implying a fair value of HK$45.6-48.8, or 6.6% downside/upside, and it is almost fairly-valued. </li>
<li>At the top-end of our estimated fair value, its multiples do not appear attractive against the A-share and other global peers, so HK$48.8 is the ceiling. </li>
</ul>



Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment (470 HK) has a lukewarm H-share IPO response, but is still priced at the maximum of HK$45.80. This places it on 29.2x PER for FY26F.
We consider an appropriate HA discount to be roughly 25-30%, implying a fair value of HK$45.6-48.8, or 6.6% downside/upside, and it is almost fairly-valued. 
At the top-end of our estimated fair value, its multiples do not appear attractive against the A-share and other global peers, so HK$48.8 is the ceiling. 


Wuxi Lead Equipment (470 HK): Almost Fair

China

CIG Shanghai engages in the research, development, production, and sale of information and communications technology products. Its offerings include telecommunications broadband terminals, wireless network equipment, smart home gateways, industrial hardware and software, and high-speed optical modules for home, enterprise, industrial, telecom, and data center applications. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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CIG Shanghai (6166 HK)

HK: Cornerstone/Pre-IPO Lock-Up Expiries in April

There are 6 companies that listed in Oct where the lock-up for cornerstone investors ends in April. JST has a pre-IPO expiry too. The total lock-up...

Brian Freitas

Shenzhen Zhaowei (2692 HK) IPO: Limited Near-Term Upside

Shenzhen Zhaowei Machinery's IPO is not particularly attractive at HK$73.68 due to high valuations compared to peers, despite a significant 45.6%...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Wuxi Lead Equipment (470 HK): Almost Fair

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment's lukewarm IPO response leads to a fair value estimate of HK$45.6-48.8, suggesting it is almost fairly-valued with...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK: Cornerstone/Pre-IPO Lock-Up Expiries in April

There are 6 companies that listed in Oct where the lock-up for cornerstone investors ends in April. JST has a pre-IPO expiry too. The total lock-up...

Brian Freitas

Shenzhen Zhaowei (2692 HK) IPO: Limited Near-Term Upside

​Shenzhen Zhaowei Machinery's IPO is not particularly attractive at HK$73.68 due to high valuations compared to peers, despite a significant 45.6%...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Wuxi Lead Equipment (470 HK): Almost Fair

​Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment's lukewarm IPO response leads to a fair value estimate of HK$45.6-48.8, suggesting it is almost fairly-valued with...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Shenzhen Zhaowei Machinery's IPO is not particularly attractive at HK$73.68 due to high valuations compared to peers, despite a significant 45.6%...

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment's lukewarm IPO response leads to a fair value estimate of HK$45.6-48.8, suggesting it is almost fairly-valued with...