Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>There’s a gold rush in the world of AI for not just GPUs, but for datacenters and the power connections that supply them.</li><li>Imagine this, you just bought 100,000 GPUs from Nvidia and you don’t have a place to put them or the power to feed them.</li><li>Not being first to market is a huge cost, as the GPU pay back times are very quick right now even for the H100.</li></ul>

There’s a gold rush in the world of AI for not just GPUs, but for datacenters and the power connections that supply them.Imagine this, you just bought 100,000 GPUs from Nvidia and you don’t have a place to put them or the power to feed them.Not being first to market is a huge cost, as the GPU pay back times are very quick right now even for the H100.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our near-term outlook on SPX and QQQ to neutral last week (11/19/25), after being bullish since 4/22/25, while we maintained our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of 5/14/25).</li>
<li>Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are back to being near-term bullish as long as these supports continue to hold</li>
<li>The latest pullback offers an attractive entry point into all the speculative growth areas that we were pounding the table on since May, WITH A STOP AT LAST WEEKS LOWS</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our near-term outlook on SPX and QQQ to neutral last week (11/19/25), after being bullish since 4/22/25, while we maintained our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of 5/14/25).
Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are back to being near-term bullish as long as these supports continue to hold
The latest pullback offers an attractive entry point into all the speculative growth areas that we were pounding the table on since May, WITH A STOP AT LAST WEEKS LOWS


Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Marathon Digital Holdings / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil (XOM US)</a>'s acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pioneer-natural-resources" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10341:1" rel="noopener">Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vistra-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27958:1" rel="noopener">Vistra (VST US)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> at the close on 7 May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marathon-digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33244:1" rel="noopener">Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US)</a> is an add to the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index and the stock could move higher till implementation.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marathon-digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33244:1" rel="noopener">Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US)</a> stock has underperformed its close peers this year and the ratio of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marathon-digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33244:1" rel="noopener">Marathon Digital Holdings</a> stock price to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bitcoin-usd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25895:1" rel="noopener">Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)</a> is near the lows.</li>
</ul>


Following Exxon Mobil (XOM US)'s acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Vistra (VST US) will be added to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) at the close on 7 May.

Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US) is an add to the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index and the stock could move higher till implementation.

Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US) stock has underperformed its close peers this year and the ratio of Marathon Digital Holdings stock price to Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY) is near the lows.


S&P500 Index Rebalance: Bitcoin Miner Is a SPCY Add

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin could find the bottom and strongly rebounded in 1Q23. We believe BTC mining companies could be sellers of crypto assets on strong bounce and limit room for further upside. </li>
<li>Our bear case scenario assumes an average BTC price of $25K in 2023 with an opportunity to reach as high as $30K. Leading crypto miners began to offload Bitcoin holdings. </li>
<li>Investors should be more selective on the crypto miner names during a prolonged bear market. Our top picks include Marathon Digital Holdings, Riot Blockchain, and Cipher Mining. </li>
</ul>


Bitcoin could find the bottom and strongly rebounded in 1Q23. We believe BTC mining companies could be sellers of crypto assets on strong bounce and limit room for further upside. 
Our bear case scenario assumes an average BTC price of $25K in 2023 with an opportunity to reach as high as $30K. Leading crypto miners began to offload Bitcoin holdings. 
Investors should be more selective on the crypto miner names during a prolonged bear market. Our top picks include Marathon Digital Holdings, Riot Blockchain, and Cipher Mining. 


Crypto Mining Industry Series: Strong Start In 2023. Bitcoin Is Up ~40% YTD

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin mining companies continue to suffer from crypto winter’s market conditions: substantial drop in mining rig prices, low cryptocurrency prices, heightened volatility, and unprofitable mining operations.</li>
<li>We are looking for bright spots and believe Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Blockchain will survive the crypto winter with the opportunity to win market share in the coming years.</li>
<li>Our analysis suggests all-in-breakeven costs (miner costs+power costs+OpEx) of the most efficient BTC mining companies to mine a BTC close to the current BTC price of ~$20,000. </li>
</ul>


Bitcoin mining companies continue to suffer from crypto winter’s market conditions: substantial drop in mining rig prices, low cryptocurrency prices, heightened volatility, and unprofitable mining operations.
We are looking for bright spots and believe Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Blockchain will survive the crypto winter with the opportunity to win market share in the coming years.
Our analysis suggests all-in-breakeven costs (miner costs+power costs+OpEx) of the most efficient BTC mining companies to mine a BTC close to the current BTC price of ~$20,000. 


Crypto Mining Industry Series: Looking For Bright Spots As The Darkest Months Ahead

United States

Cipher Mining Inc. provides financial services. The Company offers Bitcoin mining services. Cipher Mining serves customers worldwide.

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Cipher Mining (CIFR US)

Crypto Datacenters NAV

There’s a gold rush in the world of AI for not just GPUs, but for datacenters and the power connections that supply them.

Fabricated Knowledge

Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

Back to Near-Term Bullish on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $NDX; Crucial Supports Held at 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on $QQQ, we are near-term bullish as...

Vermilion Research

S&P500 Index Rebalance: Bitcoin Miner Is a SPCY Add

ExxonMobil's acquisition will lead to Vistra being added to the SPX. Marathon Digital is an inclusion to the SmallCap 600 index and there could be...

Brian Freitas

Crypto Mining Industry Series: Strong Start In 2023. Bitcoin Is Up ~40% YTD

We believe the crypto contagion is finally over, and a rally in Bitcoin may restore investor confidence after 12 months of a bear market

Andrei Zakharov

Crypto Mining Industry Series: Looking For Bright Spots As The Darkest Months Ahead

Crypto mining industry suffers from low BTC prices, high energy costs, and increased mining difficulty, putting some BTC miners on the verge of the...

Andrei Zakharov

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