Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Volatility finally picked up last Friday, and the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) both gapped lower to close below their 20-day MAs for the first time in over three months.</li>
<li>With that said, all of the major indexes (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IWM) rallied yesterday to fill their gaps from Friday and SPX and QQQ have reclaimed above their 20-day MAs. </li>
<li>This is a bullish signal that suggests any further pullback is likely to be relatively shallow, and should be treated as a buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Volatility finally picked up last Friday, and the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) both gapped lower to close below their 20-day MAs for the first time in over three months.
With that said, all of the major indexes (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IWM) rallied yesterday to fill their gaps from Friday and SPX and QQQ have reclaimed above their 20-day MAs. 
This is a bullish signal that suggests any further pullback is likely to be relatively shallow, and should be treated as a buying opportunity.


Was That It?; Downgrading Discretionary and Energy; Gr/Val Breakout; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Ligent Technologies / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ligent-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45722:1" rel="noopener">Ligent Technologies (9856 HK)</a> is an optical communication and connectivity products provider. It is seeking to raise US$723 million at HK$32.96 per share.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ligent-technologies-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:266547" rel="noopener">Ligent Technologies IPO: The Investment Case</a></em></strong>. </li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price is attractive.</li>
</ul>



Ligent Technologies (9856 HK) is an optical communication and connectivity products provider. It is seeking to raise US$723 million at HK$32.96 per share.
I previously discussed the IPO in Ligent Technologies IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price is attractive.


Ligent Technologies (9856 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ligent-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45722:1" rel="noopener">Ligent Technologies (9856 HK)</a>' IPO looks to raise HK$5.4bn at HK$32.96/share. This optical communication and connectivity product provider, however, does not stand out. </li>
<li>It will benefit from the current AI investment trend, driving a 3-year EPS CAGR of 59.7%. With Hisense Group being its controlling shareholder, it can leverage on this relationship.</li>
<li>Its 1H26 gross margin is low, hence difficult to justify a premium. Optimistically, it can trade on par with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cig-shanghai-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46336:1" rel="noopener">CIG Shanghai (6166 HK)</a>'s 10.7x FY27 PER, equalling HK$36.06. </li>
</ul>



Ligent Technologies (9856 HK)' IPO looks to raise HK$5.4bn at HK$32.96/share. This optical communication and connectivity product provider, however, does not stand out. 
It will benefit from the current AI investment trend, driving a 3-year EPS CAGR of 59.7%. With Hisense Group being its controlling shareholder, it can leverage on this relationship.
Its 1H26 gross margin is low, hence difficult to justify a premium. Optimistically, it can trade on par with CIG Shanghai (6166 HK)'s 10.7x FY27 PER, equalling HK$36.06. 


Ligent Technologies (9856 HK) IPO: Low Expectations

Market Intelligence, ORTEX

ORTEX Market Intel

Market Intelligence

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Short sellers made bold moves the week of August 31.</li><li>MOO saw the most dramatic buildup - short interest tripled in seven days.</li><li>At the other end, MSFT shorts nearly disappeared entirely, and GME saw rapid covering ahead of its September 8 earnings.</li></ul>

Short sellers made bold moves the week of August 31.MOO saw the most dramatic buildup - short interest tripled in seven days.At the other end, MSFT shorts nearly disappeared entirely, and GME saw rapid covering ahead of its September 8 earnings.

Bears Press Hard: MOO Triples, GME Covers, MSFT Shorts Vanish

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This week will be a lightning-fast one. I need to cover a lot, so I’ll give high-level summaries instead of going deep unless necessary. I will be honest - it’s a bit scuffed, but if I don’t put it out, I’ll get further behind on semiconductor earnings.</li>
<li>On semiconductor beat on Chinese industrial strength. It looks cheap.</li>
<li>Lattice is likely stuffing the channel, and the divergence between AMD’s embedded and Lattice means their channel is worse off. Amkor saw real weakness in industrial, and that’s what made the guide miss. Arista had a clean beat; I think they are sandbagging forward revenue.</li>
</ul>


This week will be a lightning-fast one. I need to cover a lot, so I’ll give high-level summaries instead of going deep unless necessary. I will be honest - it’s a bit scuffed, but if I don’t put it out, I’ll get further behind on semiconductor earnings.
On semiconductor beat on Chinese industrial strength. It looks cheap.
Lattice is likely stuffing the channel, and the divergence between AMD’s embedded and Lattice means their channel is worse off. Amkor saw real weakness in industrial, and that’s what made the guide miss. Arista had a clean beat; I think they are sandbagging forward revenue.


Earnings: ON, LSCC, RMBS, AMKR, ANET, AMD

United States

Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells Internet Protocol (IP)-based networking and other products related to the communications and information technology (IT) industry and provide services associated with these products and their use. The Company provides products for transporting data, voice, and video within buildings, across campuses, and globally.

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Cisco Systems (CSCO US)

Was That It?; Downgrading Discretionary and Energy; Gr/Val Breakout; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On

Was That It? $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Discretionary $XLY to market weight and Energy $XLE to underweight; Growth vs. Value Breaking Out; Market...

Vermilion Research

Ligent Technologies (9856 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Ligent is an optical communication and connectivity products provider. It is seeking to raise US$723 million at HK$32.96 per share. In this note, I...

Arun George

Ligent Technologies (9856 HK) IPO: Low Expectations

Ligent's IPO is not particularly attractive, given its low margin against peers and mid-tier industry position. It is cheap though, and at par to...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Bears Press Hard: MOO Triples, GME Covers, MSFT Shorts Vanish

Short sellers made bold moves the week of August 31. MOO saw the most dramatic buildup - short interest tripled in seven days. At the other end,...

ORTEX Market Intel

Earnings: ON, LSCC, RMBS, AMKR, ANET, AMD

This week will be a lightning-fast one. I need to cover a lot, so I’ll give high-level summaries instead of going deep unless necessary. I will be...

Fabricated Knowledge

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