IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a> has entered a scheme implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a> at 0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share. The scheme meeting is targeted for 3Q.</li>
<li>While the offer is not a knockout bid, the 15% increase in Alcoa shares lowers the headcount risk from retail opposition and lowers the bump potential. </li>
<li>Regulatory approvals are a formality, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-resources-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4408:1" rel="noopener">Citic Resources Holdings (1205 HK)</a> lack of support reflects HKEx listing requirements. At the last close, the gross spread was 3.4%.</li>
</ul>



Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Alcoa (AA US) at 0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share. The scheme meeting is targeted for 3Q.
While the offer is not a knockout bid, the 15% increase in Alcoa shares lowers the headcount risk from retail opposition and lowers the bump potential. 
Regulatory approvals are a formality, and Citic Resources Holdings (1205 HK) lack of support reflects HKEx listing requirements. At the last close, the gross spread was 3.4%.


Alumina (AWC AU): Alcoa’s Binding Proposal Aided by Alcoa’s Re-Rating

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On the 26 February, via an <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02776932-3A637267" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NBIO</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a> offered 0.02854 of its own shares for each <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a> share, a 13% premium to last close.</li>
<li>Alcoa/Alumina control 60%/40% of the AWAC JV, an owner and operator of global bauxite mines and alumina refineries. Both companies have now entered into a Scheme on the same terms. </li>
<li>Alcoa holds 19.9% in AWC after reaching an agreement with Allan Gray Australia. The key risks to the deal are FIRB approval and how CITIC, holding 18.9%, will respond.</li>
</ul>


On the 26 February, via an NBIO, Alcoa (AA US) offered 0.02854 of its own shares for each Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) share, a 13% premium to last close.
Alcoa/Alumina control 60%/40% of the AWAC JV, an owner and operator of global bauxite mines and alumina refineries. Both companies have now entered into a Scheme on the same terms. 
Alcoa holds 19.9% in AWC after reaching an agreement with Allan Gray Australia. The key risks to the deal are FIRB approval and how CITIC, holding 18.9%, will respond.


Alumina/Alcoa: Binding Agreement On The Same Terms

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apm-human-services-internation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34808:1" rel="noopener">APM Human Services Internation (APM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/probiotec-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12047:1" rel="noopener">Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genetron-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28435:1" rel="noopener">Genetron Holdings Ltd (GTH US)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/payroll-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33434:1" rel="noopener">Payroll (4489 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welbe-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31118:1" rel="noopener">Welbe Inc (6556 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: APM Human Services Internation (APM AU), Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Genetron Holdings Ltd (GTH US). 
Lowest spreads: Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Payroll (4489 JP), Welbe Inc (6556 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (11 Mar) - Shinko, JSR, Azure, Genex, OreCorp, Hollysys, CPMC, Vinda

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-express-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18582:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Express Holdings (9147 JP)</a> placement and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> lock-up expiry.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinda-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:475:1" rel="noopener">Vinda International (3331 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Trial Holdings (5882 JP) IPO, Nippon Express Holdings (9147 JP) placement and ARM Holdings (ARM US) lock-up expiry.
Event-Driven developments: JSR Corp (4185 JP), Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), Vinda International (3331 HK). 


Weekly Deals Digest (10 Mar) - Trial, ARM, JSR, Nippon Express, Alumina, Azure, Genex, Vinda

<ul>
<li>I have received several questions from readers on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a>’s non-binding proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a> in the context of the current gross spread of 9.2%. </li>
<li>The questions primarily concerned <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-resources-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4408:1" rel="noopener">Citic Resources Holdings (1205 HK)</a> voting intentions, the probability of a bump and the likelihood of Aloca shareholders supporting the transaction. </li>
<li>CITIC Resources' lack of public endorsement of the transaction is due to HKEx listing requirements and not an indication of a NO vote risk.  </li>
</ul>


I have received several questions from readers on Alcoa (AA US)’s non-binding proposal for Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) in the context of the current gross spread of 9.2%. 
The questions primarily concerned Citic Resources Holdings (1205 HK) voting intentions, the probability of a bump and the likelihood of Aloca shareholders supporting the transaction. 
CITIC Resources' lack of public endorsement of the transaction is due to HKEx listing requirements and not an indication of a NO vote risk.  


Alumina (AWC AU): Further Thoughts on Alcoa’s Proposal

Hong Kong

CITIC Resources is a natural resources company primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and coal, as well as investments in aluminum smelting and commodities trading. The company's operations span China, Australia, Kazakhstan, and Indonesia. It was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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CITIC Resources (1205 HK)

Alumina (AWC AU): Alcoa’s Binding Proposal Aided by Alcoa’s Re-Rating

While the offer is not a knockout bid, the 15% increase in Alcoa shares lowers the headcount risk from retail opposition and lowers the bump...

Arun George

Alumina/Alcoa: Binding Agreement On The Same Terms

Reg approvals should be fine. CITIC should be supportive. Current gross/annualised spread of 3.6%/8.0%, assuming late-Aug completion. Look to short...

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (11 Mar) - Shinko, JSR, Azure, Genex, OreCorp, Hollysys, CPMC, Vinda

This week, the highest gross spreads are APM (18.7%), Probiotec (10.9%), Genex Power (10.0%), China TCM (6.5%), Genetron (5.7%), Alumina (5.3%),...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (10 Mar) - Trial, ARM, JSR, Nippon Express, Alumina, Azure, Genex, Vinda

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (JSR, Alumina, Azure, Genex, Vinda) and ECM (ARM, Trial Holdings, Nippon Express).

Arun George

Alumina (AWC AU): Further Thoughts on Alcoa’s Proposal

Readers have asked about CITIC Resources' voting intentions, the probability of a bump, and the likelihood of Aloca shareholders supporting the...

Arun George

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