Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China considers launching a stock stabilization fund which could release RmB800B in liquidity support for the market.  Securities firms and insurance companies will be the major beneficiaries.</li>
<li>The mega merger between  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a> could be the precursor to further industry consolidation.</li>
<li>Hong Kong trading volumes and IPO's set to surge as Beijing lifts sentiment.</li>
</ul>


China considers launching a stock stabilization fund which could release RmB800B in liquidity support for the market.  Securities firms and insurance companies will be the major beneficiaries.
The mega merger between  Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK) and Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) could be the precursor to further industry consolidation.
Hong Kong trading volumes and IPO's set to surge as Beijing lifts sentiment.


Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>Continued tailwinds for oil tanker stocks with tight markets keeping rates high</li>
<li>The copper supply and demand story is becoming more widely known and speculative interest is rising</li>
<li>Oil corrects  as the geopolitical premium subsides,but the longer-term story remains intact</li>
</ul>


Continued tailwinds for oil tanker stocks with tight markets keeping rates high
The copper supply and demand story is becoming more widely known and speculative interest is rising
Oil corrects  as the geopolitical premium subsides,but the longer-term story remains intact


Update on Some of the HK Commodity Stocks We Follow

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.</li>
<li>Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.</li>
<li>Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.
Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.
Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.


HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China International Capital Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

<ul>
<li>While still progressing, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a>'s merger will boost earnings. For 1Q26, the combined group will have seen a 66.9% earnings growth. </li>
<li>The IPO market boom is beneficial to CICC. YTD, it has a 36.9% share of the number of deals and 39.4% share in funds raised in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>Assuming completion by end-Sep, CICC will trade at 8.8x PER for FY27, a 26% premium to the sector average. However, its leadership position and the potential synergy support this.</li>
</ul>


While still progressing, China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)'s merger will boost earnings. For 1Q26, the combined group will have seen a 66.9% earnings growth. 
The IPO market boom is beneficial to CICC. YTD, it has a 36.9% share of the number of deals and 39.4% share in funds raised in Hong Kong.
Assuming completion by end-Sep, CICC will trade at 8.8x PER for FY27, a 26% premium to the sector average. However, its leadership position and the potential synergy support this.


CICC (3908 HK): It's Getting More Interesting

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

COSCO SHIPPING Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> now 5% through. CATL 10% through will help.</li>
<li>It feels like there were some concentrated shorts on H vs A. BYD performance on CATL and Hang Seng upweight/inclusion exacerbate the issue. CATL H less liquid than people think.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) now 5% through. CATL 10% through will help.
It feels like there were some concentrated shorts on H vs A. BYD performance on CATL and Hang Seng upweight/inclusion exacerbate the issue. CATL H less liquid than people think.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract, H Premia Names Perform Best; Batteries!

China

CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities services. The Company provides securities brokerage, securities trading, securities underwriting, and other services. CITIC Securities also provides investment banking, asset management, investment consulting, and other services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Citic Securities (A) (600030 CH)

Hong Kong/China Brokers: TAKE THE OFFER!

The HK/China brokers: 6030, 3908, 6886, 6806, 6881, 1776, 6178, 1456, 165, and 6099 have gained between 90% and 100% since the report was published...

David Mudd

Update on Some of the HK Commodity Stocks We Follow

Revisiting some of the Hong Kong commodity stocks we have highlighted previously. Tanker rates remain high, copper demand grows amid speculation,...

Rikki Malik

China Macro: Sector Positioning Update

Sector positioning among active China Funds. Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Energy shows signs of a turnaround, whilst...

Steven Holden

CICC (3908 HK): It's Getting More Interesting

Merger boosts earnings for CICC, as the combined group's earnings surged 66.9% in 1Q26. It led the Hong Kong IPO market with strong growth and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 May 2025): AH Premia Contract, H Premia Names Perform Best; Batteries!

AH Premia contract again. Interestingly, the best performing tranche of discount was stocks where Hs trade at a premium to As. BYD squeezed. CATL a...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hong Kong/China Brokers: TAKE THE OFFER!

The HK/China brokers: 6030, 3908, 6886, 6806, 6881, 1776, 6178, 1456, 165, and 6099 have gained between 90% and 100% since the report was published...

David Mudd

Update on Some of the HK Commodity Stocks We Follow

Revisiting some of the Hong Kong commodity stocks we have highlighted previously. ​Tanker rates remain high, copper demand grows amid speculation,...

Rikki Malik

China Macro: Sector Positioning Update

Sector positioning among active China Funds. Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Energy shows signs of a turnaround, whilst...

Steven Holden

CICC (3908 HK): It's Getting More Interesting

​Merger boosts earnings for CICC, as the combined group's earnings surged 66.9% in 1Q26. It led the Hong Kong IPO market with strong growth and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 May 2025): AH Premia Contract, H Premia Names Perform Best; Batteries!

AH Premia contract again. Interestingly, the best performing tranche of discount was stocks where Hs trade at a premium to As. BYD squeezed. CATL a...

Travis Lundy

Revisiting some of the Hong Kong commodity stocks we have highlighted previously. Tanker rates remain high, copper demand grows amid speculation,...

Merger boosts earnings for CICC, as the combined group's earnings surged 66.9% in 1Q26. It led the Hong Kong IPO market with strong growth and...