Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns</li>
<li>Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada</li>
</ul>


We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns
Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend
Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada


Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.
$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With the US interest rate heading lower, the HSI constituent companies with the highest gearing levels are the prime beneficiaries as their interest burden will lessen.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a>, while it has the highest leverage, is not a near-term gain. This is because its debt structure with 100% fixed rate borrowings. </li>
<li>Based on the gearing level, floating rate proportion, and YTD performance, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> are the two potential best bets.</li>
</ul>


With the US interest rate heading lower, the HSI constituent companies with the highest gearing levels are the prime beneficiaries as their interest burden will lessen.

Sands China (1928 HK), while it has the highest leverage, is not a near-term gain. This is because its debt structure with 100% fixed rate borrowings. 
Based on the gearing level, floating rate proportion, and YTD performance, New World Development (17 HK) and Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) are the two potential best bets.


HK Strategy: Rate Cut Beneficiaries - Fixed & Floating Rate Debt Analysis

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

<ul>
<li>The wait is finally over.  The Fed delivered a 50bps rate cut in September meeting, kick- starting a new rate cut cycle</li>
<li>The rate cut is an absolute game changer for Hong Kong real estate.  Physical market will recover with lower mortgage rate and companies will enjoy lower borrow rate</li>
<li>With the macro backdrop in US and China, Hong Kong is well positioned for as strong re-rating with mega catalysts ahead – Buy HK real estate, especially SHKP and NWD</li>
</ul>


The wait is finally over.  The Fed delivered a 50bps rate cut in September meeting, kick- starting a new rate cut cycle
The rate cut is an absolute game changer for Hong Kong real estate.  Physical market will recover with lower mortgage rate and companies will enjoy lower borrow rate
With the macro backdrop in US and China, Hong Kong is well positioned for as strong re-rating with mega catalysts ahead – Buy HK real estate, especially SHKP and NWD


HK RE Series (4) With Macro Backdrop in US & China, HK Is Positioned for a Strong Rerating, Buy Now!

<ul>
<li>We look at the global macro themes that are impacting the equity market including the US election, the Fed and China's latest rate cut</li>
<li>We also look at the latest condition in Hong Kong, including the rates, the economy and the physical RE market</li>
<li>HK RE stocks continue to trade at compelling valuation, but fund flows are needed if we want a re-rating</li>
</ul>


We look at the global macro themes that are impacting the equity market including the US election, the Fed and China's latest rate cut
We also look at the latest condition in Hong Kong, including the rates, the economy and the physical RE market
HK RE stocks continue to trade at compelling valuation, but fund flows are needed if we want a re-rating


HK RE Series (3): Global Macro Starts to Turn More Supportive, Stock Valuation Is Compelling

Hong Kong

CK Asset Holdings is a multinational conglomerate primarily engaged in property development and investment, hotel and serviced suite operation, and property and project management. The company also has interests in aircraft leasing, pub operations, and infrastructure and utility assets. It was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

CK Asset Holdings (1113 HK)

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives; Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities....

Vermilion Research

Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Continue Adding Exposure to China; $ACWI Short-Term Supports for this pullback: $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. Pullbacks = buy opportunities,...

Vermilion Research

HK Strategy: Rate Cut Beneficiaries - Fixed & Floating Rate Debt Analysis

With the Fed hinting at a slower rate cut path, the beneficiaries mentioned in this Insight will turn to suffer more. The names with the highest...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK RE Series (4) With Macro Backdrop in US & China, HK Is Positioned for a Strong Rerating, Buy Now!

Under the Fed's rate cut in US and huge economic stimulus in China, we think Hong Kong is well positioned for a rerating. Real estate will benefit...

Jacob Cheng

HK RE Series (3): Global Macro Starts to Turn More Supportive, Stock Valuation Is Compelling

In this update, we explored the macro themes, including US presidential election, the Fed and China's rate cut and their impact on HK RE stocks. We...

Jacob Cheng

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)