Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last week, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener"><strong>CK Hutchison (1 HK)</strong></a><strong> </strong><a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0813/2026081300222.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> a 6.1% and 6.4% lift in 1H26 revenue and underlying net profit (excluding one-off items) to HK$241.6bn and HK$12.6bn. Pretty decent numbers.</li>
<li>End-July, CKH offloaded its 49% stake in VodafoneThree for US$5.8bn. No mention of the AS Watson IPO in the results or the anaylsts' call. Reportedly it's been delayed to 2027.</li>
<li>The Panama port cessation incurred a HK$496mn hit to EBITDA. CKH has now announced a  Investment Treaty Arbitration against the Panamanian Republic, an entirely separate claim to the contractual arbitration.</li>
</ul>


Last week, CK Hutchison (1 HK) reported a 6.1% and 6.4% lift in 1H26 revenue and underlying net profit (excluding one-off items) to HK$241.6bn and HK$12.6bn. Pretty decent numbers.
End-July, CKH offloaded its 49% stake in VodafoneThree for US$5.8bn. No mention of the AS Watson IPO in the results or the anaylsts' call. Reportedly it's been delayed to 2027.
The Panama port cessation incurred a HK$496mn hit to EBITDA. CKH has now announced a  Investment Treaty Arbitration against the Panamanian Republic, an entirely separate claim to the contractual arbitration.


CK Hutchison (1 HK) Ratches Up Panama Canal Legal Wrangling

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

<ul>
<li>Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).</li>
<li>The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.</li>
<li>Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors</li>
</ul>


Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).
The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.
Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors


Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Singapore Telecommunications / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.</li>
<li>We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level</li>
</ul>


Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.
We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).
While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level


MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Indexes have plunged since violating our "lines-in-the-sand" of 3875 on EURO STOXX 50, 14,815 on the DAX, $54 on ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI(ACWI-US).</li>
<li>More recently, Japan’s TOPIX broke below the key 1840 level, as the number of countries breaking down increases.</li>
<li>We remain bearish at the index level as long as these indexes continue to make lower highs, and we expect that any bottoming process would take weeks/months to develop.</li>
</ul>


Indexes have plunged since violating our "lines-in-the-sand" of 3875 on EURO STOXX 50, 14,815 on the DAX, $54 on ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI(ACWI-US).
More recently, Japan’s TOPIX broke below the key 1840 level, as the number of countries breaking down increases.
We remain bearish at the index level as long as these indexes continue to make lower highs, and we expect that any bottoming process would take weeks/months to develop.


Monitoring For A Bottom; Focus On Defensives

Hong Kong

CK Infrastructure is a global infrastructure company with diversified investments in energy, transportation, water, and waste management sectors. It also produces construction materials like cement and asphalt. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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CK Infrastructure (1038 HK)

CK Hutchison (1 HK) Ratches Up Panama Canal Legal Wrangling

At a ~52% discount to NAV and a forward P/B of 0.47x, CKH remains inexpensive. Further assets sales/IPOs (ports, telcos, utilities, supermarkets)...

David Blennerhassett

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Despite the intact downtrend on Japan's TOPIX, relative strength is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend; this tells us Japan is emerging as...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

We are testing the March lows in several global indexes, including the MSCI $ACWI, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and EM $EEM. While this is a logical spot for...

Vermilion Research

Monitoring For A Bottom; Focus On Defensives

Defensive Sectors including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities are emerging as leadership -- add exposure. Today we are focusing on...

Vermilion Research

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