Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion (533 HK)</a>'s spectacular Scheme fail, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soundwill-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19318:1" rel="noopener">Soundwill  (878 HK)</a> appeared destined to be the next failure as shares dipped hard ahead of the Scheme vote. And fail it did.</li>
<li>Just like for Goldlion, Soundwill's Offer was clearly light. The counter-argument was that terms were, arguably, as good as it gets. And no competing Offer would emerge. Minorities voiced otherwise.</li>
<li>Hong Kong has been the proverbial graveyard for arb deals of late. However, in a positive sense, minorities in Goldlion and Soundwill simply rejected opportunistic Offers. </li>
</ul>


After Goldlion (533 HK)'s spectacular Scheme fail, Soundwill  (878 HK) appeared destined to be the next failure as shares dipped hard ahead of the Scheme vote. And fail it did.
Just like for Goldlion, Soundwill's Offer was clearly light. The counter-argument was that terms were, arguably, as good as it gets. And no competing Offer would emerge. Minorities voiced otherwise.
Hong Kong has been the proverbial graveyard for arb deals of late. However, in a positive sense, minorities in Goldlion and Soundwill simply rejected opportunistic Offers. 


Soundwill (878 HK): Thoughts On The Latest Scheme Fail

<ul>
<li>The irony is that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CKH (1 HK)</a>'s Panama-port sale was probably prompted, at least in part, by a desire to get out of a situation which was becoming increasingly political. </li>
<li>Instead, it has thrust the company right into the heart of it. And the share price has now given up all of its initial gains. And then some. </li>
<li>After Panama’s Attorney General recently determined CK Hutchison's concessions were unconstitutional, the Comptroller-General has now announced that an audit had found “many breaches” of the concession.</li>
</ul>


The irony is that CKH (1 HK)'s Panama-port sale was probably prompted, at least in part, by a desire to get out of a situation which was becoming increasingly political. 
Instead, it has thrust the company right into the heart of it. And the share price has now given up all of its initial gains. And then some. 
After Panama’s Attorney General recently determined CK Hutchison's concessions were unconstitutional, the Comptroller-General has now announced that an audit had found “many breaches” of the concession.


HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a>'s share price should pick up as its portfolio of non-US infrastructure assets will become increasingly attractive.</li>
<li>Its assets will benefit from re-pricing as global inflation rates trend higher. Meanwhile, it will gain from the translation of foreign earnings back to HK$.</li>
<li>The secured 5.7% and 6.2% dividend yield for FY25F and FY26F makes CKI appealing, especially given a track record of 28 consecutive years of dividend hike.</li>
</ul>



CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)'s share price should pick up as its portfolio of non-US infrastructure assets will become increasingly attractive.
Its assets will benefit from re-pricing as global inflation rates trend higher. Meanwhile, it will gain from the translation of foreign earnings back to HK$.
The secured 5.7% and 6.2% dividend yield for FY25F and FY26F makes CKI appealing, especially given a track record of 28 consecutive years of dividend hike.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>On 13 March, Ta Kung Pao, a Hong Kong newspaper owned by the Chinese government and Communist Party, denounced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>’s planned port transaction.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.tkww.hk/a/202503/14/AP67d37c94e4b0fbda9a1257d5.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">opinion piece</a> is mainly political rhetoric, as even if China managed to block the deal, it would still not address the underlying concerns expressed in the article. </li>
<li>In the near term, the shares will likely be under pressure from a nationalistic backlash. Nevertheless, deal or no deal, the valuation remains undemanding. </li>
</ul>


On 13 March, Ta Kung Pao, a Hong Kong newspaper owned by the Chinese government and Communist Party, denounced CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)’s planned port transaction.
The opinion piece is mainly political rhetoric, as even if China managed to block the deal, it would still not address the underlying concerns expressed in the article. 
In the near term, the shares will likely be under pressure from a nationalistic backlash. Nevertheless, deal or no deal, the valuation remains undemanding. 


CK Hutchison (1 HK): Political Turbulence

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Over a dozen <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> companies (31% of index weight) report next week, along with significant portions of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> (38%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> (32%) components.</li>
<li>The four index heavy-weights <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan</a> all report next week.</li>
<li>Weekly options expiring March 21 provide targeted instruments for traders looking to capitalize on earnings-related price movements.</li>
</ul>


Over a dozen Hang Seng Index companies (31% of index weight) report next week, along with significant portions of HSCEI (38%) and Hang Seng TECH Index (32%) components.
The four index heavy-weights Xiaomi Corp, Tencent, China Mobile, and Meituan all report next week.
Weekly options expiring March 21 provide targeted instruments for traders looking to capitalize on earnings-related price movements.


Dividends, Volatility, and Profits: HSI and HSCEI Heavyweights Reveal Results, 17 - 21 March

Hong Kong

CK Infrastructure is a global infrastructure company with diversified investments in energy, transportation, water, and waste management sectors. It also produces construction materials like cement and asphalt. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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CK Infrastructure (1038 HK)

Soundwill (878 HK): Thoughts On The Latest Scheme Fail

The outcome for Soundwill was not a big surprise. However, expect current and future illiquid small-cap arbs to trade wide(r) if there is a whiff...

David Blennerhassett

CK Hutch (1 HK): Back To Square One

The irony is that CK Hutch's Panama-port sale was probably prompted, at least in part, by a desire to get out of a situation which was becoming...

David Blennerhassett

CKI (1038 HK): It Is the Best Time

CKI is poised to perform with non-US assets becoming more attractive, benefitting from global inflation and foreign earnings translation, offering...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CK Hutchison (1 HK): Political Turbulence

The Ta Kung Pao piece is mainly political rhetoric, as even if China managed to block the deal, it would still not address the underlying concerns...

Arun George

Dividends, Volatility, and Profits: HSI and HSCEI Heavyweights Reveal Results, 17 - 21 March

Key Hang Seng Index companies reporting next week, including heavyweights Xiaomi, Tencent, China Mobile, and Meituan, offer trading opportunities.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Soundwill (878 HK): Thoughts On The Latest Scheme Fail

The outcome for Soundwill was not a big surprise. However, expect current and future illiquid small-cap arbs to trade wide(r) if there is a whiff...

David Blennerhassett

CK Hutch (1 HK): Back To Square One

The irony is that CK Hutch's Panama-port sale was probably prompted, at least in part, by a desire to get out of a situation which was becoming...

David Blennerhassett

CKI (1038 HK): It Is the Best Time

​CKI is poised to perform with non-US assets becoming more attractive, benefitting from global inflation and foreign earnings translation, offering...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CK Hutchison (1 HK): Political Turbulence

The Ta Kung Pao piece is mainly political rhetoric, as even if China managed to block the deal, it would still not address the underlying concerns...

Arun George

Dividends, Volatility, and Profits: HSI and HSCEI Heavyweights Reveal Results, 17 - 21 March

​Key Hang Seng Index companies reporting next week, including heavyweights Xiaomi, Tencent, China Mobile, and Meituan, offer trading opportunities.

Gaudenz Schneider

CKI is poised to perform with non-US assets becoming more attractive, benefitting from global inflation and foreign earnings translation, offering...

Key Hang Seng Index companies reporting next week, including heavyweights Xiaomi, Tencent, China Mobile, and Meituan, offer trading opportunities.