Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Morita Holdings is Japan’s dominant fire-truck manufacturer, holding roughly 57-60% of the domestic market and close to 90% of the aerial ladder-truck segment</li><li>Founded in 1907 by Shōsaku Morita as a fire-pump maker and built into a nationwide-service, certification-protected niche monopoly against a much smaller #2 competitor, Nikki Co.</li><li>The moat is genuine and multi-decade — safety certification, a product-liability track record, and nationwide parts/service infrastructure a new entrant couldn’t replicate in thirty years.</li></ul>

Morita Holdings is Japan’s dominant fire-truck manufacturer, holding roughly 57-60% of the domestic market and close to 90% of the aerial ladder-truck segmentFounded in 1907 by Shōsaku Morita as a fire-pump maker and built into a nationwide-service, certification-protected niche monopoly against a much smaller #2 competitor, Nikki Co.The moat is genuine and multi-decade — safety certification, a product-liability track record, and nationwide parts/service infrastructure a new entrant couldn’t replicate in thirty years.

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Apr 3rd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD21,015m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, West Japan Railway Company, SoftBank, Kyushu Railway Company, Edion, Sanrio, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kintetsu.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Apr 3rd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD21,015m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, West Japan Railway Company, SoftBank, Kyushu Railway Company, Edion, Sanrio, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kintetsu.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Apr 3rd): Kioxia, Advantest, Furukawa Electric

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Mar 6th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD25,673m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Kioxia, IHI, Fujikura, Toyota Motor, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing, Nintendo, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, SoftBank.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Mar 6th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD25,673m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Kioxia, IHI, Fujikura, Toyota Motor, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing, Nintendo, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, SoftBank.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Mar 6th): Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Kioxia, IHI, Fujikura, Toyota Motor

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Feb 27th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD24,962m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Rakuten Bank, Lasertec, Disco, Kandenko, Toho, SoftBank, Advantest, Sanrio, Tokyo Electron, Create Restaurants.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Feb 27th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD24,962m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Rakuten Bank, Lasertec, Disco, Kandenko, Toho, SoftBank, Advantest, Sanrio, Tokyo Electron, Create Restaurants.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Feb 27th): Rakuten Bank, Lasertec, Disco, Kandenko, Toho, SoftBank

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

On Thursday March 15th, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12642" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12642:1">Ck San Etsu Co Ltd (5757 JP)</a> <a href="https://www.release.tdnet.info/inbs/140120180313489086.pdf" target="_blank">announced</a> (J-only) that the TSE had approved its applicattion to move from the Second Section to the First Section of the TSE as of the 22nd of March 2018.At the same time, the company announced a very sharp hike in the dividend, from ¥15 twice a year to ¥35 in the second half this year PLUS a ¥10 "memorial dividend" to commemorate the company's move to the TSE1.  That will bring the current year dividend up to a bit above 1% of the share…

On Thursday March 15th, Ck San Etsu Co Ltd (5757 JP) announced (J-only) that the TSE had approved its applicattion to move from the Second Section to the First Section of the TSE as of the 22nd of March 2018.At the same time, the company announced a very sharp hike in the dividend, from ¥15 twice a year to ¥35 in the second half this year PLUS a ¥10 "memorial dividend" to commemorate the company's move to the TSE1.  That will bring the current year dividend up to a bit above 1% of the share…

Japan

CK San-Etsu Co Ltd produces rolled copper.  The Company's main products include free-cut brass bars used in gas appliances, faucets, and automobile parts.

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CK San-Etsu (5757 JP)

Monday Delight: 07/09/2026

Morita Holdings is Japan’s dominant fire-truck manufacturer, holding roughly 57-60% of the domestic market and close to 90% of the aerial...

Contrarian Cashflows

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Apr 3rd): Kioxia, Advantest, Furukawa Electric

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Furukawa Electric (5801...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Mar 6th): Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Kioxia, IHI, Fujikura, Toyota Motor

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (8306 JP), Kioxia (285A JP), IHI (7013...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Feb 27th): Rakuten Bank, Lasertec, Disco, Kandenko, Toho, SoftBank

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Rakuten Bank, Lasertec, Disco, Kandenko, Toho, SoftBank,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CK San Etsu (5757 JP) TOPIX Inclusion

On Thursday March 15th, Ck San Etsu Co Ltd (5757 JP) announced (J-only) that the TSE had approved its applicattion to move from the Second Section...

Travis Lundy

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