Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cloud-village-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33412:1" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (9899 HK)</a>'s stock price has doubled over the last quarter and the increased market cap should lead to global index inclusion in August. </li>
<li>Short interest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cloud-village-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33412:1" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (9899 HK)</a> is at an all-time high and has increased in lockstep with the stock price.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cloud-village-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33412:1" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (9899 HK)</a> has outperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36601:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK)</a> and now trades at much higher valuations. A pair trade looks attractive here.</li>
</ul>



Cloud Village (9899 HK)'s stock price has doubled over the last quarter and the increased market cap should lead to global index inclusion in August. 
Short interest in Cloud Village (9899 HK) is at an all-time high and has increased in lockstep with the stock price.

Cloud Village (9899 HK) has outperformed Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) and now trades at much higher valuations. A pair trade looks attractive here.


Netease Cloud Music (9899 HK): Stock Up; Short Interest Up; Global Index Inclusion

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>2025 has seen a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024.</li>
<li>Most of the 2025 placements have been primary raising and have come from a handful of sectors/backdrops.</li>
<li>In this note, we try to identify the possible primary placements that could take place over the rest of the year.</li>
</ul>


2025 has seen a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024.
Most of the 2025 placements have been primary raising and have come from a handful of sectors/backdrops.
In this note, we try to identify the possible primary placements that could take place over the rest of the year.


Hong Kong 2025 Placements - Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Total revenue grew by 21% YoY and offline revenue grew by 50% YoY in 3Q25.</li>
<li>Both ARPPU and the user base increased YoY in 3Q25.</li>
<li>The margin had improved year over year for 13 quarters.</li>
</ul>


Total revenue grew by 21% YoY and offline revenue grew by 50% YoY in 3Q25.
Both ARPPU and the user base increased YoY in 3Q25.
The margin had improved year over year for 13 quarters.


Tencent Music (TME): 3Q25, Offline Rev Up by 50%, Margin Improved for 13 Quarters

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong secular bull market continues to broaden and has broken all long term resistance levels. The HSCEI has beaten Asian and global peers over the last 18 months.</li>
<li>Growth and Momentum factors have been the best performers in the HSCI year to date. The Materials and Healthcare sectors continue to show increasing strength in their relative returns.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cloud-village-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33412:1" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (9899 HK)</a> had a breakout pattern from a continuation triangle after reporting a deal to stream Korean drama series to Chinese market. The company's profits grew in 1H25.
</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong secular bull market continues to broaden and has broken all long term resistance levels. The HSCEI has beaten Asian and global peers over the last 18 months.
Growth and Momentum factors have been the best performers in the HSCI year to date. The Materials and Healthcare sectors continue to show increasing strength in their relative returns.

Cloud Village (9899 HK) had a breakout pattern from a continuation triangle after reporting a deal to stream Korean drama series to Chinese market. The company's profits grew in 1H25.



Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns - HONG KONG (September 10)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.</li>
<li>Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.</li>
<li>As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
</ul>


We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).


Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

China

CLOUD VILLAGE INC operates as a music company. The Company develops a leading online music paltform which provides community centric online music services, social entertainment services, and other services. Cloud Village provides its services throughout China.

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Cloud Village (9899 HK)

Netease Cloud Music (9899 HK): Stock Up; Short Interest Up; Global Index Inclusion

Netease Cloud Music could be added to a global index in August. The stock price is up a lot, and short interest has trended higher as well. Netease...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong 2025 Placements - Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements

1H25 saw a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024. In this...

Sumeet Singh

Tencent Music (TME): 3Q25, Offline Rev Up by 50%, Margin Improved for 13 Quarters

Total revenue grew by 21% YoY and offline revenue grew by 50% YoY in 3Q25. Both ARPPU and the user base increased YoY in 3Q25. The margin had...

Ming Lu

Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns - HONG KONG (September 10)

The Hong Kong secular bull market continues to broaden and has broken all long term resistance levels. The HSCEI has beaten Asian and global peers...

David Mudd

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

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