Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published in the past two weeks on Smartkarma</li>
<li>In this cut, we review the rally in Chinese healthcare in 2025, track some updates in financial markets infrastructure companies, and see how Korean equities have done since end-May</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published in the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we review the rally in Chinese healthcare in 2025, track some updates in financial markets infrastructure companies, and see how Korean equities have done since end-May
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next


Curator's Cut: China Healthcare Rally, Financial Market Infra Moves & Korea’s Equity Upswing

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Bank of Baroda are buys due to deep value with positive returns catalysts; the sell on premium-valued Nubank is due to fundamental return headwinds emerging</li>
<li>In the Japanese banks we identify Mizuho and Resona as key beneficiaries of higher benchmark rates going forward, alongside very attractive valuations and supported by strategic share portfolios</li>
<li>CME Group is our 2025 pick in global exchanges, as a flow monster with a very strong competitive position; PagSeguro is the deep value, contrarian pick in payments</li>
</ul>


GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Bank of Baroda are buys due to deep value with positive returns catalysts; the sell on premium-valued Nubank is due to fundamental return headwinds emerging
In the Japanese banks we identify Mizuho and Resona as key beneficiaries of higher benchmark rates going forward, alongside very attractive valuations and supported by strategic share portfolios
CME Group is our 2025 pick in global exchanges, as a flow monster with a very strong competitive position; PagSeguro is the deep value, contrarian pick in payments


EM and DM Financials - 2025 High Conviction Ideas

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.</li>
<li>Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.</li>
<li>As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.
Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.
As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.


SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our core pick is flow monster CME Group for its dominant franchise through its trading and post-trading (including clearing) operations in interest rates, equity indices, foreign exchange and commodity derivatives</li>
<li>We also like Deutsche Borse as the European flow monster and for its attractive valuations and gearing into greater European securities activity</li>
<li>We downgrade Japan Exchange to a neutral from buy for its fair valuations, as we see more compelling opportunities with CME group and Deutsche Borse; CBOE is one to watch</li>
</ul>


Our core pick is flow monster CME Group for its dominant franchise through its trading and post-trading (including clearing) operations in interest rates, equity indices, foreign exchange and commodity derivatives
We also like Deutsche Borse as the European flow monster and for its attractive valuations and gearing into greater European securities activity
We downgrade Japan Exchange to a neutral from buy for its fair valuations, as we see more compelling opportunities with CME group and Deutsche Borse; CBOE is one to watch


Developed Market Exchanges – Integrated Flow Monsters and Big Data Monetisers

<ul>
<li>We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback</li>
<li>Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).</li>
<li>The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback
Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).
The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.


Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

United States

CME Group Inc. operates a derivatives exchange that trades futures contracts and options on futures, interest rates, stock indexes, foreign exchange and commodities.  The Exchange brings together buyers and sellers of derivatives products on its trading floors, electronic trading platform, and through privately negotiated transactions that it clears.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

CME Group (CME US)

Curator's Cut: China Healthcare Rally, Financial Market Infra Moves & Korea’s Equity Upswing

This Curator's Cut issue shows what's contributed to the Chinese healthcare sector's performance YTD, looks at some exchanges and depositories,...

Pranav Rao

EM and DM Financials - 2025 High Conviction Ideas

Buy GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Baroda, sell Nubank due to return headwinds. Japanese banks Mizuho and Resona benefit from higher benchmark...

Victor Galliano

SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

$SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track if Below 5783. Still Neutral, prefer to sell...

Vermilion Research

Developed Market Exchanges – Integrated Flow Monsters and Big Data Monetisers

CME Group is our top pick for its dominant market position in key US derivatives, Deutsche Borse is also on the buy list. We downgrade Japan...

Victor Galliano

Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Our confidence in our outlook is growing: as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, most signs point to this being a normal...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Curator's Cut: China Healthcare Rally, Financial Market Infra Moves & Korea’s Equity Upswing

This ​Curator's Cut issue shows what's contributed to the Chinese healthcare sector's performance YTD, looks at some exchanges and depositories,...

Pranav Rao

EM and DM Financials - 2025 High Conviction Ideas

​Buy GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Baroda, sell Nubank due to return headwinds. Japanese banks Mizuho and Resona benefit from higher benchmark...

Victor Galliano

SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

$SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track if Below 5783. Still Neutral, prefer to sell...

Vermilion Research

Developed Market Exchanges – Integrated Flow Monsters and Big Data Monetisers

​CME Group is our top pick for its dominant market position in key US derivatives, Deutsche Borse is also on the buy list. We downgrade Japan...

Victor Galliano

Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Our confidence in our outlook is growing: as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, most signs point to this being a normal...

Vermilion Research

This Curator's Cut issue shows what's contributed to the Chinese healthcare sector's performance YTD, looks at some exchanges and depositories,...

Buy GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Baroda, sell Nubank due to return headwinds. Japanese banks Mizuho and Resona benefit from higher benchmark...

CME Group is our top pick for its dominant market position in key US derivatives, Deutsche Borse is also on the buy list. We downgrade Japan...