HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-kelun-biotech-biopharm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40071:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Ind. (669 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chervon-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35309:1" rel="noopener">Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)</a> have a very high reliance on the US market.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vtech-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18812:1" rel="noopener">Vtech Hldgs (303 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcl-multimedia-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15654:1" rel="noopener">Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK)</a> ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. </li>
<li>The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prada-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:889:1" rel="noopener">Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK), Techtronic Ind. (669 HK), Vesync (2148 HK), Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK), and WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) have a very high reliance on the US market.

Vtech Hldgs (303 HK), Samsonite (1910 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK) ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. 
The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like Orient Overseas International (316 HK) and Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK).


China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We screen the Mainland Securities ahead of the HSCEI review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close.</li>
<li>One ADD and one DELETE are screened as high-conviction calls this cycle.</li>
<li>We also include one mid-conviction ADD and one low-conviction DELETE.</li>
</ul>


We screen the Mainland Securities ahead of the HSCEI review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close.
One ADD and one DELETE are screened as high-conviction calls this cycle.
We also include one mid-conviction ADD and one low-conviction DELETE.


Zijin Gold International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We screen for HSI ADD candidates ahead of the review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close.</li>
<li>Four stocks are screened as mid-conviction ADD candidates this cycle.</li>
<li>Three of the four are in the most underweight industry group, and the fourth is in Healthcare.</li>
</ul>


We screen for HSI ADD candidates ahead of the review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close.
Four stocks are screened as mid-conviction ADD candidates this cycle.
Three of the four are in the most underweight industry group, and the fourth is in Healthcare.


Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Brazil gold acquisition improves diversification and earnings stability; deal appears cash-funded and value-accretive at current gold prices.</li>
<li>Asset quality improves on a risk-adjusted basis, though Brazilian gold mines are higher-cost and shorter-life than tier-1 peers.</li>
<li>Valuation already reflects elevated copper and gold prices; upside now depends on commodity price persistence, not rerating.</li>
</ul>


Brazil gold acquisition improves diversification and earnings stability; deal appears cash-funded and value-accretive at current gold prices.
Asset quality improves on a risk-adjusted basis, though Brazilian gold mines are higher-cost and shorter-life than tier-1 peers.
Valuation already reflects elevated copper and gold prices; upside now depends on commodity price persistence, not rerating.


CMOC Group (603993 CH): Brazil Gold Deal Lifts Diversification; Valuation Tied to Metals Regime

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cmoc-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28168:1" rel="noopener">CMOC (603993 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sungrow-power-supply-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4255:1" rel="noopener">Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-jiangsu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27216:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Jiangsu (600919 CH)</a> in the ETFs at the close on 19 December.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.5 days of ADV in the constituent changes.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes by a big margin over the last 6 months. After a period of underperformance in November, the adds have started moving higher again.</li>
</ul>



CMOC (603993 CH) and Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH) will replace S.F. Holding (002352 CH) and Bank of Jiangsu (600919 CH) in the ETFs at the close on 19 December.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.5 days of ADV in the constituent changes.
The adds have outperformed the deletes by a big margin over the last 6 months. After a period of underperformance in November, the adds have started moving higher again.


China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Sets of Changes

China

CMOC Group Limited is a Chinese mining company engaged in the mining, beneficiation, smelting, and refining of base and rare metals, as well as mineral trading. It is a world-leading producer of copper, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, and niobium, and a leading producer of phosphate fertilizer. The company is headquartered in Luoyang, Henan, People's Republic of China, and was founded in 1969.

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CMOC (3993 HK)

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCEI Dec 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast

We expect Shenzhou to be deleted below rank 60 and Hua Hong Grace to fill its seat, while a mid-conviction WuXi Bio ADD would also see ZTO deleted.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI Dec 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast

We expect 4 mid-conviction ADDs with no DELETE, and Energy, Materials, Industrials, Conglomerates remains the most underweight industry group in...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CMOC Group (603993 CH): Brazil Gold Deal Lifts Diversification; Valuation Tied to Metals Regime

Acquisition of Brazilian gold mines boosts diversification and earnings stability, but valuation already accounts for high commodity prices....

Rahul Jain

China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Sets of Changes

CMOC and Sungrow Power will replace SF Holdings and Bank of Jiangsu in the A50 ETFs in December. Both sets of changes were expected and passive...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

​Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCEI Dec 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast

We expect Shenzhou to be deleted below rank 60 and Hua Hong Grace to fill its seat, while a mid-conviction WuXi Bio ADD would also see ZTO deleted.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI Dec 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast

We expect 4 mid-conviction ADDs with no DELETE, and Energy, Materials, Industrials, Conglomerates remains the most underweight industry group in...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CMOC Group (603993 CH): Brazil Gold Deal Lifts Diversification; Valuation Tied to Metals Regime

​Acquisition of Brazilian gold mines boosts diversification and earnings stability, but valuation already accounts for high commodity prices....

Rahul Jain

China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Sets of Changes

CMOC and Sungrow Power will replace SF Holdings and Bank of Jiangsu in the A50 ETFs in December. Both sets of changes were expected and passive...

Brian Freitas

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Acquisition of Brazilian gold mines boosts diversification and earnings stability, but valuation already accounts for high commodity prices....