HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

GigaDevice Semiconductor  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gigadevice-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46238:1" rel="noopener">GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)</a>'s grey market price of HK$224.8 is 38.8% higher than the IPO price. This means a PER of 53.5x for FY26, simply too stretched for us. </li>
<li>The grey market price represents a 68-77% FY26 PER premium to the most-expensive peers, namely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microchip-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8788:1" rel="noopener">Microchip Technology (MCHP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-instruments-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18804:1" rel="noopener">Texas Instruments (TXN US)</a>. </li>
<li>Our fair value range is HK$204-238, based on the HA discount for 2025 IPOs and the current overall HA discount, implying limited upside potential.</li>
</ul>



GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)'s grey market price of HK$224.8 is 38.8% higher than the IPO price. This means a PER of 53.5x for FY26, simply too stretched for us. 
The grey market price represents a 68-77% FY26 PER premium to the most-expensive peers, namely Microchip Technology (MCHP US) and Texas Instruments (TXN US). 
Our fair value range is HK$204-238, based on the HA discount for 2025 IPOs and the current overall HA discount, implying limited upside potential.


GigaDevice (3986 HK): Its Just Too Demanding

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 9th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Xiaomi, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, Tencent, China Life, Alibaba, Kuaishou, Zijin Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 9th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Xiaomi, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, Tencent, China Life, Alibaba, Kuaishou, Zijin Mining.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jan 9th): Xiaomi, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, Tencent, China Life

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 2nd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for China Mobile, CMB, Tencent, ABC, HKEx, SMIC, Innovent Biologics, Ck Infrastructure.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 2nd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for China Mobile, CMB, Tencent, ABC, HKEx, SMIC, Innovent Biologics, Ck Infrastructure.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jan 2nd): China Mobile, CMB, Tencent, ABC, HKEx, SMIC, Innovent Biologics

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nine months after the offer was announced, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-natural-gas-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16456:1" rel="noopener">ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH)</a> has satisfied the regulatory precondition related to its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> offer. </li>
<li>The remaining precondition is approval from CSRC and HKEx, which are low-risk. The long stop date is 13 March 2026, which may have to be extended.</li>
<li>The appraised offer HK$80.00 value is the key debating point. Based on several methodologies, I estimate a realistic offer value of HK$78.53 (range of HK$71.85 to HK$89.72).</li>
</ul>


Nine months after the offer was announced, ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) has satisfied the regulatory precondition related to its ENN Energy (2688 HK) offer. 
The remaining precondition is approval from CSRC and HKEx, which are low-risk. The long stop date is 13 March 2026, which may have to be extended.
The appraised offer HK$80.00 value is the key debating point. Based on several methodologies, I estimate a realistic offer value of HK$78.53 (range of HK$71.85 to HK$89.72).


ENN Energy (2688 HK): Regulatory Precondition Satisfied

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Equity Capital Markets

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, most of the listings over the past week ended up doing well, irrespective of overall demand.</li>
<li>On the placements front, there was a lockup release for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK)</a>, along with a number of other placements.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, most of the listings over the past week ended up doing well, irrespective of overall demand.
On the placements front, there was a lockup release for Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK), along with a number of other placements.


ECM Weekly (24 November 2025) - CATL, Hengrui, Hongqiao, WT Micro, SBI Shinsei, NS Group, Ultragreen

China

CNGR Advanced Material is a globally renowned enterprise specializing in the research, development, production, and sales of advanced energy materials, primarily lithium battery cathode material precursors. Its key products include ternary precursors, cobalt tetroxide, and various nickel-based, cobalt-based, phosphorus-based, and sodium-based materials for new energy vehicles, energy storage, and consumer electronics. The company is headquartered in Tongren, Guizhou, China, and was founded in 2014.

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CNGR Advanced Material (2579 HK)

GigaDevice (3986 HK): Its Just Too Demanding

GigaDevice's grey market price is 38.8% higher than IPO, leading to a FY26 PER of 53.5x, with limited upside potential compared to peers, even...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jan 9th): Xiaomi, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, Tencent, China Life

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Xiaomi, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, Tencent, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jan 2nd): China Mobile, CMB, Tencent, ABC, HKEx, SMIC, Innovent Biologics

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for China Mobile, CMB, Tencent, ABC, HKEx, SMIC, Innovent...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Regulatory Precondition Satisfied

Nine months in, the regulatory precondition was finally satisfied. Based on several methodologies, I estimate a realistic offer value of HK$78.53...

Arun George

ECM Weekly (24 November 2025) - CATL, Hengrui, Hongqiao, WT Micro, SBI Shinsei, NS Group, Ultragreen

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

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GigaDevice (3986 HK): Its Just Too Demanding

​GigaDevice's grey market price is 38.8% higher than IPO, leading to a FY26 PER of 53.5x, with limited upside potential compared to peers, even...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jan 9th): Xiaomi, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, Tencent, China Life

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Xiaomi, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, Tencent, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jan 2nd): China Mobile, CMB, Tencent, ABC, HKEx, SMIC, Innovent Biologics

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for China Mobile, CMB, Tencent, ABC, HKEx, SMIC, Innovent...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Regulatory Precondition Satisfied

Nine months in, the regulatory precondition was finally satisfied. Based on several methodologies, I estimate a realistic offer value of HK$78.53...

Arun George

ECM Weekly (24 November 2025) - CATL, Hengrui, Hongqiao, WT Micro, SBI Shinsei, NS Group, Ultragreen

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

GigaDevice's grey market price is 38.8% higher than IPO, leading to a FY26 PER of 53.5x, with limited upside potential compared to peers, even...