Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Higher ag prices should leave farmers with more cash and a higher propensity to spend. Companies making Tech heavy farm machinery and modified seeds with positive traits should benefit. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deere-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12207:1" rel="noopener">Deere &amp; Co (DE US)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnh-global-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28200:1" rel="noopener">CNH Global NV (CNH US)</a> dominate innovations in machinery followed by Agco Corp (AGCO US). Dawn Equipment is a small but interesting private player.</li>
<li>In seeds and tissue genetic engineering Corteva Inc (CTVA US) is best positioned and has been out innovating its only real competitor Bayer AG (BAYN GY) significantly in recent years.</li>
</ul>


Higher ag prices should leave farmers with more cash and a higher propensity to spend. Companies making Tech heavy farm machinery and modified seeds with positive traits should benefit. 

Deere &amp; Co (DE US) &amp; CNH Global NV (CNH US) dominate innovations in machinery followed by Agco Corp (AGCO US). Dawn Equipment is a small but interesting private player.
In seeds and tissue genetic engineering Corteva Inc (CTVA US) is best positioned and has been out innovating its only real competitor Bayer AG (BAYN GY) significantly in recent years.


Rising Agri Prices Might Benefit Machinery and Seed Ecosystem. We Highlight the Dominant Innovators

In last week’s Compass we posited that the bulls were back in control as the bullish gap from Sept. 28 was left unfilled despite the president and first lady getting COVID-19. With breadth continuing to improve and several cyclical areas of the market breaking out to new highs, our outlook remains bullish and we believe a “buy the dip” mentality is warranted.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials &amp; Manufacturing: Metals, Steel Integrated, U.S., Specialty Chemicals, Petro/Basic/Commodity, Cement/Aggregates, and Agricultural Equipment.

In last week’s Compass we posited that the bulls were back in control as the bullish gap from Sept. 28 was left unfilled despite the president and first lady getting COVID-19. With breadth continuing to improve and several cyclical areas of the market breaking out to new highs, our outlook remains bullish and we believe a “buy the dip” mentality is warranted.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials &amp; Manufacturing: Metals, Steel Integrated, U.S., Specialty Chemicals, Petro/Basic/Commodity, Cement/Aggregates, and Agricultural Equipment.

U. S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact; Buy Dips

United Kingdom

CNH Global N.V. provides capital equipment. The Company manufactures, designs, and distributes agricultural, construction, trucks, commercial vehicles, buses, and marine equipment. CNH Global serves customers globally.

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CNH Global NV (CNH US)

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Rising Agri Prices Might Benefit Machinery and Seed Ecosystem. We Highlight the Dominant Innovators

AgTech innovations will be needed to alleviate the pressures in food system. We identify the leaders in Farm Machinery and Seed Genetics Technologies

Pyari Menon

U. S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact; Buy Dips

With breadth continuing to improve and several cyclicals breaking out to new highs, our outlook remains bullish and we believe a “buy the dip”...

Vermilion Research

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