Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Our analysis of quarterly returns of each Asian market and each of the sectors within them shows clear cyclical patterns of performance, driven, we believe, by market/sector rotation by investors.</li>
<li>These cyclical patterns indicate that in the near-term, investors could rotate out of onshore China, India, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand and rotate into Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia and Philippines.</li>
<li>Korean Technology, Financials and Industrials, Hong Kong Energy, Communications and Technology Services, and Malaysian and Philippines Industrial Services are the secularly outperforming sectors among these likely beneficiary sectors.  </li>
</ul>


Our analysis of quarterly returns of each Asian market and each of the sectors within them shows clear cyclical patterns of performance, driven, we believe, by market/sector rotation by investors.
These cyclical patterns indicate that in the near-term, investors could rotate out of onshore China, India, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand and rotate into Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia and Philippines.
Korean Technology, Financials and Industrials, Hong Kong Energy, Communications and Technology Services, and Malaysian and Philippines Industrial Services are the secularly outperforming sectors among these likely beneficiary sectors.  


Asian Equities: Cyclical Patterns and Sector/Market Rotations Tell Us Where to Look Next

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Although lower interest rates will benefit the technology sector more, many investors will still opt for high-yield stocks to protect their income stream.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Prop (101 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao (1378 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengan-international-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29:1" rel="noopener">Hengan Intl Group (1044 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/henderson-land-development-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:376:1" rel="noopener">Henderson Land (12 HK)</a> are the top 5 high-yield HSI constituents.</li>
<li>Mainland China banks no longer made the list, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a> remain attractive at 5.7% and 5.6%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


Although lower interest rates will benefit the technology sector more, many investors will still opt for high-yield stocks to protect their income stream.

CNOOC Ltd (883 HK), Hang Lung Prop (101 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK), Hengan Intl Group (1044 HK), and Henderson Land (12 HK) are the top 5 high-yield HSI constituents.
Mainland China banks no longer made the list, but ICBC (H) (1398 HK) and Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) remain attractive at 5.7% and 5.6%, respectively.


HK Strategy: Time to Revisit the Yield Story

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 11th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Tencent, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Ntes, CCB, Minimax, Zj Innolight, China Mobile, CNOOC.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 11th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Tencent, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Ntes, CCB, Minimax, Zj Innolight, China Mobile, CNOOC.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Ntes, CCB, Minimax, Zj Innolight, CNOOC

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>Oil’s positive reaction to bearish news was a signal to go long.</li>
<li>Regardless of the outcome of the current fighting between Israel and Iran, oil has likely bottomed.</li>
<li>We add oil and related equities to the inflation basket</li>
</ul>


Oil’s positive reaction to bearish news was a signal to go long.
Regardless of the outcome of the current fighting between Israel and Iran, oil has likely bottomed.
We add oil and related equities to the inflation basket


Tactical Trading -Oil Joins the Commodity Rally

China

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

CNOOC Ltd (ADR) (CEO US)

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Asian Equities: Cyclical Patterns and Sector/Market Rotations Tell Us Where to Look Next

Asian market returns evince cyclical patterns driven by investor rotation. Near-term shifts likely from onshore CN, India, SG, Indonesia to HK,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HK Strategy: Time to Revisit the Yield Story

High-yield stocks like CNOOC, Hang Lung Prop and Henderson can protect income stream despite lower interest rates favouring the tech sector. ICBC...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Ntes, CCB, Minimax, Zj Innolight, CNOOC

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 11th and highlight short interest changes in Tencent (700 HK), Sun Hung...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tactical Trading -Oil Joins the Commodity Rally

Oil joins the commodity rally and has likely bottommed regardless of the outcome in the current Israel/Iran fighting. OIl related equities are now...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Asian Equities: Cyclical Patterns and Sector/Market Rotations Tell Us Where to Look Next

​Asian market returns evince cyclical patterns driven by investor rotation. Near-term shifts likely from onshore CN, India, SG, Indonesia to HK,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HK Strategy: Time to Revisit the Yield Story

​High-yield stocks like CNOOC, Hang Lung Prop and Henderson can protect income stream despite lower interest rates favouring the tech sector. ICBC...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Ntes, CCB, Minimax, Zj Innolight, CNOOC

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 11th and highlight short interest changes in Tencent (700 HK), Sun Hung...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tactical Trading -Oil Joins the Commodity Rally

Oil joins the commodity rally and has likely bottommed regardless of the outcome in the current Israel/Iran fighting. OIl related equities are now...

Rikki Malik

Asian market returns evince cyclical patterns driven by investor rotation. Near-term shifts likely from onshore CN, India, SG, Indonesia to HK,...

High-yield stocks like CNOOC, Hang Lung Prop and Henderson can protect income stream despite lower interest rates favouring the tech sector. ICBC...