Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

China Construction Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong earnings season enters its final week with at least 17 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> companies reporting their 2024 results and announcing dividends.</li>
<li>The proportion of companies reporting in the coming week and the week after is significant at an index level, with notable weightings in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HS TECH </a>indices.</li>
<li>Opportunities to profit from price movement around earnings are manifold and include event-focused trading, statistical arbitrage, hedging, and capitalizing on changes in dividends and implied volatility.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong earnings season enters its final week with at least 17 Hang Seng Index companies reporting their 2024 results and announcing dividends.
The proportion of companies reporting in the coming week and the week after is significant at an index level, with notable weightings in the HSI, HSCEI, and HS TECH indices.
Opportunities to profit from price movement around earnings are manifold and include event-focused trading, statistical arbitrage, hedging, and capitalizing on changes in dividends and implied volatility.


Hong Kong Earnings in the Week Commencing March 24

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped somewhat but still high. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$35bn which is still quite strong. Round-tripping volume down 20% week-on-week.</li>
<li>The flows here are still striking. &gt;20% of the top 100 most liquid Southbound eligible stocks saw SOUTHBOUND buy more than 10% of weekly volume. </li>
<li>It feels like there is some common understanding among SOUTHBOUND investors which I do not understand. The numbers are big/growing.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped somewhat but still high. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$35bn which is still quite strong. Round-tripping volume down 20% week-on-week.
The flows here are still striking. &gt;20% of the top 100 most liquid Southbound eligible stocks saw SOUTHBOUND buy more than 10% of weekly volume. 
It feels like there is some common understanding among SOUTHBOUND investors which I do not understand. The numbers are big/growing.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 Mar 2025); Big Volumes, Big Net; Tech, Banks, and Telecoms

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Alibaba, Li Auto, China Mobile and outflows from Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Alibaba, Li Auto, China Mobile and outflows from Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (February): $6bn Inflows into Alibaba

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes cleared HK$800bn for the second week in a row. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$75bn which was perhaps a new record.</li>
<li>Notable again is the HUGE back-and-forth. If HK$865bn traded and SOUTHBOUND "only" bought HK$75bn, HK$395bn was round-tripped for short-term purposes.</li>
<li>Last week I flipped to short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a>. Sentiment may worsen and there's lots to sell later this week. Staying short Alibaba for now. </li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes cleared HK$800bn for the second week in a row. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$75bn which was perhaps a new record.
Notable again is the HUGE back-and-forth. If HK$865bn traded and SOUTHBOUND "only" bought HK$75bn, HK$395bn was round-tripped for short-term purposes.
Last week I flipped to short Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK). Sentiment may worsen and there's lots to sell later this week. Staying short Alibaba for now. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Feb 2025); Big Volumes, HUGE Net Buys on Blue Chips, Tech-Y Names

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In today's uncertain scenario, cash is king. Moreover, the high US treasury yields, which had rendered a dividend yield strategy relatively unattractive, are beginning to decline again.</li>
<li>In addition to considering today's dividend yields, we think it's also imperative to take into account companies' future earnings potential to assess future dividend stability.</li>
<li>Screening companies with at least 6% forward dividend yield and 5% forecast EPS CAGR over next 2 years, we arrive at our basket of 23 dividend yielders, 13 from HK/China.</li>
</ul>


In today's uncertain scenario, cash is king. Moreover, the high US treasury yields, which had rendered a dividend yield strategy relatively unattractive, are beginning to decline again.
In addition to considering today's dividend yields, we think it's also imperative to take into account companies' future earnings potential to assess future dividend stability.
Screening companies with at least 6% forward dividend yield and 5% forecast EPS CAGR over next 2 years, we arrive at our basket of 23 dividend yielders, 13 from HK/China.


Asian Equities: Asia's Robust Dividend Yielders

China

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

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CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)

Hong Kong Earnings in the Week Commencing March 24

The Hong Kong earnings season wraps up with 17 Hang Seng Index companies reporting 2024 results and dividends, offering various profit...

Gaudenz Schneider

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 Mar 2025); Big Volumes, Big Net; Tech, Banks, and Telecoms

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND investors bought another HK$35bn on a net basis while trading high gross volumes again. Tech led, but banks were among the...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Connect Flows (February): $6bn Inflows into Alibaba

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for February and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Li Auto, China Mobile and outflows from Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Feb 2025); Big Volumes, HUGE Net Buys on Blue Chips, Tech-Y Names

HK SOUTHBOUND Connect flows were again huge, both short-term trading and actual net buying. Last week flipped to short Alibaba. This week stays...

Travis Lundy

Asian Equities: Asia's Robust Dividend Yielders

In uncertain times, firms distributing cash as dividends are naturally investors' darlings. Screening large caps on min 6% div yield and future...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hong Kong Earnings in the Week Commencing March 24

​The Hong Kong earnings season wraps up with 17 Hang Seng Index companies reporting 2024 results and dividends, offering various profit...

Gaudenz Schneider

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 Mar 2025); Big Volumes, Big Net; Tech, Banks, and Telecoms

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND investors bought another HK$35bn on a net basis while trading high gross volumes again. Tech led, but banks were among the...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Connect Flows (February): $6bn Inflows into Alibaba

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for February and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Li Auto, China Mobile and outflows from Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Feb 2025); Big Volumes, HUGE Net Buys on Blue Chips, Tech-Y Names

HK SOUTHBOUND Connect flows were again huge, both short-term trading and actual net buying. Last week flipped to short Alibaba. This week stays...

Travis Lundy

Asian Equities: Asia's Robust Dividend Yielders

​In uncertain times, firms distributing cash as dividends are naturally investors' darlings. Screening large caps on min 6% div yield and future...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

The Hong Kong earnings season wraps up with 17 Hang Seng Index companies reporting 2024 results and dividends, offering various profit...

In uncertain times, firms distributing cash as dividends are naturally investors' darlings. Screening large caps on min 6% div yield and future...