Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND a net buyer every day since the end of Chinese New Year. NORTHBOUND a net seller this week for the first week in 6. AH premia slightly down.</li>
<li>Wide spreads continue to narrow and narrow spreads continue to widen.</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND a net buyer every day since the end of Chinese New Year. NORTHBOUND a net seller this week for the first week in 6. AH premia slightly down.
Wide spreads continue to narrow and narrow spreads continue to widen.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Still Wide

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Surging by 19.4% since the trough on 19-Apr, the HSI is now only 3.2% shy away from the psychological resistance of 20,000. We look at some potential profit-taking names. </li>
<li>Heavy-Weights like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> are among the best-performing ones YTD and since the trough. Hence they are more exposed, particularly for Meituan.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> are another two on the list. Their valuations are no longer inexpensive relative to 3-year earnings CAGR.</li>
</ul>


Surging by 19.4% since the trough on 19-Apr, the HSI is now only 3.2% shy away from the psychological resistance of 20,000. We look at some potential profit-taking names. 
Heavy-Weights like Meituan (3690 HK) and Tencent (700 HK) are among the best-performing ones YTD and since the trough. Hence they are more exposed, particularly for Meituan.

Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK) and ENN Energy (2688 HK) are another two on the list. Their valuations are no longer inexpensive relative to 3-year earnings CAGR.


HK Strategy: To Sell or Not to Sell, that Is the Question

<ul>
<li>The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows flat/light and NORTHBOUND flows a significant net buy, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 200+bp.</li>
<li>STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year. 52wk wide discounts were just last week. Wide A/H premia in renewables space look vulnerable.</li>
</ul>


The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND flows flat/light and NORTHBOUND flows a significant net buy, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 200+bp.
STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year. 52wk wide discounts were just last week. Wide A/H premia in renewables space look vulnerable.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Jan 2024):  STAY Long Hs Vs As: A Premia Still Wide, High Div SOEs Moving

<ul>
<li>This is the Brand Spanking New and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see the relationships easily. We used to do it. </li>
<li>We decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. </li>
<li>We hope this new version serves readers even better. Feedback is actively solicited to see if we can improve it from here. </li>
</ul>


This is the Brand Spanking New and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see the relationships easily. We used to do it. 
We decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. 
We hope this new version serves readers even better. Feedback is actively solicited to see if we can improve it from here. 


The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows showing reversion tendencies continues for a second or third week after weeks of momentum. </li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND saw HK$11.2bn of INFLOWS on the week, a chunk of which was net buys on HK-listed ETFs, but Hs underperformed their A counterparts in the H/A pairs once again. </li>
<li>High-Div SOEs again saw action. This time with both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a><em>and</em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> seeing strong net buying as a percentage of volume. Tech was sold.  </li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND flows showing reversion tendencies continues for a second or third week after weeks of momentum. 
SOUTHBOUND saw HK$11.2bn of INFLOWS on the week, a chunk of which was net buys on HK-listed ETFs, but Hs underperformed their A counterparts in the H/A pairs once again. 
High-Div SOEs again saw action. This time with both CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)andChina Mobile (941 HK) seeing strong net buying as a percentage of volume. Tech was sold.  


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8Dec23); CNOOC & China Mobile Both Now To The Buy Side, Tencent Not

China

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

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CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Still Wide

The Quiddity AH Pairs Portfolio tilts long liquid Hs and outperformed them but fell 11bp on the week. CNOOC was the culprit. It was also the big SB...

Travis Lundy

HK Strategy: To Sell or Not to Sell, that Is the Question

HSI surges by 19.4% nearing the 20,000 resistance, potential profit-taking names include Meituan, Tencent, Haidilao, and ENN Energy due to strong...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Jan 2024): STAY Long Hs Vs As: A Premia Still Wide, High Div SOEs Moving

The first week of the year, the A/H premia on average were flat. On liquid names, Hs slightly underperformed. Very mixed across sectors. Premia...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8Dec23); CNOOC & China Mobile Both Now To The Buy Side, Tencent Not

SOUTHBOUND flows were a strong HK$11.2bn net inflow, with both ETFs and high-div SOEs seeing big net inflows. Despite that, Hs underperformed their...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Still Wide

The Quiddity AH Pairs Portfolio tilts long liquid Hs and outperformed them but fell 11bp on the week. CNOOC was the culprit. It was also the big SB...

Travis Lundy

HK Strategy: To Sell or Not to Sell, that Is the Question

​HSI surges by 19.4% nearing the 20,000 resistance, potential profit-taking names include Meituan, Tencent, Haidilao, and ENN Energy due to strong...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Jan 2024): STAY Long Hs Vs As: A Premia Still Wide, High Div SOEs Moving

The first week of the year, the A/H premia on average were flat. On liquid names, Hs slightly underperformed. Very mixed across sectors. Premia...

Travis Lundy

The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)

Quiddity's New & Improved And Really Quite Spiffy H/A Discount Monitor. All the H/A Pairs, universe & sector metrics, with interactive tables and...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8Dec23); CNOOC & China Mobile Both Now To The Buy Side, Tencent Not

SOUTHBOUND flows were a strong HK$11.2bn net inflow, with both ETFs and high-div SOEs seeing big net inflows. Despite that, Hs underperformed their...

Travis Lundy

HSI surges by 19.4% nearing the 20,000 resistance, potential profit-taking names include Meituan, Tencent, Haidilao, and ENN Energy due to strong...