Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>What a crazy day (week), starting August off with a somewhat disastrous NFP report.</li><li>Private sector jobs are trending down, government payrolls are trending down, while manufacturing and goods-producing jobs actually improved in July despite the recessionary ISM manufacturing report.</li><li>This is a clue that the manufacturing sector is rebounding, as we have been alluding to, which is something that will likely become relevant for markets in the coming months.</li></ul>

What a crazy day (week), starting August off with a somewhat disastrous NFP report.Private sector jobs are trending down, government payrolls are trending down, while manufacturing and goods-producing jobs actually improved in July despite the recessionary ISM manufacturing report.This is a clue that the manufacturing sector is rebounding, as we have been alluding to, which is something that will likely become relevant for markets in the coming months.

Portfolio Watch – What can we trade in this weak labor environment?

<ul><li>Markets remain focused on 2-3 rate cuts from the Fed, growth not rolling over fully, and inflation continuing its downward trajectory.</li><li>There seems to be no way to change this narrative among market participants.</li><li>The slightly hawkish PCE in the US and today’s relatively high German inflation print (in harmonized terms) had a hard time moving rates markets, which are currently pricing more than 2.5 cuts from the Fed and more than 2 cuts from the ECB by year-end, with Fed September pricing even showing a tiny lean towards 50 bps.</li></ul>

Markets remain focused on 2-3 rate cuts from the Fed, growth not rolling over fully, and inflation continuing its downward trajectory.There seems to be no way to change this narrative among market participants.The slightly hawkish PCE in the US and today’s relatively high German inflation print (in harmonized terms) had a hard time moving rates markets, which are currently pricing more than 2.5 cuts from the Fed and more than 2 cuts from the ECB by year-end, with Fed September pricing even showing a tiny lean towards 50 bps.

Positioning Watch – Metals bets are finally being squared, but retail is piling in

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Markets at one point began to anticipate a risk of more than a 25 bps increase in September, and we have already seen early chatter about a rate cut from the Fed next week.</li><li>This is the kind of “loss of composure” we see when position squaring takes precedence over common sense.</li><li>We are likely approaching the point where the squaring party triggered by USDJPY is starting to impact market pricing and sentiment in nonsensical ways, as deleveraging is ongoing, even if the dust has settled a little this afternoon.</li></ul>

Markets at one point began to anticipate a risk of more than a 25 bps increase in September, and we have already seen early chatter about a rate cut from the Fed next week.This is the kind of “loss of composure” we see when position squaring takes precedence over common sense.We are likely approaching the point where the squaring party triggered by USDJPY is starting to impact market pricing and sentiment in nonsensical ways, as deleveraging is ongoing, even if the dust has settled a little this afternoon.

Central Bank Watch – We are approaching the point where the market is losing its composure

<ul>
<li>Welcome to our weekly EM editorial, where we touch upon the most tradeable topics in liquid EM markets and how they interact with main themes in G10 markets.</li>
<li>The overwhelming story centers around the position squaring party that has been triggered by the reversal of the carry trade in USDJPY.</li>
<li>The real rate spread is no longer trending upwards, leaving the fair value lower than 150 now that the spec long positioning in USD versus JPY is getting squeezed.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to our weekly EM editorial, where we touch upon the most tradeable topics in liquid EM markets and how they interact with main themes in G10 markets.
The overwhelming story centers around the position squaring party that has been triggered by the reversal of the carry trade in USDJPY.
The real rate spread is no longer trending upwards, leaving the fair value lower than 150 now that the spec long positioning in USD versus JPY is getting squeezed.


EM Watch: Knock-outing the EM darlings, while inflation is returning in EM space

<ul><li>Today, I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.</li><li>These are the key questions I will address, and I will summarize both the pros and cons of each viewpoint, including my own bottom line: Is liquidity no longer improving, but rather at risk of weakening in the coming months? Is the economy accelerating rather than slowing? Is the commodity complex heavily undervalued or overvalued?</li><li>The equity rotation paired with the sharp sell-off in Tech has had me thinking, and we therefore need to litmus-test every corner of our current thesis. Follow along below.</li></ul>

Today, I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.These are the key questions I will address, and I will summarize both the pros and cons of each viewpoint, including my own bottom line: Is liquidity no longer improving, but rather at risk of weakening in the coming months? Is the economy accelerating rather than slowing? Is the commodity complex heavily undervalued or overvalued?The equity rotation paired with the sharp sell-off in Tech has had me thinking, and we therefore need to litmus-test every corner of our current thesis. Follow along below.

Steno Signals #109 – What if We Are All Wrong on Liquidity, Rates and Commodities?

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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Portfolio Watch – What can we trade in this weak labor environment?

What a crazy day (week), starting August off with a somewhat disastrous NFP report. Private sector jobs are trending down, government payrolls are...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Metals bets are finally being squared, but retail is piling in

Markets remain focused on 2-3 rate cuts from the Fed, growth not rolling over fully, and inflation continuing its downward trajectory. There seems...

Steno Research

Central Bank Watch – We are approaching the point where the market is losing its composure

Markets at one point began to anticipate a risk of more than a 25 bps increase in September, and we have already seen early chatter about a rate...

Steno Research

EM Watch: Knock-outing the EM darlings, while inflation is returning in EM space

Welcome to our weekly EM editorial, where we touch upon the most tradeable topics in liquid EM markets and how they interact with main themes in...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #109 – What if We Are All Wrong on Liquidity, Rates and Commodities?

I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)