External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Volume Growth Continues to Disappoint: CIL’s coal production in Q2FY26 stood at 145 MT (down 4% YoY) vs. the target of 169 MT, with production down YoY across subsidiaries except at NCL and SECL.</li><li>Coal offtake in Q2FY26 stood at 166 MT vs. the target of 197 MT, down 1% YoY.</li><li>The weak offtake is partly explained by lower peak demand in Q2FY26 and the extended monsoon. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Volume Growth Continues to Disappoint: CIL’s coal production in Q2FY26 stood at 145 MT (down 4% YoY) vs. the target of 169 MT, with production down YoY across subsidiaries except at NCL and SECL.Coal offtake in Q2FY26 stood at 166 MT vs. the target of 197 MT, down 1% YoY.The weak offtake is partly explained by lower peak demand in Q2FY26 and the extended monsoon. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal India Ltd - Weak Q2 Inline with Expectations; Volume Growth Continues to Disappoint

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>CIL reports 8.5% drop in June output, while private and captive mines post double-digit growth</li>
<li>Unusual monsoon, logistics bottlenecks, and subsidiary underperformance drag PSU volumes</li>
<li>Unless execution improves in Q2 and beyond, outlook on CIL remains cautious amid structural market shifts.</li>
</ul>


CIL reports 8.5% drop in June output, while private and captive mines post double-digit growth
Unusual monsoon, logistics bottlenecks, and subsidiary underperformance drag PSU volumes
Unless execution improves in Q2 and beyond, outlook on CIL remains cautious amid structural market shifts.


India Coal Sector Q1 FY26: Private Miners Surge, CIL Stumbles

<ul><li>Adj EBITDA (exl. stripping activities) stood largely inline with our estimate at Rs 11,229 Cr (up 14%/8% YoY/QoQ).</li><li>E-auction premium stood marginally better than our estimate at 69% (vs. our est. of 61%), down from 76% in Q3FY25 but almost flat YoY (66% in Q4FY24).</li><li>ASP stood at Rs 1,702/t (flat YoY and up 2% QoQ). It stood largely in line with our estimate.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Adj EBITDA (exl. stripping activities) stood largely inline with our estimate at Rs 11,229 Cr (up 14%/8% YoY/QoQ).E-auction premium stood marginally better than our estimate at 69% (vs. our est. of 61%), down from 76% in Q3FY25 but almost flat YoY (66% in Q4FY24).ASP stood at Rs 1,702/t (flat YoY and up 2% QoQ). It stood largely in line with our estimate.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal India Ltd - Q4 Results Largely Inline; Coal Offtake Growth Remains Crucial

<ul>
<li>Coal India reported flat EBITDA YoY in FY25, with lower e-auction realizations offset by cost control; record-high volumes but profitability impacted by NSR pressures.</li>
<li>FY26 guidance implies 7–8% offtake growth but appears largely aspirational given historical shortfalls; management remains cautious on realizations with weaker e-auction pricing and only modest FSA escalations.</li>
<li>Valuations appear cheap at ~6.7x FY25 EPS but are justified by margin risks from the FY27 wage hike and limited operating leverage on an already high volume base.</li>
</ul>


Coal India reported flat EBITDA YoY in FY25, with lower e-auction realizations offset by cost control; record-high volumes but profitability impacted by NSR pressures.
FY26 guidance implies 7–8% offtake growth but appears largely aspirational given historical shortfalls; management remains cautious on realizations with weaker e-auction pricing and only modest FSA escalations.
Valuations appear cheap at ~6.7x FY25 EPS but are justified by margin risks from the FY27 wage hike and limited operating leverage on an already high volume base.


Coal India: Volume Strength Intact, Profitability Headwinds Emerging

<ul>
<li>COAL's production growth during Apr-Feb 25 has slowed to 1.5% yoy due to a high base effect and is unlikely to grow significantly in the near future</li>
<li>Regulated pricing mechanism means low correlation to international price movements. E-auction (10-12% of volumes) prices crash -25% yoy in line with international trends, impacting profitability</li>
<li>Single digit PE is in line with historic multiples. Wage renegotiations due in June 2026, rising coal production from captive producers, surge in renewable capacities are headwinds</li>
</ul>


COAL's production growth during Apr-Feb 25 has slowed to 1.5% yoy due to a high base effect and is unlikely to grow significantly in the near future
Regulated pricing mechanism means low correlation to international price movements. E-auction (10-12% of volumes) prices crash -25% yoy in line with international trends, impacting profitability
Single digit PE is in line with historic multiples. Wage renegotiations due in June 2026, rising coal production from captive producers, surge in renewable capacities are headwinds


India

Coal India Limited produces and markets coal and coal products, as well as provides related consulting services.

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Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)

Coal India Ltd - Weak Q2 Inline with Expectations; Volume Growth Continues to Disappoint

Volume Growth Continues to Disappoint: CIL’s coal production in Q2FY26 stood at 145 MT (down 4% YoY) vs. the target of 169 MT, with production down...

Axis Direct

India Coal Sector Q1 FY26: Private Miners Surge, CIL Stumbles

CIL's June output drops 8.5% due to monsoon, logistics issues, and underperforming subsidiaries, while private mines see growth. Outlook cautious...

Rahul Jain

Coal India Ltd - Q4 Results Largely Inline; Coal Offtake Growth Remains Crucial

E-auction premium stood marginally better than our estimate at 69% (vs. our est. of 61%), down from 76% in Q3FY25 but almost flat YoY (66% in Q4FY24).

Axis Direct

Coal India: Volume Strength Intact, Profitability Headwinds Emerging

Coal India's flat EBITDA in FY25 due to lower e-auction prices and NSR pressures, with FY26 guidance seen as aspirational and valuations justified...

Rahul Jain

Coal India (COAL IN) Value Trap

Coal production growth in India has slowed to 1.5% yoy, unlikely to see significant growth due to high base effect and other factors like wage...

Rahul Jain

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Coal India Ltd - Weak Q2 Inline with Expectations; Volume Growth Continues to Disappoint

Volume Growth Continues to Disappoint: CIL’s coal production in Q2FY26 stood at 145 MT (down 4% YoY) vs. the target of 169 MT, with production down...

Axis Direct

India Coal Sector Q1 FY26: Private Miners Surge, CIL Stumbles

​CIL's June output drops 8.5% due to monsoon, logistics issues, and underperforming subsidiaries, while private mines see growth. Outlook cautious...

Rahul Jain

Coal India Ltd - Q4 Results Largely Inline; Coal Offtake Growth Remains Crucial

E-auction premium stood marginally better than our estimate at 69% (vs. our est. of 61%), down from 76% in Q3FY25 but almost flat YoY (66% in Q4FY24).

Axis Direct

Coal India: Volume Strength Intact, Profitability Headwinds Emerging

​Coal India's flat EBITDA in FY25 due to lower e-auction prices and NSR pressures, with FY26 guidance seen as aspirational and valuations justified...

Rahul Jain

Coal India (COAL IN) Value Trap

​Coal production growth in India has slowed to 1.5% yoy, unlikely to see significant growth due to high base effect and other factors like wage...

Rahul Jain

CIL's June output drops 8.5% due to monsoon, logistics issues, and underperforming subsidiaries, while private mines see growth. Outlook cautious...

Coal India's flat EBITDA in FY25 due to lower e-auction prices and NSR pressures, with FY26 guidance seen as aspirational and valuations justified...

Coal production growth in India has slowed to 1.5% yoy, unlikely to see significant growth due to high base effect and other factors like wage...