Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven


For the month of December, 19 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$14bn.


Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.






New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




Asaleo Care Ltd (AHY AU) 
Toiletries
0.3
Possible Scheme
24.7%


Asaleo (ASX: AHY)/Essity: Bottom Feeders







amaysim Australia (AYS AU) 
Mobile operator
0.2
Off-market takeover




Amaysim/WAM: A Question Of Franking Credits
Amaysim (AYS AU): A WAM RAM Stoush




WPP AUNZ (WPP AU) 
Marketing
0.1
Scheme
71%



WPP AUNZ: Mad Men At Work WPP AUNZ: More Mad Men At Work







Hong Kong




China Logistics Property (1589 HK) 
Logistics

Possible Offer



China Logistics (1589 HK): Possible Offer As Major Shareholders Seek Exit



Cowell E Holdings (1415 HK) 
Parts supplier
0.6
Possible MGO
2.98%


Cowell (1415 HK): "Maintain Listing" MGO



Huifu Payment Limited (1806 HK) 
Service provider
0.1
Scheme
26.8%



Huifu Payment (1806 HK): Scheme Offer
Huifu Payment (1806 HK): Early Withdrawal?




I.T Ltd (999 HK) 
Fashion
0.2
Scheme
54.6%


I.T. (999 HK): Management/CVC-Led Offer



SHK Hong Kong Industries (666 HK) 
Securities
0.1
Scheme
50.0%


SHK (666 HK): Allied Group Further Cleans House With Scheme Offer






Japan




Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP) 
Refiner
0.2
Tender Offer
23%


Idemitsu Launches Lowball Tender Offer for Subsidiary Toa Oil (5008)










Malaysia




FGV Holdings Bhd (FGV MK) 
Palm Plantation
0.6
MTO
2.4%



FGV Holdings: Reading the Palm Fronds
FGV Holdings: Low-Ball MTO Triggered











New Zealand




Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ) 
Utilities
3.8
Possible Scheme
22.2%


Infratil (IFT NZ): Big Super's Infrastructure Grab






Philippines




Lopez Holdings (LPZ PM) 
Utilities
0.2
Vol. delisting
25%


Lopez Holdings (LPZ PM): Reverse Voluntary Delisting










Singapore




Hi P International (HIP SP) 
Manufacturing
0.2
Unconditional Offer
13.6%


Hi-P International: Unconditional Offer



Soilbuild Business Space REIT (SBREIT SP) 
REIT
0.4
Scheme



Soilbuild REIT: Offer From Blackstone/Lim Family










Taiwan




Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT) 
Finance
1.8
Tender Offer
18.7%


Fubon Financial Tender Offer for Jih Sun Financial



Thinflex Corp (3144 TT) 
Manufacturing
0.1
Partial Offer
7.15%


Arisawa (5208 JP) Partial Tender for ThinFlex (3144 TT)










Europe




Calisen PLC (1779730D LN) 
Energy
1.9
Cash Offer
26.3%


Recommended Private Equity Cash Offer



Recipharm AB (RECIB SS) 
Pharmaceuticals
2.8
Mandatory Offer
22.9%


Recipharm-EQT Takeout



Tele Columbus AG (TC1 GR) 
Fibre networks
0.5
Voluntary Offer
41.3%


Tele Columbus AG - Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Agreed Bid


Source: Smartkarma Insights 




The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was ~27% and the YTD average premium for all deals discussed on Smartkarma (158 all-in) is ~31%.  The average for all deals discussed on Smartkarma in 2019 (145 deals all-in) was, coincidentally, 31.5%.


The charts below provide a snapshot of deals YTD discussed on Smartkarma. Where the deal is a merger of equals or similar, I've assigned no premium.







Summary of News in December of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation. Where a new insight was written on these names in July, I've included a link, in bold, to that insight in italics.)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

No December update




Cardinal Resources (CDV AU) 

23-Dec: Cardinal Resources: Shandong's Indicative Bump
24-Dec: Cardinal Resources (CDV AU). Exit Nord Gold, Enter Dongshan.




Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) 

No December update




DWS Ltd (DWS AU) 

24-Dec: Scheme effective




Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 

7-Dec: Link Admin (LNK AU): SS&amp;C Trumps PEP/Carlyle




Northern Star Resources (NST AU) 

10-Dec: Scheme book registered with ASIC for the Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU) / Northern Star Resources (NST AU) merger. IFA says fair &amp; reasonable.




Regis Healthcare (REG AU) 

No December update




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

No December update




Village Roadshow (VRL AU) 

4-Dec: BGH declares Offer for Village Roadshow (VRL AU) "best and final".   7-Dec: Both resolutions passed - 83.71% for Structure A and 84.95% for Structure B. Trading in Village Roadshow (VRL AU) to be suspended at the close of trading on the 16 December. 




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

No December update











Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) 

8-Dec: Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK)'s composite doc delayed, as expected, to 31 Dec (on or before), from 8 Dec.
31-Dec: Composite doc is now out. THe H share class meeting is the 19 Feb. IFA says fair &amp; reasonable. 




Car Inc (699 HK) 
4-Dec: Car Inc (699 HK) has delayed the despatch of its Composite Doc to "within 7 days of fulfilment of the Pre-Conditions or 21 May 2021 (being 7 days following the No December update



CIMC-TianDa Holdings (445 HK) 
24-Dec: Scheme approved




Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) 

10-Dec: StubWorld: Last Roll Of The Dice For Haier




Hengxing Gold Holding (2303 HK) 

22-Dec: Scheme Document has now been issued. The EGM is the 13 January. First day of dealing in the new SDGM H shares is the 5 February. IFA says fair &amp; reasonable.




Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) 

5-Dec: Pre-cons fulfilled for the Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) Offer. Composite Doc to be despatched on or before the 11 December. 
10-Dec: Offer doc despatched.




Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) 

18-Dec: The MGO for Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) has closed with Alibaba holding 83.37%. The free float has fallen to 15.8159%. Alibaba will take steps to restore the float. Shares will continue to trade. 












India


Comments (with links to insights)




Allcargo Logistics (AGLL IN) 

No December update




Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) 

No December update




INEOS Styrolution India Limited (INEOS IN) 

2-Dec: INEOS Styrolution India Limited (INEOS IN) has been on a tear since just before earnings on 10 November.  The stock is up nearly 40% since the beginning of November.  Standalone net profit rose 262%yoy in the quarter to Rs 35.84 crore. Sales were down 10%yoy to Rs 394.58 crore.











Japan


Comments (with links to insights)




Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
No December update



Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

No December update




Imasen Electric Industrial (7266 JP) 

9-Dec: The results of the Imasen Electric Industrial (7266 JP) Tender Offer have been announced. 7.161mm shares were tendered against a 5.209mm share buy which means a 72.75% pro-ration. 




Japan Asia (3751 JP) 

11-Dec: City Index Eleventh is now 14.91% of the register at Japan Asia (3751 JP).




Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) 

25-Dec: The bidder for Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) announced a change in the end date for the Tender Offer, changing the end date from 28 December 2020 to 25 January 2021.  28-Dec: Today Black Clover Limited reported that they had increased their position in Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) to 10.97%. 




Kansai Mirai Financial (7321 JP) 

10-Dec: The Tender Offer for Kansai Mirai Financial (7321 JP), interestingly, ended up gaining more shares tendered than the minimum. 34.44mm showed up. The pro-ration is 100% so no issues there, but it likely means other cross-holders decided to take the cash.




Keihanshin Building (8818 JP) 

17-Dec:  UGS and Strategic extended their partial tender offer for Keihanshin Building (8818 JP) from 17 Dec 2020 to 12 Jan 2021. It is not clear why - if the shares fall a bit, they could get hit, otherwise this is destined to be unsuccessful. 




Kenedix Inc (4321 JP) 

7-Dec: Fidelity was a 9+% holder of Kenedix Inc (4321 JP)  prior to the Tender Offer being launched and today reported that they are a 0.92% holder triggered by a change effective on 30 November.




Medical &amp; Biological Laboratories (4557 JP) 

No December update




NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) 

2-Dec: The NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) selldown for TOPIX was expected to be 30-33mm shares. We saw 34.8mm shares on the day which is about 26-28mm shares more than normal. That should be the last of the Docomo selling by passive. From now until month-end it is basically just the residual and arbs selling to each other.




Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP) 

11-Dec: It appears that DCM Holdings (3050 JP) has not extended the Tender Offer for Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP) which they had extended until today.  That suggests they are done with their bid, or that they will go in partnership to launch a new one.  I expect it is the former.
14-Dec: DCM Holdings (3050 JP)'s Tender Offer lapses.  They needed 19+mm shares to succeed. They got 32,000.  Nothing done here.  It looks like Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)'s bid for Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP) goes through.
29-Dec: Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) today announced that it had successfully completed the Tender Offer for Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP), gaining 77.04% of the shares outstanding. 




Softbrain (4779 JP) 

No December update




Tohto Suisan (8038 JP) 

No December update




Tokyo Dome Corp (9681 JP) 

1-Dec: Tokyo Dome – Assessing the Realism of Oasis Estimates
3-Dec: ISS Takes Umbrage with Tokyo Dome, Recommends Booting the CEO from the Board
8-Dec: Oasis Agrees To Tender Tokyo Dome (9681) - This Changes Things
17-Dec: Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) announces Tender Agreement with Oasis on Tokyo Dome Corp (9681 JP) 




Yomiuri Land (9671 JP) 

No December update










Malaysia


Comments (with links to insights and announcements)




Batu Kawan Bhd (BAK MK) 

No December update











Singapore


Comments (with links to announcements)




ESR-REIT (EREIT SP) / Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial REIT (SSREITR SP) 

6-Dec: Chalk one up for investors as the ESR-REIT (EREIT SP) / Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT (SSREIT SP) merger is voted down.













Thailand


Comments 




COL PCL (COL TB) 
No December update












Middle East


Comments 




Samba Financial Group (SAMBA AB) /
National Commercial Bank (NCB AB) 

No December update










Europe/UK


Comments (with links to announcements and insights)




Ahlstrom-Munksjo (AM1 FH) 
No December update



Altice NV A (ATC NA) 


16-Dec: Next Private increases offer price to EUR 5.35 Boussard &amp; Gavaudan, Diameter, Elliott, LB Partners, Lucerne, Sessa, Sheffield and Winterbrook commit to tender their Listed Shares under the Offer.




Aryzta AG (ARYN VX) 


No December update




CaixaBank SA (CABK SM) 
7-Dec: CaixaBank - Bankia: Merger Approval at the EGMs, Spread




Entra ASA (ENTRA NO) 

28-Dec: Entra - SBB - Castellum: Bidding War Heats Up




G4S PLC (GFS LN) 

2-Dec: GardaWorld has increased its offer for G4S PLC (GFS LN) to GBp 235/ share and has said that the new offer is final and will not be increased further.
8-Dec: G4S has agreed to a 245 pence per share takeover offer from U.S.-based Allied Universal, the companies said on Tuesday, days after Canada’s GardaWorld had sweetened its bid to 235 pence per share for the British company.
11-Dec: Allied Universal's Agreed Offer




Globalwafers (6488 TT) 
21-Dec: GlobalWafers Cash Offer




Play Communications SA (1P1 GR) 
No December update



RSA Insurance (RSA LN) 
No December update



Talktalk Telecom (TALK LN) 
No December update



William Hill (WMH LN) 
No December update





Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy / Event-Driven


For the month of November, 18 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.


Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.






New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia



Regis Healthcare (REG AU) 
Retirement
0.4
Poss. Scheme
25%


Regis Healthcare (REG AU): Potential New Home For The Old


Think Childcare (TNK AU) 
Childcare
0.1
Poss. Scheme
8%


Think Childcare (TNK AU) : Takeover Proposal From Alceon Group Seems Light


Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 
Agriculture
0.1
Scheme
27.4%


Vitalharvest (VTH AU): Macquarie Doesn't See A Lemon






Hong Kong




Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) 
Energy
2.8
Vol. Offer
70.89%


Beijing Jingneng (579 HK): Privatisation Offer From Parent






Japan



Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 
Chemical
0.1
Tender Offer
42.6%


Honshu Chemical (4115) - An Embarrassment of Riches


Imasen Electric Industrial (7266 JP) 
Auto parts
0.1
Partial Tender
41%


Imasen Electric Partial Tender - Set Governance to Ludicrous Mode


Japan Asia (3751 JP) 
Community ops
0.2
Tender Offer
70.5%


Japan Asia (3751 JP) Management Buyout: Should There Be a BUMP?


Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) 
Construction
0.1
Tender Offer
32%


SmallCap Joban Kaihatsu Founder Tries a Free MBO


Kansai Mirai Financial (7321 JP) 
Financials
0.6
Tender Offer
3%


Resona To Take Kansai Mirai Private!







Keihanshin Building (8818 JP) 

Building leasing
0.2
Partial Tender
1%


Opportunistic Keihanshin (8818) Tender Offer Designed to Fail


Kenedix Inc (4321 JP) 
Real estate
1.25
Tender Offer
32%


A Curiously Unsatisfying Takeover Bid For Kenedix


Tohto Suisan (8038 JP) 
Fresh seafood
0.2
Partial Tender
9.2%


Tohto Suisan Partial Tender Offer - A Weird Tender Which Leads To Listed Zombie-Ism


Tokyo Dome Corp (9681 JP) 
Amusement parks
1.0
Rumoured



Mitsui Fudosan Tender For Tokyo Dome (9681) Mooted, and Tokyo Dome Sells Itself For the Wrong Price  


Yomiuri Land (9671 JP) 
Theme Park
0.4
Tender Offer
26%


Yomiuri Land (9671) Takeover - Probably The Wrong Price But Whaddya Gonna Do?










Malaysia



Batu Kawan Bhd (BAK MK) 
Chemical/rubber
0.1
MGO
13.14%


Batu Kawan (BAK MK)'s Mandatory Offer for CCM: Low Risk Risk Arb






US



China Biologic Products (CBPO US) 
Medical
1.9
Merger
16.8%


China Biologics (CBPO US): Firm Offer Backed By Prerequisite Votes










Europe/UK



Aryzta AG (ARYN VX) 
B2B solutions
0.9
Indicative Offer
32%


Aryzta - Elliott: Prospective Offer


RSA Insurance (RSA LN) 
Insurance
9.5
Offer
48%


RSA - Intact Financial &amp; Tryg: Generous Break-Up Takeover Proposal





Source: Smartkarma Insights

The above does not include the US$0.2bn SPA for amaysim Australia (AYS AU) discussed in Amaysim To Be Wound-Up After Mobile Sale.

Technically, China Biologic Products (CBPO US) was first mentioned on Smartkarma 14 months ago - but now we have a firm offer.


The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was ~29% and the YTD average premium for all deals discussed on Smartkarma (139 all-in) is ~31.5%.  The average for all deals discussed on Smartkarma in 2019 (145 deals all-in) was 31.5%.



The charts below provide a snapshot of deals YTD discussed on Smartkarma. Where the deal is a merger of equals or similar, I've assigned no premium.







Summary of News in November of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation. Where a new insight was written on these names in July, I've included a link, in bold, to that insight in italics.)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

15-Nov: 3P Learning (3PL AU) : Indian Ed-Tech Giant BYJU's Competitive Bid 24-Nov: 3P Learning (3PL AU): Ed-Tech Deal Faces a New Twist




Cardinal Resources (CDV AU) 

4-Nov: In an ASX update, Cardinal Resources (CDV AU) goes into detail the numerous Takeover Panel applications. All of a bit of a mess right now.  25-Nov: Cardinal Resources: Three's A Crowd 26-Nov: Nordgold extends its Offer until the 14 December for Cardinal Resources (CDV AU) while continuing to air its concerns over E&amp;P's Offer. Cardinal continues to unanimously recommend Shandong's Offer.




Citadel Group (CGL AU) 

No November update




Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) 

4-Nov: A Scheme implementation Deed has now been entered into, at $12.75/share. The Scheme Meeting is expected to be held in early/mid-March, with an expected implementation date in late March/early April. 




Cromwell Property (CMW AU) 

17-Nov: Board spill for Cromwell Property (CMW AU). One more step for ARA.  26-Nov: ARA's proportional Offer will close on the 30 November.




DWS Ltd (DWS AU) 

No November update




Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 

25-Nov: An update to say there is no update




OptiComm Ltd (OPC AU) 

3-Nov: OptiComm Ltd (OPC AU) announced it "not received any contact whatsoever from Aware Super " since 15 October.
6-Nov: OptiComm Ltd (OPC AU) shareholders overwhelmingly approve Scheme.




Northern Star Resources (NST AU) 

25-Nov: some finance conditions are met




Village Roadshow (VRL AU) 

9-Nov: In a new announcement, Village Roadshow (VRL AU) said the A$0.12/share uplift is now locked in.
12-Nov: Spheria said it will vote against Scheme B for Village Roadshow (VRL AU).
17-Nov: Mittleman ups stake in Village Roadshow (VRL AU) to 14.34% from 12.87%.
23-Nov: Village Roadshow: Rollercoaster Economics
27-Nov: Mittleman Brothers posted a presentation, which describes its concerns regarding the currently proposed takeover of VLR.  "The current A$2.95 to A$3.00 range of best outcomes provided still appears unfairly low versus our estimate of indicative fair value which is currently A$5.24 per share."





 




Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Allied Properties (H.K.) (56 HK) 
26-Nov: The High Court just upheld the appeal. And the Scheme will now be sanctioned Allied Prop (56 HK): In High Court Today .... 




AMVIG Holdings (2300 HK) 
2-Nov: The Composite doc has now been delayed until the 18 November.   18-Nov: Offer doc for AMVIG Holdings (2300 HK) is out. The first close is the 9 December. The IFA says the Offer is fair &amp; reasonable.   25-Nov: Offer for AMVIG Holdings (2300 HK) now declared unconditional in all respects. 



Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) 
18-Nov: Beijing Jingneng (579 HK): Privatisation Offer From Parent




Car Inc (699 HK) 
14-Nov: Car Inc (699 HK): MBK's Firm Offer




Changshouhua Food (1006 HK) 

11-Nov: China Zhongdi Dairy (1492 HK) will hold an EGM on the 2 December to consider the Offer from Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH).
19-Nov: Fortune Hero, with 4.04%, has given an irrevocable to accept the Offer for China Zhongdi Dairy (1492 HK).
25-Nov: More irrevocables trickle in for China Zhongdi Dairy (1492 HK). This takes the shares held plus irrevocables to 96.58%, and is therefore expected to turn unconditional on the 7th day after the despatch of the Composite Doc.




CIMC-TianDa Holdings (445 HK) 
No November update



Cross Harbour Holdings (32 HK) 
4-Nov: The Offer is now unconditional in all respects. The Offer will remain open for acceptances until the 23 November. 



Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) 

25-Nov: Composite Doc despatched for Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK).




Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) 

14-Nov:Pre-conditions have now been fulfilled for the Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) Offer. 16-Nov: Haier Electric (1169 HK): The "H-Share" Guessing Game




Hengxing Gold Holding (2303 HK) 

3-Nov: As expected, the despatch of the Scheme Doc has been pushed back to 30 November, from 4 November.
13-Nov: Pre-conditions have now been fulfilled for the Hengxing Gold Holding (2303 HK) Offer.




Leyou Technologies (1089 HK) 

12-Nov: Leyou Tech (1089 HK): Offer Doc Despatched




Macau Legend Development (1680 HK) 

2-Nov: The Composite Document is out. The closing date is the 24 November. The IFA says fair &amp; reasonable.




Powerleader Science &amp; Technology Group (8236 HK) 

No November update




Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) 

3-Nov: As expected, the Composite Doc for  Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) has been delayed until 22 January, if need be. 
25-Nov: SEG's shareholders approve the merger of Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK). This is one of the pre-cons. Regulatory approvals form other pre-cons are still outstanding. 




Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) 

9-Nov: As expected, the Composite Doc has been delayed - but only for a week, and is now expected to be despatched on or before the 18 November. 
27-Nov: Sun Art (6808 HK): Offer Doc Out. Not Fair And Reasonable




Yixin Group Ltd (2858 HK) 
6-Nov: Yixin (2858 HK)’s Downstream Unconditional MGO 11-Nov: Composite Doc is out for Yixin Group Ltd (2858 HK). The first (&amp; probably last) close is the 2 December. 











India


Comments (with links to insights)




Allcargo Logistics (AGLL IN) 

No November update




Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) 

No November update




INEOS Styrolution India Limited (INEOS IN) 

No November update













Japan


Comments (with links to insights)




Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
No November update, but Oasis now over 5%



Medical &amp; Biological Laboratories (4557 JP) 

No November update




NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) 

11-Nov: NTT/Docomo - The KDDI Quibble
17-Nov:Surprising NTT Docomo Tender Result Accelerates Squeezeout, Great Re-Allocation, Nikkei 225 Change
27-Nov: The Other Docomo Selldown and TOPIX Buy  Delisting scheduled for late December.




Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP) 

13-Nov: Nitori's Bid for Shimachu Goes Friendly as Shimachu Dumps DCM
16-Nov: DCM Holdings (3050 JP) has extended its Tender Offer for Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP) by 10 days, so now it ends on 1 December 2020.  This gives it time to await an expected Phase 1 decision by the JFTC regarding the bid by Nitori Holdings (9843 JP). It was something of a no-brainer for them to extend.   On 27Nov, DCM extended again.




Softbrain (4779 JP) 

Tender Offer succeeded.  27Nov: EGM to consolidate is 29 Dec. Delisting to be 19 Jan.














Singapore


Comments (with links to insights and announcements)




ESR-REIT (EREIT SP) / Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial REIT (SSREITR SP) 

27-Nov:  ESR-REIT/Sabana: Furphys And Fear-Mongering
















Thailand


Comments 




COL PCL (COL TB) 
No November update


















Middle East


Comments 




Samba Financial Group (SAMBA AB) /
National Commercial Bank (NCB AB) 

No November update










Europe/UK


Comments (with links to announcements and insights)




Ahlstrom-Munksjo (AM1 FH) 
No November update



Altice NV A (ATC NA) 


No November update




CaixaBank SA (CABK SM) 
No November update



G4S PLC (GFS LN) 
6-Nov: G4S Playing Hard-To-Get




Play Communications SA (1P1 GR) 
No November update



Talktalk Telecom (TALK LN) 
No November update



William Hill (WMH LN) 
No November update





Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

The takeover offer by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coca-cola-european-partners" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29709:1" rel="noopener">Coca-Cola European Partners (CCEP US)</a> (CCEP) to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coca-cola-amatil-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:675:1" rel="noopener">Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU)</a> (CCL) at A$12.75 per share in cash, adjusted for 2H20 dividends paid, was at a 23% premium to CCL‘s undisturbed one-week volume-weighted price.We discussed this in our insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-generous-offer-by-coca-cola-european-partners" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A Generous Offer By Coca-Cola European Partners</a> and deemed that CCEP’s offer was more than reasonable.However, it appears that at least four fund managers who collectively own about 9-10% of CCL shares consider that the offer materially undervalues the company.

The takeover offer by Coca-Cola European Partners (CCEP US) (CCEP) to acquire Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) (CCL) at A$12.75 per share in cash, adjusted for 2H20 dividends paid, was at a 23% premium to CCL‘s undisturbed one-week volume-weighted price.We discussed this in our insight, A Generous Offer By Coca-Cola European Partners and deemed that CCEP’s offer was more than reasonable.However, it appears that at least four fund managers who collectively own about 9-10% of CCL shares consider that the offer materially undervalues the company.

Growing Investor Opposition to CCEP's Take Over Offer: Will There Be a Bump?

Last Week in Event SPACE: Coca Cola Amatil, Shimachu, AMP, Hitachi, Jardines, Evergrande


For the month of October, 15 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$31bn.


Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.






New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) 
Beverage Bottler
6.9
Poss. Scheme
25%


Coca Cola Amatil: Flat Or Fizzy?







Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 
Super registry
2.1
Poss. Scheme
30%


Link Admin/PEP: All Together Now. Again Link Admin: Hardball Tactics After Meagre Bump 



Northern Star Resources (NST AU) / Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU) 
Mining
4.4
Scheme




Northern Star/Saracen: Merger Of Equals
Saracen – Trade the Northern Star Deal and Then Stay Long Northern Star




Hong Kong




CIMC-TianDa Holdings (445 HK) 
Airport facilities
0.3
Scheme
20.36%


CIMC-Tianda (445 HK): Scheme Offer Lead By CIMC



Hengxing Gold Holding (2303 HK) 
Mining
0.3
Pre-con Scheme
(2.43%)


Hengxing (2303 HK): Offer From Shandong Gold



Powerleader Science &amp; Tech (8236 HK) 
Cloud Computing
0.1
Merger by Absorption
14.6%


Powerleader (8236 HK): Small Deal, Trading Wide



Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) 
Turbines
0.4
Merger by Absorption
68.4%


Shanghai Prime (2345 HK): Delisting Offer From Parent



Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) 
Hypermarkets
2.2
MGO
2.14%


Sun Art (6808 HK): Alibaba Takes Control



Japan




Medical &amp; Biological Lab (4557 JP) 
Diagnostics
0.1
Tender Offer
23.8%


JSR (4185 JP) Tender Offer for Medical &amp; Biological Labs (4557 JP)


Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP)
Retailer
1.6 - 2.1
Tender Offer
45.8%/91.0%



DCM Does a Full Takeover of Shimachu - Looks Like a Strong Price. Look Again Nitori To Make a Rival Bid for Shimachu? More Fun To Go 
Gaming Out a Nitori Bid for Shimachu Nitori Bids UP For Shimachu - Now Things Slow Down  




US




HUYA Inc (HUYA US) 
Gaming
7.2
Merger



Huya – Generous for Douyu and the New Global Streaming Landscape Gets Interesting



PNM Resources (PNM US) 
Energy
4.3
Tender Offer
10%


PNM Resources - Iberdrola: Friendly Acquisition



Wanda Sports Group (WSG US) 
Events
0.1
Prelim Proposal
38.9%


Wanda Sports (WSG US): Preliminary Proposal From Dalian Wanda



Europe/UK




G4S PLC (GFS LN) 
Security Service
0.4
Cash Offer
30%


G4S - GardaWorld: Lowball Offer



Talktalk Telecom (TALK LN) 
Telco
1.0
Non-binding Offer
17%


TalkTalk - Toscafund: Preliminary &amp; Non-Binding Proposal





Source: Smartkarma Insights


The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was ~25% and the YTD average premium for all deals discussed on Smartkarma (121 all-in) is ~32%.  The average for all deals discussed on Smartkarma in 2019 (145 deals all-in) was 31.5%.



The charts below provide a snapshot of deals YTD discussed on Smartkarma. Where the deal is a merger of equals or similar, I've assigned no premium.







Summary of News in October of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation. Where a new insight was written on these names in July, I've included a link, in bold, to that insight in italics.)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

15-Oct: FRB approval 20-Oct: Scheme Meeting set for the 20 Nov




Cardinal Resources (CDV AU) 

22-Oct: Cardinal Resources: Nordgold's "Competing Offer"
23-Oct: Cardinal announced that shareholders holding 19.38% of shares out intend to accept Shandong's unconditional off-market Offer by 30 October - provided there be no superior proposal, or is Shandong extends its Offer (currently expected to close on the 30 October, unless extended). 23-Oct: Nordgold has now lodged an application with the Takeovers Panel concerning “the clear and unambiguous interpretation” of Shandong’s Last and Final Statement.
27-Oct: Nordgold has withdrawn its Takeovers Panel application. But stands its ground that Shandong's statements are materially misleading.




Citadel Group (CGL AU) 

29-Oct: Scheme Meeting set for the 1 December.




Cromwell Property (CMW AU) 

No October update




DWS Ltd (DWS AU) 

13-Oct: DWS will not declare or pay any permitted special dividend. The Scheme payment will be fixed at A$1.20/share.




OptiComm Ltd (OPC AU) 

13-Oct: OptiComm: Aware Super's Superior Optics 15-Oct: OptiComm: Uniti Sees Aware And Raises




Village Roadshow (VRL AU) 

6-Oct: Mittleman bumps stake to 10.09% (from 8.50% previously) and according to media reports, opposes BGH's Scheme.    7-Oct: Village Roadshow (VRL AU) said it would proceed with the Scheme - and is engaged in correspondence with Mittleman.   12-Oct: The Independent Expert concludes the Offer is fair &amp; reasonable. 










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Allied Properties (H.K.) (56 HK) 
5-Oct: Remarkably - the judge has declined to sanction the Scheme.
Here's the judgment. Para 66 mentions the headcount test. I have no clue why - HK-incorporated companies do not adhere to a headcount test. Baffling.
12-Oct: Allied Properties (56 HK): Amateur Hour 19-Oct: Allied has appealed the High Court judgment. The Appeal will be heard on Monday, 23rd November 2020 at 10:00 a.m.



AMVIG Holdings (2300 HK) 
4-Oct: SPA is done - conditional MGO triggered. Composite doc to be dispatched on or before 15 October.  15-Oct: Composite doc has been delayed until the 2 November from the 15 October. This was to be expected. I had the 30 October in my initial timetable. 



Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) 
5-Oct: In its monthly update, the company announces that there is no update.



Car Inc (699 HK) 
No October update



CGN New Energy Holdings (1811 HK) 
30-Sep: The deal is off.



Changshouhua Food (1006 HK) 
26-Oct: Scheme doc out - court meeting to be held on the 19 November. Cheques on (or before) the 14 December. IFA (Somerley) considers the Offer fair &amp; reasonable. 



China Zhongdi Dairy (1492 HK) 
16-Oct: The despatch of the Composite Doc has been pushed out to the 18 January 2021. A significant delay. This may not complete until early 2Q21.  23-Oct: I see 12.11% of shares out have moved into Halycon, according to CCASS. That is Green Farmlands stake, part of the Offeror's.  27-Oct: 27.99% of shares out have given irrevocables to accept the MGO. That will take the Offeror's stake to 71.74%, at a minimum, under the MGO.



Cross Harbour Holdings (32 HK) 
7-Oct: The Composite Doc has been delayed until the 23 Oct (on or before) from the 8 October. Such a delay is pretty standard.   23-Oct: The Composite Doc for Cross Harbour Holdings (32 HK) has been despatched. The first close is the 23 Nov.



Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) 

22-Oct: Composite doc dispatched for Get Nice Holdings (64 HK). The first close is the 13 November. 




Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) 

12-Oct: Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) announced that Haier Smart Home (600690 CH)'s application with the CSRC for the proposed issuance of HSH H shares is "progressing".




Leyou Technologies (1089 HK) 

8-Oct: Re: regulatory approvals, Leyou Technologies (1089 HK) said Canadain and US regulatory bodies have signed off on the Offer from Tencent Holdings (700 HK). Scheme doc to be despatched on or before the 9 November. 




Macau Legend Development (1680 HK) 

5-Oct: The stake sale completed. The MGO is now triggered. The Composite Doc is expected to be despatched on the 12 October. 12-Oct: The Composite Document has been delayed until the 21 October, from the 12 October. This was expected but is still a full month earlier than what I would have anticipated.   21-Oct: The Composite Document has now been further delayed until the 3 November. Getting closer to my 21 November despatch target. 




Yixin Group Ltd (2858 HK) 
23-Oct: Bitauto Holdings (BITA US) shareholders approve the merger plan. The merger is expected to close on or around the 10 November. The Composite Doc for Yixin Group Ltd (2858 HK)'s downstream MGO will then be despatched 7 business days later.









India


Comments (with links to insights)




Allcargo Logistics (AGLL IN) 

25-Oct: Allcargo Logistics (AGLL IN): Shareholder Vote Encouraging. Buying Opportunity




Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) 

No October update




INEOS Styrolution India Limited (INEOS IN) 

No October update




J.B. Chemicals &amp; Pharmaceut (JBCP IN) 

No October update




Sequent Scientific (SEQ IN) 

No October update




Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

4-Oct: Vedanta Limited Reports Results: KEY Info on Deal Funding Embedded 8-Oct: Vedanta Limited Reports Results: KEY Info on Deal Funding Embedded 8-Oct: Vedanta - Someone Is Playing Silly Buggers But Even On The Last Day Investor Strategy Matters 11-Oct: Vedanta Delisting Proposal/Offer Fails (We Think) 11-Oct: Vedanta (VEDL IN): A Failed Delisting Will Now Pressure The Stock 13-Oct: VEDL Delisting Fail Day1 - Reading Between the Lines of the Trading Data 21-Oct: Vedanta Limited - Caught in Economic Purgatory but Governance Hell?

















Indonesia


Comments 




Bank Permata (BNLI IJ) 

No October update











Japan


Comments (with links to insights)




Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
No October update



FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP) 

22-Oct: FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP) has now officially been designated a Security to be Delisted by the TSE. The last day of trading is November 11. Delisting Date is November 12. 22-Oct: Familymart Delisting and Its Nikkei 225 Replacement Is Nexon (3659)




Hinokiya Holdings (1413 JP) 

No October update



 Hitachi Capital (8586 JP) / Mitsubishi UFJ Lease &amp; Finance (8593 JP) 

26-Oct: The Right Trade May Be Hitachi




Keihin Corp (7251 JP) / Showa Corp (7274 JP) 

16-Oct: Honda Tenders Done - Now For The Residuals 28-Oct: The TOPIX exclusions on Showa Corp (7274 JP), Nissin Kogyo (7230 JP), and Keihin Corp (7251 JP) took place after the close. Now it will be the trickle-out until delisting. Delisting will be on 11 November, and the last day of trading will be on the 10th. Effective Date of the Acquisition is the 13th of November. 




Kirindo Holdings (3194 JP) 

16-Oct: In what might be a first that I have seen, Kirindo Holdings (3194 JP) today announced the Record Date for the EGM to be held to squeeze out minorities. That's not unusual. What IS unusual is that it has happened prior to the end of the Tender Offer. The EGM itself will be sometime in December. The date of the EGM may be announced on 19 October.  27-Oct: successful at 69.75%. Now we head to EGM and delisting. 




LIXIL VIVA (3564 JP) 

15 Oct:  Buyback Tender successful.




Mcubs Midcity Investment Cor (3227 JP) 

22-Oct: Unitholders have approved the Deal. Japan Retail Fund Investment (8953 JP) unit holders have also voted in favour of the transaction. 




Nichii Gakkan Co (9792 JP) 

Delisting expected 5 November




NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) 

13-Oct: NTT Docomo: The Three Arbs and the Great Re-Allocation Trade




Ryoyo Electro (8068 JP) 

No October update




Sanyo Chemical Ind (4471 JP) /  Nippon Shokubai (4114 JP) 
22-Oct: SanyoChem/Shokubai Deal Cancelled - The Trick Is NOT to Look Inside the Diaper




Softbrain (4779 JP) 

No October update
















New Zealand


Comments (with links to announcements)




Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ) 

3-Oct: Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ) shareholders approve Scheme.  "It is anticipated that the Scheme will be implemented and shareholders will be paid NZ$6 per share on or around 29 October 2020". 
8-Oct: Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ) has announced a "shareholder has lodged a Notice of Opposition to the High Court application for the Scheme of Arrangement with Asia Pacific Village Group Limited".
14-Oct: The High Court hearing has been delayed until the 20 October from the 15 October. 
15-Oct:  Metlifecare: Statutory Vacuum
18-Oct: The Panel has given a "no objection" statement. The Court does not have to rely on this statement - but it usually does. This looks (finally) done. 
20-Oct: Metlifecare: Scheme Sanctioned. Potential Bad Precedent Averted











Singapore


Comments (with links to insights and announcements)




Accordia Golf Trust (AGT SP) 

Now in progress/wind-down mode




Capitaland Commercial Trust (CCT SP) 

12-Oct: Capitaland Commercial Trust (CCT SP) has announced that the Trust Scheme was sanctioned by the Court yesterday and confirmed that the last trading day of the CCT units will be the 16 October.




ESR-REIT (EREIT SP) / Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial REIT (SSREITR SP) 

No October update










Taiwan


Comments 




Boardtek Electronics (5349 TT) 
No October update



Casetek Holdings (5264 TT) 
1-Oct: According to various media sources, shareholders have approved the merger with Pegatron. 








Thailand


Comments 




COL PCL (COL TB) 
No October update










Vietnam


Comments (with links to announcements)




Viglacera Corp (VGC VN) 
No October update










Middle East


Comments 




Samba Financial Group (SAMBA AB) /
National Commercial Bank (NCB AB) 

No October update









Europe/UK


Comments (with links to announcements and insights)




Ahlstrom-Munksjo (AM1 FH) 
No October update



Altice NV A (ATC NA) 
No October update



Bolsas y Mercados Espanoles (BME SM) 
No October update



CaixaBank SA (CABK SM) 
28-Oct: Bankia - CaixaBank: Merger in Progress, Spread Attractive




Play Communications SA (1P1 GR) 
No October update



William Hill (WMH LN) 
5-Oct: William Hill - Caesars (Almost) Done Deal, Trading Above Terms






Australia

Coca-Cola Amatil Limited manufactures, distributes and sells carbonated soft drinks along with still and mineral waters, fruit drinks, ready-to-drink coffee and tea and flavored milk drinks. The Company also rents and services commercial refrigeration equipment to food/beverage manufacturers.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU)

(Mostly) Asia M&A: 2020 Roundup

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David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A: November 2020 Roundup

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David Blennerhassett

Growing Investor Opposition to CCEP's Take Over Offer: Will There Be a Bump?

The takeover offer by Coca-Cola European Partners to acquire Coca Cola Amatil at A$12.75 per share in cash, adjusted for 2H20 dividends paid, has...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A: October 2020 Roundup

15 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma in October with an overall deal size of ~US$31bn. The average premium was ~25% and the YTD average...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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