Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven


For the month of May, 11 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$7.3bn.



Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow-up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.







New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




APN Property Group (APD AU) 
Property
0.2
Scheme
50%


APN Prop (APD AU): Dexus' Done Deal



Boral Ltd (BLD AU) 
Construction
4.8
Off-market
Nil


Boral Ltd (BLD AU): Seven's Nil Premium



Japara Healthcare (JHC AU) 
Healthcare
0.2
Scheme
30%


Japara Healthcare (JHC AU): Here Comes The Calvary


 



Hong Kong




Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK) 
Banking
0.2
Scheme
51.2%



Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK): Takeover Talk As Shares Pop
Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK): Yue Xiu's Offer Is Light



 



Japan




Aomori Bank (8342 JP) / Michinoku Bank (8350 JP) 
Bank
0.6
Merger



Aomori Bank &amp; Michinoku Bank Merger - Nothing To Write Home About Yet



EPS Holdings (4282 JP) 
Data/software
0.1
Tender Offer
35.5%


Another Too-Cheap MBO as Founder Takes Out EPS


 Locoguide (4497 JP) / Kufu (4399 JP)

Real estate
0.4
Merger



Locoguide (4497 JP) - Kufu (4399 JP): Merger Is a Done Deal



Maruka Machinery (7594 JP) / Furusato Industries (8087 JP) 
Trading
0.4
Merger



A Complex SmallCap Merger in Japan: Maruka (7594) And Furusato (8087)



Secom Joshinetsu (4342 JP) 
Security
0.3
Tender Offer
66.2%


Secom To Finally Buy Out Affiliate Secom Joshinetsu (4342)








Malaysia




Can-One Bhd (CAN MK) 
Manufacturing
0.1
MTO
15.8%


Can-One (CAN MK)? Yeoh Can Lah!



IHH Healthcare (IHH MK) 
Healthcare
N/A
N/A
N/A


IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): More Medicine For Mitsui?


Source: Smartkarma Insights






The above does not include BetMakers Technology Group (BET AU) lobbing a non-binding offer of A$4bn (A$1bn cash, $3bn scrip into BET) for Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU)'s wagering and media division, and Apollo's prior tilt - Tabcorp (TAH AU): Apollo Shows Its Hand.

Nor does the table include the rumoured merger between  Angang Steel Co Ltd (H) (347 HK) and Bengang Steel (000761 CH) - Amalgamated Steel: Merging Angang &amp; Bengang As, Bs, and Hs.



The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in May was ~41%, with a year-to-date average of ~31% (78 deals). This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2020 (158 deals) and 2019 (145 deals) of 31% and 31.5% respectively. 




Summary of News in May of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

No May update




Bingo Industries (BIN AU) 

1-May: Capital Group announced it has sold its entire 9.7% stake in Bingo Industries (BIN AU).




Crown Resorts (CWN AU) 

10-May: Crown Resorts: Blackstone &amp; Star Place Their Bets
17-May: Crown Says Blackstone's Bid Is Light. Undecided On Star
20-May: Crown Resorts Ltd: Blackstone Offer Rejected, Star Offer May Still Not Reflect True Forward Value




Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) 

No May update




Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 

27-May: Link Group (LNK AU): KKR Opens The Bidding For PEXA
31-May: Link Admin (LNK AU) Goes IPO Route For PEXA Afterall




Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU) 

2-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): More-Than-Double in Less than 2 Months After Apex Bump
6-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): Bidding War Continues as SS&amp;C Overbids for the 4th Time
14-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): +120% in ~2 Months but Bidding War Continues....




McPherson's Ltd (MCP AU) 

No May update




Mortgage Choice (MOC AU) 

26-Mau FIRB gives its approval



Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU)

14-May: Target's Statement and Bidder's Statements were published. Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU)'s Board has unanimously recommended shareholders to accept the Offer. 




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

12-May: Think Childcare (TNK AU) has agreed to extend the Exclusivity Period with Busy Bees to 31st May 2021 (vs. original deadline of 14th May). This is still a non-binding deal with an expected completion date to be in 1Q CY22. 




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

1-May: And so it goes - MAFM bumps its Offer for Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) to $1.26.
7-May: MAFM exercises a call option and acquires 16.2% of Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU).
28-May Roc bumps its Offer for Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) to $1.29/share.  And says it will overbid any MAFM counter! 




Vocus Communications (VOC AU) 

10-May: Vocus Comms (VOC AU): MIRA/Aware's Done Deal
19-May: Vocus Comms (VOC AU): MIRA/​Aware’s Scheme Doc Despatched. EGM On 22 June










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK) 

1-May: Beijing Digital (6188 HK): Offer Now Open. IFA Says Fair
20-May: Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK)'s MGO is now unconditional in all respects. 




China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK) 

28-May: China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK): Movement In The Works?




China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) 

7-May: In its monthly update regarding a potential Offer, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) says there is no update.




China Youzan Limited (8083 HK) 

10-May: China Youzan (8083 HK): Reality Check As Shares Rollover




Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) 

4-May: Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) will hold an EGM on the 26 May for shareholders to vote on the sale of the Hong Kong and Taiwan warehouse businesses to Kerry Holdings. 
26-May: At its SGM, Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale of its Hong Kong, Taiwan warehouse business to Kerry Holdings.




New Century REIT (1275 HK) 

No May update




Rivera Holdings (281 HK) 

No April update




Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK) 

3-May: Languang Justbon (2606 HK): Offer Now Open - For Up To Four Months










India


Comments (with links to insights)




Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) 

4-May: The Detailed Public Statement on Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) has been released. The Open Offer is scheduled tentatively to run from 18 June to 1 July, which means it is running Very Tight and the option is worth a bit less than I expected. But that just means there is more gamma. One could get big at the high Rs 1600s area. 




Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

4-May: Vedanta Now Caught Up With Peers - A Different Skew Ahead










Japan


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




BeNEXT Group (2154 JP) 
No May update



Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
No May update



Fuji Kosan Company (5009 JP) 
17-May:  Fuji Kosan Company (5009 JP) has responded to Aslead Strategic Value Fund's Tender Offer with its initial Target Opinion Statement which is "Opinion Withheld." This is because Fuji Kosan hasn't actually done anything yet - two weeks in. They have sent questions to Aslead, and Aslead has five business days to respond. This is slow-walking it. This tender offer is likely to be extended because of that.



Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) 

5-May: Hitachi Metals - Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?




Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

13-May: Honshu Chemical (4115) Shareholders Perhaps One Day From a Wrong Price Takeover
16-May:: Honshu Chemical Shareholders Get the Short End of the Stick As The Board Is Ex-Gourd




Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) 

6-May:  Invesco Office OPPOSES Starwood Hostile Offer and Gets a Distinctly Beige Knight
11-May:  Starwood Bumps Terms, Lowers Threshold on Invesco Office
13-May:  Invesco Office's Terrible, Horrible, No Good Very Bad Day... Changes Things
20-May:  Invesco Office's Beige Knight (Deemed Dirty Gray By Markets) Suddenly Looks Brighter and Whiter
23-May:  Starwood Responds to Invesco Office's White Knight Proposal
24-May: Starwood has extended their Tender Offer on Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) from the 24th of May to 15th of June after the close of the 24th. They did not raise the price. This is basically the equivalent of Starwood calling Invesco's bluff. They can extend again if they want but they are going to make Invesco come out. They can change price later if they think it necessary.



Japan Asia (3751 JP)
No May update



Sawada Holdings (8699 JP) 

9-May:  Sawada Selldown Was NOT Done - Shareholder Structure Looks Different Now
23-May: Sawada Is A Different Stock Now
31-May:  Be Careful of Expectations on Sawada (8699)




Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) 

14-May: Toshiba – Shareholder Returns Trump Weak Guidance
17-May: Toshiba Results &amp; Shareholder Return - Possibly Big Impact Buyback Coming











New Zealand


Comments 




Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ) 

No May update











Singapore


Comments (with links to announcements)




Procurri Corporation (PROC SP) 

3-May: The Partial Offer has not become unconditional in all respects on the Closing Date and has therefore lapsed










Thailand


Comments




Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) 

No May update




Vinythai Public Co (VNT TB) 

No May update






Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The merger of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsumotokiyoshi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2259:1" rel="noopener">Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cocokara-fine-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15447:1" rel="noopener">Cocokara Fine (3098 JP)</a> is just one symptom of the growing concentration of market share in the drugstore sector.</p><p>But the sector's leaders are no longer just battling for dominance in drugstore retailing; increasingly drugstores are evolving far behind this niche sector.</p><p>Drugstore retailing is growing faster than any sector other than e-commerce because drugstores are positioned to meet customer needs for well-being, health and, nowadays, a broad range of daily necessities including food, and so becoming ever more integrated into consumers’ daily shopping experience.</p><p>Their eclectic ranges also mean they perform well in the middle of natural disasters and crises of various forms and many chains have seen good results thanks to earthquakes, extreme weather and especially thanks to Covid, but this doesn’t fully explain the sector’s success.</p><p>Crises may have helped, but Japan’s top drugstores are today some of the country’s best retailers in their own right.</p><p>The following is a complete, in-depth review of the drugstore sector, including rankings, KPIs, and future trends on the sector and the potential winners.</p><p><strong>Jun Tsuruha, the current <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> CEO, was widely quoted last year as saying the sector would soon be dominated by just “four or five” major firms. This is far from fantasy, with Tsuruha, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a>, Matsukiyo-Cocokara, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmos-pharmaceutical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3797:1" rel="noopener">Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sugi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9255:1" rel="noopener">Sugi Holdings (7649 JP)</a> the most likely contenders.</strong></p>

The merger of Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP) and Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) is just one symptom of the growing concentration of market share in the drugstore sector.But the sector's leaders are no longer just battling for dominance in drugstore retailing; increasingly drugstores are evolving far behind this niche sector.Drugstore retailing is growing faster than any sector other than e-commerce because drugstores are positioned to meet customer needs for well-being, health and, nowadays, a broad range of daily necessities including food, and so becoming ever more integrated into consumers’ daily shopping experience.Their eclectic ranges also mean they perform well in the middle of natural disasters and crises of various forms and many chains have seen good results thanks to earthquakes, extreme weather and especially thanks to Covid, but this doesn’t fully explain the sector’s success.Crises may have helped, but Japan’s top drugstores are today some of the country’s best retailers in their own right.The following is a complete, in-depth review of the drugstore sector, including rankings, KPIs, and future trends on the sector and the potential winners.Jun Tsuruha, the current Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) CEO, was widely quoted last year as saying the sector would soon be dominated by just “four or five” major firms. This is far from fantasy, with Tsuruha, Welcia Holdings (3141 JP), Matsukiyo-Cocokara, Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP) and Sugi Holdings (7649 JP) the most likely contenders.

Japan Drugstores: Growing Leadership in Food, Household, Cosmetics – and the Odd Medicine Too

<p>After more than a year of negotiations and preparation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsumotokiyoshi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2259:1" rel="noopener">Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cocokara-fine-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15447:1" rel="noopener">Cocokara Fine (3098 JP)</a> finally confirmed their agreement to merge in October this year. The new company will be by far the largest in the drugstore sector.</p><p>A lot of work has been done already to consolidate operations and the aim is to complete integration by 2023. The combined company will target sales of ¥1.5 trillion by 2026.</p><p><strong>Private brands will be a crucial competitive weapon for the merged chain and also provide opportunities to offer wholesale toiletries and cosmetics floors at supermarkets.</strong></p><p>The growing competitiveness in the sector amidst increased saturation demands greater scale and will spur the leading players like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> to make further acquisitions to catch up with the new leader. </p>

After more than a year of negotiations and preparation, Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP) and Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) finally confirmed their agreement to merge in October this year. The new company will be by far the largest in the drugstore sector.A lot of work has been done already to consolidate operations and the aim is to complete integration by 2023. The combined company will target sales of ¥1.5 trillion by 2026.Private brands will be a crucial competitive weapon for the merged chain and also provide opportunities to offer wholesale toiletries and cosmetics floors at supermarkets.The growing competitiveness in the sector amidst increased saturation demands greater scale and will spur the leading players like Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) and Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) to make further acquisitions to catch up with the new leader. 

Matsukiyo-Cocokara Merger Heralds New Era for Drugstores

Travis Lundy

<p>As regular readers of the series on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsumotokiyoshi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2259:1" rel="noopener">Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cocokara-fine-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15447:1" rel="noopener">Cocokara Fine (3098 JP)</a> over the past nearly two years will know, I have expected Cocokara to benefit on the exchange ratio. </p><p>I thought the ratio that was reached - 1.7 Matsukiyo shares for every share of Cocokara - was a little light, and not just because the ratio announced was lower than the closing price pre-announcement. </p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="3" style="width: 76.3636px;"><h2>A History of Smartkarma Coverage on the Event</h2></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;"><h3><strong>Date</strong></h3></td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;"><h3><strong>Author</strong></h3></td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;"><h3><strong>Title</strong></h3></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">20 May 2019</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matsukiyo-and-cocokara-fine-tie-to-shake-up-drugstore-sector" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29890" rel="noopener">Matsukiyo and Cocokara Fine Tie to Shake up Drugstore Sector</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">4 June 2019</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cocokara-fine-cocokara" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30197" rel="noopener">Cocokara Fine は Cocokara いいね*</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">12 June 2019</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/drug-fuelled-marriages-and-macho-shachos-in-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30346" rel="noopener">Drug-Fuelled Marriages and Macho Shachos* in Japan</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">15 Aug 2019</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cocokara-3098-going-with-matsukiyo-3088-but-ratio-overextended" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31733" rel="noopener">Cocokara (3098) Going With MatsuKiyo (3088) But Ratio Overextended</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">16 Aug 2019</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matsukiyo-cocokara-merger-quantamental-analysis-shows-matsukiyo-in-fact-is-the-best-fit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31793" rel="noopener">Matsukiyo-Cocokara Merger: Quantamental Analysis Shows Matsukiyo in Fact IS the Best Fit</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">23 Aug 2019</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matsukiyo-no-loss-of-emphasis-on-profitability-looking-to-asean-for-growth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31947" rel="noopener">Matsukiyo: No Loss of Emphasis on Profitability, Looking to ASEAN for Growth</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">29 Sep 2019</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cocokara-and-matsukiyo-potential-competition-for-supermarkets-and-convenience-stores" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:32769" rel="noopener">Cocokara and Matsukiyo: Potential Competition for Supermarkets and Convenience Stores</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">14 Jan 2020</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gotta-go-with-cocokara" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35799" rel="noopener">Gotta Go With Cocokara</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">2 Feb 2020</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cocokara-matsukiyo-disappointing-but-not-disappointing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36256" rel="noopener">Cocokara/MatsuKiyo - Disappointing But Not Disappointing</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">13 Mar 2020</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japanese-drugstores-with-maturity-comes-marriage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37436" rel="noopener">Japanese Drugstores: With Maturity Comes Marriage</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">23 Sep 2020</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cocokara-matsukiyo-big-gains-since-delay-stay-long-both" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43539" rel="noopener">Cocokara/MatsuKiyo - Big Gains Since Delay, Stay Long Both</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">2 Feb 2021</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cocokara-matsukiyo-deal-finally-coming" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47717" rel="noopener">Cocokara/​MatsuKiyo Deal Finally Coming?</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">28 Feb 2021</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matsukiyococokara-co-the-merger" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48652" rel="noopener">MatsukiyoCocokara &amp; Co - The Merger</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.3636px;">1 Mar 2021</td>
<td style="width: 101.818px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> </td>
<td style="width: 502.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matsukiyococokara-merger-and-implied-forward-forecasts" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48679" rel="noopener">MatsuKiyoCocokara Merger and Implied Forward Forecasts</a> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><p>But it was a good deal for the combined business, and I came out bullish both before the announcement in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cocokara-matsukiyo-deal-finally-coming" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47717" rel="noopener">Cocokara/​MatsuKiyo Deal Finally Coming?</a> and afterwards in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matsukiyococokara-co-the-merger" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48652" rel="noopener">MatsukiyoCocokara &amp; Co - The Merger</a> and the accompanying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matsukiyococokara-merger-and-implied-forward-forecasts" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48679" rel="noopener">MatsuKiyoCocokara Merger and Implied Forward Forecasts</a>.</p><p>I had not seen comment of this deal, nor heard of any activism in the name, but was struck by the amount of volume which traded through terms after the announcement. </p><h3>Today There is NEW News of Activism in This Situation</h3><p>Today after the close, Singapore-based fund Hibiki Path Advisors <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210309006129/en/Hibiki-Path-Advisors-Opposes-to-the-Share-Exchange-Ratio-in-the-Merger-of-Matsumotokiyoshi-Holdings-Co.-Ltd.-and-cocokara-fine-Inc." target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that it opposed the merger ratio of this combination.  </p><p>This is worth looking at, so I do.</p>

As regular readers of the series on Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP) and Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) over the past nearly two years will know, I have expected Cocokara to benefit on the exchange ratio. I thought the ratio that was reached - 1.7 Matsukiyo shares for every share of Cocokara - was a little light, and not just because the ratio announced was lower than the closing price pre-announcement. 
A History of Smartkarma Coverage on the Event

Date
Author
Title


20 May 2019

Michael Causton 

Matsukiyo and Cocokara Fine Tie to Shake up Drugstore Sector 


4 June 2019

Travis Lundy 

Cocokara Fine は Cocokara いいね* 


12 June 2019

Michael Causton 

Drug-Fuelled Marriages and Macho Shachos* in Japan 


15 Aug 2019

Travis Lundy 

Cocokara (3098) Going With MatsuKiyo (3088) But Ratio Overextended 


16 Aug 2019

Mio Kato 

Matsukiyo-Cocokara Merger: Quantamental Analysis Shows Matsukiyo in Fact IS the Best Fit 


23 Aug 2019

Mio Kato 
Matsukiyo: No Loss of Emphasis on Profitability, Looking to ASEAN for Growth


29 Sep 2019

Michael Causton 

Cocokara and Matsukiyo: Potential Competition for Supermarkets and Convenience Stores 


14 Jan 2020

Travis Lundy 

Gotta Go With Cocokara 


2 Feb 2020

Travis Lundy 

Cocokara/MatsuKiyo - Disappointing But Not Disappointing 


13 Mar 2020

Michael Causton 

Japanese Drugstores: With Maturity Comes Marriage 


23 Sep 2020

Travis Lundy 

Cocokara/MatsuKiyo - Big Gains Since Delay, Stay Long Both 


2 Feb 2021

Travis Lundy 

Cocokara/​MatsuKiyo Deal Finally Coming? 


28 Feb 2021

Travis Lundy 

MatsukiyoCocokara &amp; Co - The Merger 


1 Mar 2021

Travis Lundy 

MatsuKiyoCocokara Merger and Implied Forward Forecasts 

But it was a good deal for the combined business, and I came out bullish both before the announcement in Cocokara/​MatsuKiyo Deal Finally Coming? and afterwards in MatsukiyoCocokara &amp; Co - The Merger and the accompanying MatsuKiyoCocokara Merger and Implied Forward Forecasts.I had not seen comment of this deal, nor heard of any activism in the name, but was struck by the amount of volume which traded through terms after the announcement. Today There is NEW News of Activism in This SituationToday after the close, Singapore-based fund Hibiki Path Advisors announced that it opposed the merger ratio of this combination.  This is worth looking at, so I do.

Matsukiyo-Cocokara Situation Gets Its Activist Noise Started

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>On April 26<sup>th</sup> 2019, an announcement was made of a possible merger between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsumotokiyoshi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2259:1" rel="noopener">Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP)</a> (<a target="_blank">Matsumoto</a>) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cocokara-fine-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15447:1" rel="noopener">Cocokara Fine (3098 JP)</a> (Cocokara).</p><p>As a part of this long running merger process, Matsumoto initially purchased 20.02% of Cocokara share capital for approximately ¥38bn in early 2020 to make Cocokara an affiliate of Matsumoto.</p><p>Towards the end of last month, Matsumoto and Cocokara announced the details of the management integration plan, including the medium term revenue and OP margin targets, expected synergies and the share exchange ratio for the merger.</p><p>The merger is expected to be effective from 1<sup>st</sup> October 2021, subjected to shareholder approval from both Matsumoto and Cocokara shareholders during their respective AGMs on 29<sup>th</sup> June 2021.</p><p>On 1<sup>st</sup> October 2021, Cocokara shareholders, excluding treasury shares and Matsumoto’s 20.02% ownership, will receive 1.7 Matsumoto shares per every share of Cocokara. As a result, a total of 40.795m shares will be added to Matsumoto’s share capital following the offer.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> has been following the developments of Matsumoto &amp; Cocokara merger from the start, and its highly recommended reading his insights to understand the background of the deal and trading opportunities from an event angle. Please find below the links to his latest insights, discussing the details of the recently announced management integration plan and his take on the fundamental valuation of the combined business. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matsukiyococokara-co-the-merger" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MatsukiyoCocokara &amp; Co - The Merger</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matsukiyococokara-merger-and-implied-forward-forecasts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MatsuKiyoCocokara Merger and Implied Forward Forecasts</a></p><p>This is the first in a series of insights, discussing our view on the combined entity’s fundamentals including revenue and OP drivers, likelihood of meeting medium term targets, the feasibility of extracting ¥30bn in synergies and the valuation.</p>

On April 26th 2019, an announcement was made of a possible merger between Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP) (Matsumoto) and Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) (Cocokara).As a part of this long running merger process, Matsumoto initially purchased 20.02% of Cocokara share capital for approximately ¥38bn in early 2020 to make Cocokara an affiliate of Matsumoto.Towards the end of last month, Matsumoto and Cocokara announced the details of the management integration plan, including the medium term revenue and OP margin targets, expected synergies and the share exchange ratio for the merger.The merger is expected to be effective from 1st October 2021, subjected to shareholder approval from both Matsumoto and Cocokara shareholders during their respective AGMs on 29th June 2021.On 1st October 2021, Cocokara shareholders, excluding treasury shares and Matsumoto’s 20.02% ownership, will receive 1.7 Matsumoto shares per every share of Cocokara. As a result, a total of 40.795m shares will be added to Matsumoto’s share capital following the offer.Travis Lundy has been following the developments of Matsumoto &amp; Cocokara merger from the start, and its highly recommended reading his insights to understand the background of the deal and trading opportunities from an event angle. Please find below the links to his latest insights, discussing the details of the recently announced management integration plan and his take on the fundamental valuation of the combined business. MatsukiyoCocokara &amp; Co - The Merger, MatsuKiyoCocokara Merger and Implied Forward ForecastsThis is the first in a series of insights, discussing our view on the combined entity’s fundamentals including revenue and OP drivers, likelihood of meeting medium term targets, the feasibility of extracting ¥30bn in synergies and the valuation.

A Quick Run Through Fundamentals Before The MatsumotoKiyoshi and Cocokara Fine Merger

Japan

cocokara fine Inc. is a holding company established through a merger of SEIJO Corporation and Segami Medics. The Company operates drug chain stores which sell medicines, health food, cosmetics, nursery items and daily necessity goods.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Cocokara Fine (3098 JP)

(Mostly) Asia M&A: May 2021 Roundup

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in May was ~41%, with a year-to-date average of ~31% (78 deals).

David Blennerhassett

Japan Drugstores: Growing Leadership in Food, Household, Cosmetics – and the Odd Medicine Too

The Japanese drugstore sector has seen a big merger but there will be more as the sector not only consolidates down to a few leaders but also...

Michael Causton

Matsukiyo-Cocokara Merger Heralds New Era for Drugstores

The merger of Matsukiyo and Cocokara will force further consolidation through M&A in the drugstore sector as regional powerhouses begin to clash as...

Michael Causton

Matsukiyo-Cocokara Situation Gets Its Activist Noise Started

MatsuKiyo-Cocokara was not unlikely to get an activist as Oasis is in the register above 5%. Now it has one. But time is short, and the argument...

Travis Lundy

A Quick Run Through Fundamentals Before The MatsumotoKiyoshi and Cocokara Fine Merger

Even though the ¥1,500bn revenue number looks rather daunting at first glance, if MatsukiyoCocokara is able to grow its store count at a compound...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)