China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong de facto central bank, HKMA (Hong Kong Monetary Authority), issued a strategic paper exploring the feasibility of issuing a retail-focused CBDC (central bank digital currency), an e-HKD, within 12 months. One of the major use cases of e-HKD is to link with e-CNY and facilitate cross-border payment or transfer. This has underscored China's ambition to take further step rolling out its most advanced digital currency among major economies.</li>
<li>Based on the latest quarterly statistics on mobile app usage, digital currency app has become a dominant factor in user engagement. Stock trading and crypto trading apps show much higher daily user visits and viewing time, compared with other financial management apps. The proliferation of CBDC (central bank digital currency), such as e-HKD and e-CNY, will likely accelerate user growth and engagement. The major crypto exchange <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase (COIN US)</a> has shown its registered users jumping 65% year-over-year in 21Q1 during the wider acceptancy of bitcoin. </li>
<li>We expect the majority of Hong Kong-based retail banks will likely roll out their own mobile apps with capability to transact on e-HKD and e-CNY in near term. The successful integration of this feature might likely impact user engagement, which might become a key KPI for banks' mobile app in our view. MAU/DAU (Month/Daily Active User) might become the differentiators for Hong Kong based retail banks such as  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia (23 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boc-hong-kong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:343:1" rel="noopener">BOC Hong Kong (BOC HK) (2388 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dah-sing-financial-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:589:1" rel="noopener">Dah Sing Financial (440 HK). </a>
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong de facto central bank, HKMA (Hong Kong Monetary Authority), issued a strategic paper exploring the feasibility of issuing a retail-focused CBDC (central bank digital currency), an e-HKD, within 12 months. One of the major use cases of e-HKD is to link with e-CNY and facilitate cross-border payment or transfer. This has underscored China's ambition to take further step rolling out its most advanced digital currency among major economies.
Based on the latest quarterly statistics on mobile app usage, digital currency app has become a dominant factor in user engagement. Stock trading and crypto trading apps show much higher daily user visits and viewing time, compared with other financial management apps. The proliferation of CBDC (central bank digital currency), such as e-HKD and e-CNY, will likely accelerate user growth and engagement. The major crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN US) has shown its registered users jumping 65% year-over-year in 21Q1 during the wider acceptancy of bitcoin. 
We expect the majority of Hong Kong-based retail banks will likely roll out their own mobile apps with capability to transact on e-HKD and e-CNY in near term. The successful integration of this feature might likely impact user engagement, which might become a key KPI for banks' mobile app in our view. MAU/DAU (Month/Daily Active User) might become the differentiators for Hong Kong based retail banks such as  HSBC Holdings (5 HK) , Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) , Bank of East Asia (23 HK) , BOC Hong Kong (BOC HK) (2388 HK) , Dah Sing Financial (440 HK). 



Hong Kong to Embrace Digital Currency E-HKD, Boosting Fintech Investment and Connectivity With E-CNY

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

More and more, companies are using cryptocurrency (especially Bitcoin) as part of their corporate treasury management strategies, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bitcoin-on-balance-sheets-indirect-crypto-exposure-considerations-for-crypto-leery-esg-investors" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52207" rel="noopener">Bitcoin on Balance Sheets: Indirect Crypto Exposure Considerations for Crypto-Leery ESG Investors</a>. That trend is behind the topic of this report.Greater mainstream corporate and institutional use of Bitcoin is driving the growth in demand for cryptocurrency custody services, and banks around the world are rushing to fill that demand. It is a logical and relatively safe foray into the cryptocurrency space, albeit not without some risk.For ESG investors wishing to avoid direct or indirect cryptocurrency exposure, perhaps due to their views on crypto's wretched Environmental footprint, the banks herein will have significant indirect crypto exposure. However, I personally find it hard to be categorically bearish on this theme.Whilst the theme in the first Insight (holding Bitcoin on balance sheets) represents real risk, this is different. It could be argued that crypto custody perpetuates <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bitcoin-usd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25895:1" rel="noopener">Bitcoin (XBT)</a>'s climate impacts, thus is a bad thing. Perhaps, from a purely idealistic ESG viewpoint, that is partially true.However, the connection from custody service to carbon emissions is so far removed, and the risks associated with entering the crypto custody space are so comparatively minimal, that the opinion on this theme should be "neutral" at worst, and definitely not across-the-board "negative."But really, that is for each investor to decide, because the crypto/ESG issue is highly subjective.

More and more, companies are using cryptocurrency (especially Bitcoin) as part of their corporate treasury management strategies, discussed in Bitcoin on Balance Sheets: Indirect Crypto Exposure Considerations for Crypto-Leery ESG Investors. That trend is behind the topic of this report.Greater mainstream corporate and institutional use of Bitcoin is driving the growth in demand for cryptocurrency custody services, and banks around the world are rushing to fill that demand. It is a logical and relatively safe foray into the cryptocurrency space, albeit not without some risk.For ESG investors wishing to avoid direct or indirect cryptocurrency exposure, perhaps due to their views on crypto's wretched Environmental footprint, the banks herein will have significant indirect crypto exposure. However, I personally find it hard to be categorically bearish on this theme.Whilst the theme in the first Insight (holding Bitcoin on balance sheets) represents real risk, this is different. It could be argued that crypto custody perpetuates Bitcoin (XBT)'s climate impacts, thus is a bad thing. Perhaps, from a purely idealistic ESG viewpoint, that is partially true.However, the connection from custody service to carbon emissions is so far removed, and the risks associated with entering the crypto custody space are so comparatively minimal, that the opinion on this theme should be "neutral" at worst, and definitely not across-the-board "negative."But really, that is for each investor to decide, because the crypto/ESG issue is highly subjective.

Banks on the Bitcoin Bandwagon: Cashing in Through Crypto Custody Services

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>While high volatility and the magic of Twitter may break cryptocurrency media coverage trends faster than they are identified, the exponentially growing volume of content on the topic has made text mining an increasingly robust tool to help quantify key themes in the space</li>
<li>Despite recent volatility, our data suggests sentiment on cryptocurrency institutional adoption continues to trend positively</li>
<li>We saw a +6x STDEV increase in coverage of ESG aspects of crypto and a +4x STDEV increase in coverage of crypto regulatory topics following the Elon Musk tweets of May 12-13 and China's crackdown; frequency of coverage of these topics has become the most dominant factor at -80% correlation with BTC recently </li>
<li>After surging in April on new ETF launches in Canada, sentiment on cryptocurrency ETFs/ETPs turned negative following "market disruption" warnings issued by Canadian ETF managers during last week's selloff</li>
<li>Sentiment on the cryptocurrency-as-store-of-value narrative took a dive in recent weeks, after hitting record high in April; nonetheless, the less-reliable defensive factors (store of value/inflation hedge) have been losing momentum in media coverage for some time, while a refocused view of cryptocurrency as a speculative vehicle is trending to new highs at +5x STDEVs</li>
<li>Though unadjusted sentiment data is extremely volatile, our daily tracking of Elon Musk coverage in a crypto context is back to a neutral reading for the first time since 5/12, having bottomed at -1.5x STDEVs earlier in the month</li>
<li>Net-net, while the data highlights elevated regulatory and ESG concerns, institutional adoption is likely to continue amid optimism around innovative carbon footprint reduction solutions for BTC; a reframing of the narrative away from defensive notions of "digital gold" would be a healthy development, and appears to be already underway</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities.</div>


While high volatility and the magic of Twitter may break cryptocurrency media coverage trends faster than they are identified, the exponentially growing volume of content on the topic has made text mining an increasingly robust tool to help quantify key themes in the space
Despite recent volatility, our data suggests sentiment on cryptocurrency institutional adoption continues to trend positively
We saw a +6x STDEV increase in coverage of ESG aspects of crypto and a +4x STDEV increase in coverage of crypto regulatory topics following the Elon Musk tweets of May 12-13 and China's crackdown; frequency of coverage of these topics has become the most dominant factor at -80% correlation with BTC recently 
After surging in April on new ETF launches in Canada, sentiment on cryptocurrency ETFs/ETPs turned negative following "market disruption" warnings issued by Canadian ETF managers during last week's selloff
Sentiment on the cryptocurrency-as-store-of-value narrative took a dive in recent weeks, after hitting record high in April; nonetheless, the less-reliable defensive factors (store of value/inflation hedge) have been losing momentum in media coverage for some time, while a refocused view of cryptocurrency as a speculative vehicle is trending to new highs at +5x STDEVs
Though unadjusted sentiment data is extremely volatile, our daily tracking of Elon Musk coverage in a crypto context is back to a neutral reading for the first time since 5/12, having bottomed at -1.5x STDEVs earlier in the month
Net-net, while the data highlights elevated regulatory and ESG concerns, institutional adoption is likely to continue amid optimism around innovative carbon footprint reduction solutions for BTC; a reframing of the narrative away from defensive notions of "digital gold" would be a healthy development, and appears to be already underway
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities.

TMI Snapshot:  Recent Crypto Media Coverage & Sentiment Trends Through the Lens of Text Mining

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hashkey-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40847:1" rel="noopener">HashKey (3887 HK)</a> confirmed its IPO price at HK$6.68, 3.9% below the top end. Despite favourable subscription and placement levels, this suggests some concerns. </li>
<li>Digital asset-related names, BTC and ETH, have retreated by an average of 11.6% last week, implying a challenging environment for the debut. </li>
<li>It is priced at 14.5x FY26 P/S, vs. 10.5x (peer average) and only a 23% discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinhood-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33532:1" rel="noopener">Robinhood Markets (HOOD US)</a>. It is only attractive at the low-end price.</li>
</ul>



HashKey (3887 HK) confirmed its IPO price at HK$6.68, 3.9% below the top end. Despite favourable subscription and placement levels, this suggests some concerns. 
Digital asset-related names, BTC and ETH, have retreated by an average of 11.6% last week, implying a challenging environment for the debut. 
It is priced at 14.5x FY26 P/S, vs. 10.5x (peer average) and only a 23% discount to Robinhood Markets (HOOD US). It is only attractive at the low-end price.


HashKey Holdings (3887 HK): A Challenging Debut Despite Oversubscription

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>At the top end of the price range (HK$6.95), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hashkey-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40847:1" rel="noopener">HashKey (3887 HK)</a>'s IPO equals a FY26F P/S of 14.9x, and this is not a particularly appealing level. </li>
<li>While it is the industry leader in the region and Hong Kong, it is expected to stay in the red for FY25-27, making a PER comparison meaningless. </li>
<li>Tiny public shareholder base, cryptocurrency volatilities, and the increasingly competitive environment heightened risks. Only a low-end IPO price, or 12.7x FY26F P/S, is attractive.</li>
</ul>


At the top end of the price range (HK$6.95), HashKey (3887 HK)'s IPO equals a FY26F P/S of 14.9x, and this is not a particularly appealing level. 
While it is the industry leader in the region and Hong Kong, it is expected to stay in the red for FY25-27, making a PER comparison meaningless. 
Tiny public shareholder base, cryptocurrency volatilities, and the increasingly competitive environment heightened risks. Only a low-end IPO price, or 12.7x FY26F P/S, is attractive.


Hashkey Holdings (3887 HK) IPO: Pricing Uncertainties Expensively

United States

Coinbase Global, Inc. provides financial solutions. The Company offers platform to buy and sell cryptocurrencies. Coinbase Global serves clients worldwide.

Price Gauge
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Coinbase Global (COIN US)

Hong Kong to Embrace Digital Currency E-HKD, Boosting Fintech Investment and Connectivity With E-CNY

Hong Kong Monetary Authority issued a strategic paper exploring the feasibility of issuing e-HKD within 12 months. Banking app MAU/DAU might become...

Roger Xie

Banks on the Bitcoin Bandwagon: Cashing in Through Crypto Custody Services

Bitcoin holdings by issuers and investors is driving crypto custody demand. Big banks are stepping. A big opportunity, but some ESG investors might...

Kyle Rudden

TMI Snapshot: Recent Crypto Media Coverage & Sentiment Trends Through the Lens of Text Mining

We text-mine media coverage of cryptocurrencies to quantify key sub-themes; institutional adoption sentiment has remained positive throughout the...

Elan Gore

HashKey Holdings (3887 HK): A Challenging Debut Despite Oversubscription

HashKey's IPO is priced at HK$6.68, 3.9% below the top end, signalling concerns despite strong demand. Digital assets were down 11.6% last week...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hashkey Holdings (3887 HK) IPO: Pricing Uncertainties Expensively

HashKey's IPO at HK$6.95 equals 14.9x FY26F P/S, unappealing due to a tiny public shareholder base, crypto volatilities, and a competitive...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Hong Kong to Embrace Digital Currency E-HKD, Boosting Fintech Investment and Connectivity With E-CNY

Hong Kong Monetary Authority issued a strategic paper exploring the feasibility of issuing e-HKD within 12 months. Banking app MAU/DAU might become...

Roger Xie

Banks on the Bitcoin Bandwagon: Cashing in Through Crypto Custody Services

Bitcoin holdings by issuers and investors is driving crypto custody demand. Big banks are stepping. A big opportunity, but some ESG investors might...

Kyle Rudden

TMI Snapshot: Recent Crypto Media Coverage & Sentiment Trends Through the Lens of Text Mining

We text-mine media coverage of cryptocurrencies to quantify key sub-themes; institutional adoption sentiment has remained positive throughout the...

Elan Gore

HashKey Holdings (3887 HK): A Challenging Debut Despite Oversubscription

​HashKey's IPO is priced at HK$6.68, 3.9% below the top end, signalling concerns despite strong demand. Digital assets were down 11.6% last week...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hashkey Holdings (3887 HK) IPO: Pricing Uncertainties Expensively

​HashKey's IPO at HK$6.95 equals 14.9x FY26F P/S, unappealing due to a tiny public shareholder base, crypto volatilities, and a competitive...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HashKey's IPO is priced at HK$6.68, 3.9% below the top end, signalling concerns despite strong demand. Digital assets were down 11.6% last week...

HashKey's IPO at HK$6.95 equals 14.9x FY26F P/S, unappealing due to a tiny public shareholder base, crypto volatilities, and a competitive...