Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 56th GST Council Meeting is currently underway in New Delhi, having commenced on September 3, 2025 at 11:00 AM and will continue until September 4, 2025.</li>
<li>These are supposed to be "next-generation GST reforms" with a promise of implementing reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers.</li>
<li>Negative FII Participation, Negative Price Action, Rich Multiples coupled with Negative Earnings Revisions argue for a bearish positioning going into the "G" Day - Day of GST Reform Announcements.</li>
</ul>


The 56th GST Council Meeting is currently underway in New Delhi, having commenced on September 3, 2025 at 11:00 AM and will continue until September 4, 2025.
These are supposed to be "next-generation GST reforms" with a promise of implementing reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers.
Negative FII Participation, Negative Price Action, Rich Multiples coupled with Negative Earnings Revisions argue for a bearish positioning going into the "G" Day - Day of GST Reform Announcements.


A Trader's Guide To "G" Day | Positioning For "Next-Generation GST Reforms"

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-June and/or end-March.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 20 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could have passive outflows in November.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-June and/or end-March.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 20 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could have passive outflows in November.


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Pakistan listed Consumer sector is currently trading at FY25 PE of 15.3x which is at a discount to its historical 10-year average of 23.1x.</li><li>Segment wise, consumer staple (FMCG) is trading at FY25 PE of 18.6x vs. 10-year average of 28.8x, pharmaceutical is trading at FY25 PE of 20.9x vs. 10-year average PE of 22.3x and consumer discretionary is trading at PE of FY25 9.3x vs. 10-year average PE of 18.3x.</li><li>Sector witnessed 5-year and 10-years sales/profit CAGR of 21%/32% and 14%/14% respectively.</li></ul>

Pakistan listed Consumer sector is currently trading at FY25 PE of 15.3x which is at a discount to its historical 10-year average of 23.1x.Segment wise, consumer staple (FMCG) is trading at FY25 PE of 18.6x vs. 10-year average of 28.8x, pharmaceutical is trading at FY25 PE of 20.9x vs. 10-year average PE of 22.3x and consumer discretionary is trading at PE of FY25 9.3x vs. 10-year average PE of 18.3x.Sector witnessed 5-year and 10-years sales/profit CAGR of 21%/32% and 14%/14% respectively.

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>The GST Council has simplified India’s indirect tax structure, cutting rates across daily essentials and consolidating slabs into 5% and 18%, with a new 40% bracket for sin goods.</li>
<li>
Consumption accounts for over 60% of GDP, and this tax reset is designed to revive household demand. We expect a 0.5-1% boost to GDP growth over the next 4–6 quarters.</li>
<li>
FMCG companies with price-sensitive portfolios, biscuits, hair oils, shampoo sachets, stand to gain most. Retailers and QSRs will ride the consumption uplift, while tobacco taxation remains unresolved beyond 2025.</li>
</ul>


The GST Council has simplified India’s indirect tax structure, cutting rates across daily essentials and consolidating slabs into 5% and 18%, with a new 40% bracket for sin goods.

Consumption accounts for over 60% of GDP, and this tax reset is designed to revive household demand. We expect a 0.5-1% boost to GDP growth over the next 4–6 quarters.

FMCG companies with price-sensitive portfolios, biscuits, hair oils, shampoo sachets, stand to gain most. Retailers and QSRs will ride the consumption uplift, while tobacco taxation remains unresolved beyond 2025.


GST 2.0: Will India’s Biggest Tax Reset Spark a Consumption Boom or Drive Margin Expansion?

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

<ul>
<li>Gem Aromatics, a specialty ingredients manufacturer, opened its INR 450 crore IPO (Aug 19–21) at a INR 309–INR 325 price band. </li>
<li>The company supplies sticky, specification-heavy ingredients (mint derivatives, aroma chemicals) to marquee FMCG and F&amp;F players—segments benefiting from “China+1” and premiumisation in India.</li>
<li>Quality of customers and process capabilities are positives, but concentration, raw-material cycles and a pending land litigation temper enthusiasm, execution on citral scale-up is key.</li>
</ul>


Gem Aromatics, a specialty ingredients manufacturer, opened its INR 450 crore IPO (Aug 19–21) at a INR 309–INR 325 price band. 
The company supplies sticky, specification-heavy ingredients (mint derivatives, aroma chemicals) to marquee FMCG and F&amp;F players—segments benefiting from “China+1” and premiumisation in India.
Quality of customers and process capabilities are positives, but concentration, raw-material cycles and a pending land litigation temper enthusiasm, execution on citral scale-up is key.


Gem Aromatics IPO Analysis: A Niche Aroma Player

India

Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd. manufactures consumer products in the oral care and body care area. The Company's products include soaps, cosmetics, toilet preparations, toothpaste, toothbrushes, shaving brushes, and glycerin.

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Colgate Palmolive (India) (CLGT IN)

A Trader's Guide To "G" Day | Positioning For "Next-Generation GST Reforms"

The 56th GST Council Meeting in New Delhi aims to bring next-generation reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers, but market indicators suggest a...

Pranav Bhavsar

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices in November. Passive trackers will need to...

Brian Freitas

Pakistan Listed Consumer Comp Sheet

Pakistan listed Consumer sector is currently trading at FY25 PE of 15.3x which is at a discount to its historical 10-year average of...

Topline Securities

GST 2.0: Will India’s Biggest Tax Reset Spark a Consumption Boom or Drive Margin Expansion?

India's GST Council cuts rates on essentials, simplifies tax structure to boost household demand and GDP growth, benefiting FMCG companies and...

Nimish Maheshwari

Gem Aromatics IPO Analysis: A Niche Aroma Player

Gem Aromatics opens INR 450 crore IPO, supplying specialty ingredients to FMCG and F&F players, facing challenges with concentration and raw...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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A Trader's Guide To "G" Day | Positioning For "Next-Generation GST Reforms"

​The 56th GST Council Meeting in New Delhi aims to bring next-generation reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers, but market indicators suggest a...

Pranav Bhavsar

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices in November. Passive trackers will need to...

Brian Freitas

Pakistan Listed Consumer Comp Sheet

Pakistan listed Consumer sector is currently trading at FY25 PE of 15.3x which is at a discount to its historical 10-year average of...

Topline Securities

GST 2.0: Will India’s Biggest Tax Reset Spark a Consumption Boom or Drive Margin Expansion?

​India's GST Council cuts rates on essentials, simplifies tax structure to boost household demand and GDP growth, benefiting FMCG companies and...

Nimish Maheshwari

Gem Aromatics IPO Analysis: A Niche Aroma Player

​Gem Aromatics opens INR 450 crore IPO, supplying specialty ingredients to FMCG and F&F players, facing challenges with concentration and raw...

Sudarshan Bhandari

The 56th GST Council Meeting in New Delhi aims to bring next-generation reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers, but market indicators suggest a...

India's GST Council cuts rates on essentials, simplifies tax structure to boost household demand and GDP growth, benefiting FMCG companies and...

Gem Aromatics opens INR 450 crore IPO, supplying specialty ingredients to FMCG and F&F players, facing challenges with concentration and raw...