Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company: Chola’s Q1FY25 earnings were marginally lower than our estimates with strong AUM growth (+35% YoY) and improving opex intensity (3.1% of AUM), offset by higher credit costs (155bps)</li><li>Disbursement growth remained steady (+22% YoY), driven by LAP and CSEL segments, with subdued disbursals in vehicle finance (+13% YoY)</li><li>Credit costs were elevated, stemming from vehicle finance and the CSEL segments, with normalisation in LAP and HL portfolios</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company: Chola’s Q1FY25 earnings were marginally lower than our estimates with strong AUM growth (+35% YoY) and improving opex intensity (3.1% of AUM), offset by higher credit costs (155bps)Disbursement growth remained steady (+22% YoY), driven by LAP and CSEL segments, with subdued disbursals in vehicle finance (+13% YoY)Credit costs were elevated, stemming from vehicle finance and the CSEL segments, with normalisation in LAP and HL portfoliosContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company, Colgate Palmolive

HSIE Results Daily: Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,286/1,281 points and the resistance at 1,301/1,309 points (10-day EMA).</li><li>We maintain our recommendation that investors wait to do speculative buying when there is a new buy signal.</li><li>In-line readings would increase the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates at its September meeting.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,286/1,281 points and the resistance at 1,301/1,309 points (10-day EMA).We maintain our recommendation that investors wait to do speculative buying when there is a new buy signal.In-line readings would increase the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates at its September meeting.

Keep a Close Watch on US Inflation and Thai Corporate Earnings

<ul><li>We expect our consumer coverage to report revenue growth in mid-single-digits (6% yoy), driven by volume growth.</li><li>At an aggregate level, we expect revenue/EBITDA/net income growth of 5.6/6.3/6.7% respectively in 1QFY25.</li><li>Our ground checks suggest that the demand environment for FMCG products has started gradually improving because of (1) improving volume growth trends in rural areas on the back of a favourable base and the reducing impact of inflation</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect our consumer coverage to report revenue growth in mid-single-digits (6% yoy), driven by volume growth.At an aggregate level, we expect revenue/EBITDA/net income growth of 5.6/6.3/6.7% respectively in 1QFY25.Our ground checks suggest that the demand environment for FMCG products has started gradually improving because of (1) improving volume growth trends in rural areas on the back of a favourable base and the reducing impact of inflationContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG, QSR & Alco Bev (Q1FY25 Results Preview): On an improving trajectory

India

Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd. manufactures consumer products in the oral care and body care area. The Company's products include soaps, cosmetics, toilet preparations, toothpaste, toothbrushes, shaving brushes, and glycerin.

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Colgate Palmolive (India) (CLGT IN)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company, Colgate Palmolive

Chola’s Q1FY25 earnings were marginally lower than our estimates with strong AUM growth (+35% YoY) and improving opex intensity (3.1% of AUM),...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company

Chola’s Q1FY25 earnings were marginally lower than our estimates with strong AUM growth (+35% YoY) and improving opex intensity (3.1% of AUM),...

HDFC Securities

Keep a Close Watch on US Inflation and Thai Corporate Earnings

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,286/1,281 points and the resistance at 1,301/1,309 points (10-day...

Krungthai XSpring

FMCG, QSR & Alco Bev (Q1FY25 Results Preview): On an improving trajectory

We expect our consumer coverage to report revenue growth in mid-single-digits (6% yoy), driven by volume growth. At an aggregate level, we expect...

HDFC Securities

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