External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Colgate Palmolive: Colgate’s domestic revenue grew 5% YoY (four-year CAGR sustaining at 4%), led by high single-digit growth in toothpaste (Dabur clocked c.5%)</li><li>Volumes arrested a declining trend of the previous four quarters and were flat (HSIE 1%) with c.1% four-year CAGR</li><li>GM continued to expand sequentially (100bps) to 66.9%, better than our expectation of 66%</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Colgate Palmolive: Colgate’s domestic revenue grew 5% YoY (four-year CAGR sustaining at 4%), led by high single-digit growth in toothpaste (Dabur clocked c.5%)Volumes arrested a declining trend of the previous four quarters and were flat (HSIE 1%) with c.1% four-year CAGRGM continued to expand sequentially (100bps) to 66.9%, better than our expectation of 66%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Colgate Palmolive, Deepak Nitrite, Alkyl Amines

<ul><li>Expect improvement in volume CAGR, revenue to grow by 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q4FY23 (vs 12/8% in Q4FY22 and 8/10% in Q3FY23)</li><li>Companies have started seeing a gradual recovery in demand, however, it still falls short of a full recovery</li><li>Urban markets returned to positive volume growth while rural markets still remain muted</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Expect improvement in volume CAGR, revenue to grow by 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q4FY23 (vs 12/8% in Q4FY22 and 8/10% in Q3FY23)Companies have started seeing a gradual recovery in demand, however, it still falls short of a full recoveryUrban markets returned to positive volume growth while rural markets still remain mutedContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev: Respite in demand and margins pressure

<ul><li>Maruti Suzuki: Maruti’s Q3 PAT, at INR 23.5bn, came in above our estimate of INR 18bn, led by better-than-expected ASP and higher other income</li><li>EBITDA margin improvement QoQ came in despite the 10% decline in volume and higher sales promotion expenses, which is commendable, in our view</li><li>MSIL remains committed on regaining leadership position in SUVs, which is evident in its model-onslaught in this fiscal: post the mid-cycle upgrades of Ertiga and XL6 (Q1), new Brezza and the recently-launched Grand Vitara (Q2), it has now commenced bookings for Jimny (received 9k bookings) and Fronx (2.5k bookings)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maruti Suzuki: Maruti’s Q3 PAT, at INR 23.5bn, came in above our estimate of INR 18bn, led by better-than-expected ASP and higher other incomeEBITDA margin improvement QoQ came in despite the 10% decline in volume and higher sales promotion expenses, which is commendable, in our viewMSIL remains committed on regaining leadership position in SUVs, which is evident in its model-onslaught in this fiscal: post the mid-cycle upgrades of Ertiga and XL6 (Q1), new Brezza and the recently-launched Grand Vitara (Q2), it has now commenced bookings for Jimny (received 9k bookings) and Fronx (2.5k bookings)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Maruti Suzuki, SBI Cards and Payment Services

<ul><li>Expect similar volume CAGR, revenue to grow by 9/11% on YoY/three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/11% on YoY/three-year CAGR in revenue in Q3FY23 (vs 17/10% in Q3FY22 and 8/11% in Q2FY23)</li><li>Rural demand remained tepid while some green shoots were visible at the end of the quarter</li><li>Urban demand too was not different from that seen in Q2</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Expect similar volume CAGR, revenue to grow by 9/11% on YoY/three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/11% on YoY/three-year CAGR in revenue in Q3FY23 (vs 17/10% in Q3FY22 and 8/11% in Q2FY23)Rural demand remained tepid while some green shoots were visible at the end of the quarterUrban demand too was not different from that seen in Q2Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q3FY23 Results Preview): Unchanged demand trend, some respite in margins

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>Despite a strong surge in sales in the Sept. quarter, most Indian consumer companies reported weak profit growth given negative impact of inflation, currency and interest rates.</li>
<li>Inflationary pressures from higher raw material costs, rise in fuel costs and higher wages have affected volume growth as companies attempted to effect price hikes to mitigate margin impact.</li>
<li>Leading FMCG companies have temporarily cut back on marketing spend during the quarter to offset the impact of cost pressures on operating margins.</li>
</ul>


Despite a strong surge in sales in the Sept. quarter, most Indian consumer companies reported weak profit growth given negative impact of inflation, currency and interest rates.
Inflationary pressures from higher raw material costs, rise in fuel costs and higher wages have affected volume growth as companies attempted to effect price hikes to mitigate margin impact.
Leading FMCG companies have temporarily cut back on marketing spend during the quarter to offset the impact of cost pressures on operating margins.


Inflation Bites: India Consumer Sector - Rising Revenues, Dipping Margins in Sept. Quarter

India

Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd. manufactures consumer products in the oral care and body care area. The Company's products include soaps, cosmetics, toilet preparations, toothpaste, toothbrushes, shaving brushes, and glycerin.

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Colgate Palmolive (India) (CLGT IN)

HSIE Results Daily: Colgate Palmolive, Deepak Nitrite, Alkyl Amines

Colgate Palmolive: Colgate’s domestic revenue grew 5% YoY (four-year CAGR sustaining at 4%), led by high single-digit growth in toothpaste (Dabur...

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev: Respite in demand and margins pressure

Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q4FY23 (vs 12/8% in Q4FY22 and 8/10% in Q3FY23)

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Maruti Suzuki, SBI Cards and Payment Services

Maruti Suzuki: Maruti’s Q3 PAT, at INR 23.5bn, came in above our estimate of INR 18bn, led by better-than-expected ASP and higher other income

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q3FY23 Results Preview): Unchanged demand trend, some respite in margins

Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/11% on YoY/three-year CAGR in revenue in Q3FY23 (vs 17/10% in Q3FY22 and 8/11% in...

HDFC Securities

Inflation Bites: India Consumer Sector - Rising Revenues, Dipping Margins in Sept. Quarter

Cost pressures could continue to impact volume and margins for most India consumer stocks. Impact of Inflation, currency and interest rates are key...

Devi Subhakesan

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