Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Singapore Telecommunications / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.</li>
<li>We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level</li>
</ul>


Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.
We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).
While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level


MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 8/9%: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 8/9% YoY in revenue/EBITDA in Q4FY22 (vs 24/22% in Q4FY21 and 16/12% in Q3FY22)</li><li>Inflationary pressure continued to disrupt demand in both urban and rural India; however, rural volume growth was weaker than urban</li><li>Volume growth has been decelerating even on 2/3 year CAGR (demand pressure, grammage reduction); however, downtrading was not witnessed</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 8/9%: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 8/9% YoY in revenue/EBITDA in Q4FY22 (vs 24/22% in Q4FY21 and 16/12% in Q3FY22)Inflationary pressure continued to disrupt demand in both urban and rural India; however, rural volume growth was weaker than urbanVolume growth has been decelerating even on 2/3 year CAGR (demand pressure, grammage reduction); however, downtrading was not witnessedContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev: Rural Demand Struggles; Margin Pressures Continue

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<p> In this Smartkarma Original Series report, we scan the Asia Direct-to-Consumer (D2C) channel space for Consumer Packaged Goods to identify the verticals that have gained wider consumer acceptance and witnessed steady growth in each of the key geographies - China, South East Asia, and India. We look into the factors that enabled notable D2C brands in the Beauty, Fashion, and Food verticals to make steady inroads and disrupt the sector within a short period. We discuss the D2C ecosystem, brand journey and key challenges. 2020 has been the year that fast-tracked online retail penetration in most parts of Asia. In this context, we profile D2C brands with either a dominant segment presence or unique business model to gain a deeper understanding of the Asia D2C landscape.</p>
<p><strong>What is original about this report?</strong> Insights and takeaways for Investors in Asia D2C branded players in consumer space based on our comparative study of the segment across three key geographies - China, SE Asia, and India. China's early march in digital transformation and D2C market space offers valuable lessons to players/investors in early-stage digital markets like India which is witnessing aggressive traction in this space. Insights discussed in the report have mostly been weaned from the startup experiences shared by founders of reputed D2C brands. The report also analyses investment outlook for select digitally native D2C brands with lead segment presence and/or unique business models.</p>

 In this Smartkarma Original Series report, we scan the Asia Direct-to-Consumer (D2C) channel space for Consumer Packaged Goods to identify the verticals that have gained wider consumer acceptance and witnessed steady growth in each of the key geographies - China, South East Asia, and India. We look into the factors that enabled notable D2C brands in the Beauty, Fashion, and Food verticals to make steady inroads and disrupt the sector within a short period. We discuss the D2C ecosystem, brand journey and key challenges. 2020 has been the year that fast-tracked online retail penetration in most parts of Asia. In this context, we profile D2C brands with either a dominant segment presence or unique business model to gain a deeper understanding of the Asia D2C landscape.
What is original about this report? Insights and takeaways for Investors in Asia D2C branded players in consumer space based on our comparative study of the segment across three key geographies - China, SE Asia, and India. China's early march in digital transformation and D2C market space offers valuable lessons to players/investors in early-stage digital markets like India which is witnessing aggressive traction in this space. Insights discussed in the report have mostly been weaned from the startup experiences shared by founders of reputed D2C brands. The report also analyses investment outlook for select digitally native D2C brands with lead segment presence and/or unique business models.

D2C Brands in Asia: Disruption Potential in Consumer Space

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps, EMAlpha

Pankaj Sharma

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps

<p>Rural is likely to be an interesting investment theme in Indian markets because of expectations that the Govt will focus more on agriculture. There are several options to play this but if we apply filters like recent stock performance, market positioning and relative contribution of rural and its importance as a stock driver, we think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2391" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1">Hero Motocorp Ltd (HMCL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/242" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:242:1">Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12089" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12089:1">Dhanuka Agritech Ltd (DAGRI IN)</a> are among more interesting names.</p>

Rural is likely to be an interesting investment theme in Indian markets because of expectations that the Govt will focus more on agriculture. There are several options to play this but if we apply filters like recent stock performance, market positioning and relative contribution of rural and its importance as a stock driver, we think Hero Motocorp Ltd (HMCL IN), Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN) and Dhanuka Agritech Ltd (DAGRI IN) are among more interesting names.

India: Three Stocks to Play the Rural Theme

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

<h2>Headlines</h2><ul>
<li>Laundry care records current value growth of 9% in 2016 to reach INR205 billion in 2016</li>
<li>With increasing awareness, consumers are shifting from bar to powder detergents driving growth</li>
<li>The average unit price increases by 5% in current value terms in 2016 due to increasing inflation</li>
<li>Hindustan Unilever Ltd leads laundry care with a value share of 37% in 2016</li>
<li>Laundry care in India is expected to record a value CAGR of 2% at constant 2016 prices during the forecast period</li>
</ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/022/657/original/market%20size%20laundry%20care%20india%2011-16.png?1489628435" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="22657"></figure><h2>Competitive Landscape</h2><ul><li>…</li></ul>

Headlines
Laundry care records current value growth of 9% in 2016 to reach INR205 billion in 2016
With increasing awareness, consumers are shifting from bar to powder detergents driving growth
The average unit price increases by 5% in current value terms in 2016 due to increasing inflation
Hindustan Unilever Ltd leads laundry care with a value share of 37% in 2016
Laundry care in India is expected to record a value CAGR of 2% at constant 2016 prices during the forecast period
Competitive Landscape…

India

Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd. manufactures consumer products in the oral care and body care area. The Company's products include soaps, cosmetics, toilet preparations, toothpaste, toothbrushes, shaving brushes, and glycerin.

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Colgate Palmolive (India) (CLGT IN)

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

We are testing the March lows in several global indexes, including the MSCI $ACWI, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and EM $EEM. While this is a logical spot for...

Vermilion Research

FMCG & Alco Bev: Rural Demand Struggles; Margin Pressures Continue

Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 8/9%: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 8/9% YoY in revenue/EBITDA in Q4FY22...

HDFC Securities

D2C Brands in Asia: Disruption Potential in Consumer Space

Insights for investors based on comparative study of Asia D2C landscape across India, SE Asia & China.Analysis of relative segment attractiveness....

Devi Subhakesan

India: Three Stocks to Play the Rural Theme

Rural is likely to be an interesting investment theme in Indian markets because of expectations that the Govt will focus more on agriculture. There...

Pankaj Sharma

Sector Capsule: Laundry Care in India

Headlines Laundry care records current value growth of 9% in 2016 to reach INR205 billion in 2016 With increasing awareness, consumers are shifting...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

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