Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways down, with the support at 1,363/1,354 points (1/2 and 1/3 of the Fibonacci range of 1,325-1,404 points) and the resistance at 1,375/1,380 points (50-day EMA/75-day EMA).</li><li>Overall, the index is still moving in an upward trend toward testing the resistance of the downchannel range at 1,394/1,404 points.</li><li>Today, there is a chance that the index will weaken and test the support; there would be a new sell signal if it sinks below the key support at 1,350 points.</li></ul>

Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways down, with the support at 1,363/1,354 points (1/2 and 1/3 of the Fibonacci range of 1,325-1,404 points) and the resistance at 1,375/1,380 points (50-day EMA/75-day EMA).Overall, the index is still moving in an upward trend toward testing the resistance of the downchannel range at 1,394/1,404 points.Today, there is a chance that the index will weaken and test the support; there would be a new sell signal if it sinks below the key support at 1,350 points.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The bank runs in the global banking system will continue to pose downside risk to global banking stocks, including Thai banks, until the Fed and the ECB can come up with systematic solutions, and a worsening of the situation would lead to huge unrealized losses from investment in government bonds.</li><li>A temporary full-deposit guarantee is another potential way to address the banking crisis; note that the US guarantees around USD10trn out of total deposits of USD18trn, and the FDIC incurs costs of just USD100bn.</li><li>The longer the banking crisis is drawn-out, the greater the risks related to a credit crunch and the higher the chance of a global economic recession.</li></ul>

The bank runs in the global banking system will continue to pose downside risk to global banking stocks, including Thai banks, until the Fed and the ECB can come up with systematic solutions, and a worsening of the situation would lead to huge unrealized losses from investment in government bonds.A temporary full-deposit guarantee is another potential way to address the banking crisis; note that the US guarantees around USD10trn out of total deposits of USD18trn, and the FDIC incurs costs of just USD100bn.The longer the banking crisis is drawn-out, the greater the risks related to a credit crunch and the higher the chance of a global economic recession.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move in the narrow range of 1,655-1,665 points due to the concern that the Fed will hike the fed funds rate further following the reports of strong US economic figures.</li><li>However, private consumption held up well (+5.70% YoY), especially expenditures in the hotel and restaurant sector (+92.80% YoY), which is expected to create positive sentiment for stocks in the retail and food sectors.</li><li>The agency now expects Thailand's 2023E GDP growth to return to the pre-COVID-19 level at +3.7% YoY.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move in the narrow range of 1,655-1,665 points due to the concern that the Fed will hike the fed funds rate further following the reports of strong US economic figures.However, private consumption held up well (+5.70% YoY), especially expenditures in the hotel and restaurant sector (+92.80% YoY), which is expected to create positive sentiment for stocks in the retail and food sectors.The agency now expects Thailand's 2023E GDP growth to return to the pre-COVID-19 level at +3.7% YoY.

Germany

Commerzbank AG attracts deposits and offers retail and commercial banking services.  The Bank offers mortgage loans, securities brokerage and asset management services, private banking, foreign exchange, and treasury services worldwide.

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Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)

Today's Dominant Ideas

Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways down, with the support at 1,363/1,354 points (1/2 and 1/3 of the Fibonacci range of...

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report: Bank Runs

The longer the banking crisis is drawn-out, the greater the risks related to a credit crunch and the higher the chance of a global economic recession.

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom

The SET Index is expected to move in the narrow range of 1,655-1,665 points due to the concern that the Fed will hike the fed funds rate further...

Krungthai XSpring

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