European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The German Government is planning to reduce its stake in private companies (100+), which is reviving the talk of a merger between Commerzbank (15.75% owned by Germany) and Deutsche Bank.</li>
<li>In case of a (logical) all-share merger, the German Government would just exchange a 15.75% stake in Commerzbank for a smaller one in the New Deutsche Bank (estimated ~5.75%).</li>
<li>The most likely outcome is an accelerated book build among institutional investors (as the British Government has done with Natwest, formerly RBS, in the past), in my view.</li>
</ul>


The German Government is planning to reduce its stake in private companies (100+), which is reviving the talk of a merger between Commerzbank (15.75% owned by Germany) and Deutsche Bank.
In case of a (logical) all-share merger, the German Government would just exchange a 15.75% stake in Commerzbank for a smaller one in the New Deutsche Bank (estimated ~5.75%).
The most likely outcome is an accelerated book build among institutional investors (as the British Government has done with Natwest, formerly RBS, in the past), in my view.


Deutsche Bank/Commerzbank: Quick Take on Merger Talks

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18</li>
<li>Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. </li>
<li>So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18
Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. 
So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life (8750 JP)</a> has the wherewithal, and probably the synergies to make a bump for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a> work. M3 is clearly not in the driver's seat.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-united-network-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12620:1" rel="noopener">China United Network (600050 CH)</a> is, for all intent and purpose, a pseudo-A to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom (762 HK)</a>. Go long Unicom, short United due to Unicom's significantly cheaper valuation.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2178:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK)</a> has had a stonking run since its rights issue. Look to unwind this set-up and take the other side: short Expressway, long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zheshang-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29981:1" rel="noopener">Zheshang Securities (601878 CH)</a>.
</li>
</ul>



Dai Ichi Life (8750 JP) has the wherewithal, and probably the synergies to make a bump for Benefit One (2412 JP) work. M3 is clearly not in the driver's seat.

China United Network (600050 CH) is, for all intent and purpose, a pseudo-A to China Unicom (762 HK). Go long Unicom, short United due to Unicom's significantly cheaper valuation.

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK) has had a stonking run since its rights issue. Look to unwind this set-up and take the other side: short Expressway, long Zheshang Securities (601878 CH).



Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, China Unicom, Zhejiang Expressway/ Zheshang Sec, Hollysys

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.</li>
<li>In the March 2023 review, I do not see any changes for the DAX index although a couple names are close to the border.</li>
<li>As it stands, I currently expect two more changes between MDAX and SDAX and one more ADD/DEL for the SDAX index based on the latest available data.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.
In the March 2023 review, I do not see any changes for the DAX index although a couple names are close to the border.
As it stands, I currently expect two more changes between MDAX and SDAX and one more ADD/DEL for the SDAX index based on the latest available data.


Quiddity Leaderboard for DAX Mar 23: Linde DEL Triggers US$2.7bn Reverse Funding Flows

Germany

Commerzbank AG attracts deposits and offers retail and commercial banking services.  The Bank offers mortgage loans, securities brokerage and asset management services, private banking, foreign exchange, and treasury services worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)

Deutsche Bank/Commerzbank: Quick Take on Merger Talks

German Government plans to reduce stake in private companies, which has helped revive merger talks between Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight EURO $STOXX 50 $FEZ; Supports Holding on MSCI $ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM. Latest 4-6% pullback remains healthy...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, China Unicom, Zhejiang Expressway/ Zheshang Sec, Hollysys

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard for DAX Mar 23: Linde DEL Triggers US$2.7bn Reverse Funding Flows

The largest DAX member Linde AG (LIN GR) is expected to get deleted in February 2023 triggering extraordinary index changes and US$2.7bn in reverse...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Deutsche Bank/Commerzbank: Quick Take on Merger Talks

​German Government plans to reduce stake in private companies, which has helped revive merger talks between Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight EURO $STOXX 50 $FEZ; Supports Holding on MSCI $ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM. Latest 4-6% pullback remains healthy...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, China Unicom, Zhejiang Expressway/ Zheshang Sec, Hollysys

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard for DAX Mar 23: Linde DEL Triggers US$2.7bn Reverse Funding Flows

The largest DAX member Linde AG (LIN GR) is expected to get deleted in February 2023 triggering extraordinary index changes and US$2.7bn in reverse...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

German Government plans to reduce stake in private companies, which has helped revive merger talks between Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank.