Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since January 2023 we have anticipated 4165-4200 would cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.</li>
<li>So far there has not been much traction above 4200. Obvious problem is weak breadth, but this does not <em>have to</em> end badly if large-caps pause, and capital disperses elsewhere</li>
<li>To that end, we're watching the Russell 2000 (IWM) which is testing 2.5-month resistance at $180; a break above resistance would signal improving breadth and would be a positive development</li>
</ul>


Since January 2023 we have anticipated 4165-4200 would cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.
So far there has not been much traction above 4200. Obvious problem is weak breadth, but this does not have to end badly if large-caps pause, and capital disperses elsewhere
To that end, we're watching the Russell 2000 (IWM) which is testing 2.5-month resistance at $180; a break above resistance would signal improving breadth and would be a positive development


Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem?

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Sector allocations in 2023 have been highlighted by big money rapidly leaving the “inflation trade” of 2022 (dominated by all things oil and gas, coal, ag commodities, etc.) and plowing money in full force to the “disinflation trade” headlined by sectors exposed to technology, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, automation/robotics, and software.</li>
<li>In fact, the following sector ETFs are making new 6-month relative strength line highs this week compared to S&amp;P 500 index and are quickly emerging as new market leadership groups:</li>
<li>Technology: BOTZ, TECL, IXN, IYW, XLK, IGV, VGT; Homebuilders: NAIL, XHB, XL</li>
</ul>


Sector allocations in 2023 have been highlighted by big money rapidly leaving the “inflation trade” of 2022 (dominated by all things oil and gas, coal, ag commodities, etc.) and plowing money in full force to the “disinflation trade” headlined by sectors exposed to technology, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, automation/robotics, and software.
In fact, the following sector ETFs are making new 6-month relative strength line highs this week compared to S&amp;P 500 index and are quickly emerging as new market leadership groups:
Technology: BOTZ, TECL, IXN, IYW, XLK, IGV, VGT; Homebuilders: NAIL, XHB, XL


Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund

<ul>
<li>In our January 10th Compass, we discussed a break above 3910 on SPX would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area.</li>
<li>After being underweight Communications (XLC) since Nov 2021, sidestepping 20% underperformance vs. SPX, we now see signs of price and RS bottoms, and we are upgrading to market weight. Buy.</li>
</ul>


In our January 10th Compass, we discussed a break above 3910 on SPX would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range.
We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area.
After being underweight Communications (XLC) since Nov 2021, sidestepping 20% underperformance vs. SPX, we now see signs of price and RS bottoms, and we are upgrading to market weight. Buy.


Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples - Both to Market Weight; US Dollar Major Top

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have been discussing since our Sept. 27 Compass report has begun.</li>
<li>Over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and S&amp;P 600 Small Caps) display bullish 2+ month inflections.</li>
<li>As referenced last week, we expect the aforementioned indexes to rally to their 200-day MAs; longer-term, this is still a bear market until they can break above their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have been discussing since our Sept. 27 Compass report has begun.
Over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and S&amp;P 600 Small Caps) display bullish 2+ month inflections.
As referenced last week, we expect the aforementioned indexes to rally to their 200-day MAs; longer-term, this is still a bear market until they can break above their 200-day MAs.


Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>While we are intermediate term cautious, our working hypothesis for the near-term outlook is a choppy market, but the S&amp;P 500 is unlikely to breach its 2022 lows.  </li>
<li>It is with this chaotic environment in mind that we suggest pairs trading as a more risk-controlled way of finding better returns.</li>
<li>We will update all of the pairs periodically. Feedback and expressions of interest are appreciated so we know how much resources to devote to the regular update to this strategy.</li>
</ul>


While we are intermediate term cautious, our working hypothesis for the near-term outlook is a choppy market, but the S&amp;P 500 is unlikely to breach its 2022 lows.  
It is with this chaotic environment in mind that we suggest pairs trading as a more risk-controlled way of finding better returns.
We will update all of the pairs periodically. Feedback and expressions of interest are appreciated so we know how much resources to devote to the regular update to this strategy.


Achieving Stable Alpha in a Chaotic Bear Market

United States

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. It tracks the Communication Services Select Sector Index. The fund will invest in companies from the following industries: diversified telecommunication services; wireless telecommunication services; media; entertainment; and interactive media & services.

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US)

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem?

So far there has been little traction above $SPX 4200. Weak breadth remains an obvious problem. We are watching the $IWM which is testing $180; a...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 5/22

Sector allocations in 2023 have been highlighted by big money rapidly leaving the “inflation trade” of 2022 (dominated by all things oil and gas,...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples - Both to Market Weight; US Dollar Major Top

We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the $SPX 4100-4165 area. Upgrading...

Vermilion Research

Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

The bear market rally we have been discussing since Sept. 27 has begun, with over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes $SPX $QQQ $NDX...

Vermilion Research

Achieving Stable Alpha in a Chaotic Bear Market

It is with a chaotic bearish environment in mind that we suggest pairs trading as a more risk-controlled way of finding better returns.

Cam Hui

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)