Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>PC units grew by 1% in 2024, accelerating to 5% YoY in 1Q25. Best performers: Apple, Lenovo. Higher shipments to the US ahead of potential import tariffs but flat end-demand.</li>
<li>~70% of Computers are Made in China, US consumes 25% of total PC. The supply chain is accelerating relocating US-purchased PC out of China, this should be done by end-2025.</li>
<li>There is a risk of over-built and over-stocking in my view if PC Brands are too optimistic on Windows 10 end-of-support and AI PC upgrades.</li>
</ul>


PC units grew by 1% in 2024, accelerating to 5% YoY in 1Q25. Best performers: Apple, Lenovo. Higher shipments to the US ahead of potential import tariffs but flat end-demand.
~70% of Computers are Made in China, US consumes 25% of total PC. The supply chain is accelerating relocating US-purchased PC out of China, this should be done by end-2025.
There is a risk of over-built and over-stocking in my view if PC Brands are too optimistic on Windows 10 end-of-support and AI PC upgrades.


PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Global smartphone market expected to see substantial growth in 4th quarter of 2024, indicating a positive trend for the industry.</li><li>TSMC experiences a drop in revenue in Q1, as AI sector continues to expand and company addresses discrimination allegations.</li><li>AMD CEO recognizes value of open-source technology in DeepSeek, while HP announces plans to reduce workforce by cutting 2,000 jobs, reflecting industry challenges.</li></ul>

Global smartphone market expected to see substantial growth in 4th quarter of 2024, indicating a positive trend for the industry.TSMC experiences a drop in revenue in Q1, as AI sector continues to expand and company addresses discrimination allegations.AMD CEO recognizes value of open-source technology in DeepSeek, while HP announces plans to reduce workforce by cutting 2,000 jobs, reflecting industry challenges.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (11-Mar-2025): Global smartphones in 4Q 2024

<ul><li>Taiwanese wafer industry anticipates growth in the first quarter of 2025, boosting the country's economy.</li><li>Compal teams up with Kalyani Group to bring server manufacturing to India, enhancing local production and technology.</li><li>Chinese lithium battery companies face challenges due to Trump's tariffs, impacting their ability to operate effectively.</li></ul>

Taiwanese wafer industry anticipates growth in the first quarter of 2025, boosting the country's economy.Compal teams up with Kalyani Group to bring server manufacturing to India, enhancing local production and technology.Chinese lithium battery companies face challenges due to Trump's tariffs, impacting their ability to operate effectively.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Mar-2025): Taiwan wafer industry, 1Q 2025.

<ul><li>Japanese IDMs are increasing global investments, while the US keeps a close eye on China's chip industry to adjust supply chains.</li><li>Compal Electronics introduces a new liquid cooling solution for effective cooling of electronic devices.</li><li>Google enhances AI visual generation with Veo 2, Imagen 3, and Whisk, while Innolux focuses on FOPLP and Lam boosts fab efficiency with collaborative robots.</li></ul>

Japanese IDMs are increasing global investments, while the US keeps a close eye on China's chip industry to adjust supply chains.Compal Electronics introduces a new liquid cooling solution for effective cooling of electronic devices.Google enhances AI visual generation with Veo 2, Imagen 3, and Whisk, while Innolux focuses on FOPLP and Lam boosts fab efficiency with collaborative robots.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (25-Dec-2024): Japanese IDMs' global investment plans.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s N2 Progress Sparks Buzz Amid Yield Improvement Rumors; If True Then 2nm Will Become Even More Successful Than 3nm</li>
<li>Hon Hai &amp; TASA Showcase Homegrown Space Technologies Including an Alternative to Starlink</li>
<li>Himax: Buyback Program Lifts Shares; Auto Display Controllers, AR Displays &amp; WLO for AI Progressing </li>
</ul>


TSMC’s N2 Progress Sparks Buzz Amid Yield Improvement Rumors; If True Then 2nm Will Become Even More Successful Than 3nm
Hon Hai &amp; TASA Showcase Homegrown Space Technologies Including an Alternative to Starlink
Himax: Buyback Program Lifts Shares; Auto Display Controllers, AR Displays &amp; WLO for AI Progressing 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 2NM Yield Jump Rumors; Seeing Taiwan's Starlink Alternative Firsthand in KS

Taiwan

Compal Electronics Inc. manufactures and markets notebook computers and color monitors.  The Company also produces liquid crystal displays and other computer related products.  Compal Electronics exports its products to the United States, Europe, and Asia.

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Compal Electronics (2324 TT)

PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue

PC unit growth accelerates in 2025, driven by Apple and Lenovo, but dreams of a Windows 10 and AI PC upgrade pose risks of over-building and over...

Nicolas Baratte

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (11-Mar-2025): Global smartphones in 4Q 2024

4th quarter of 2024 brings growth in global smartphone market, TSMC revenue drops, AI thrives, AMD CEO values DeepSeek, HP to cut jobs, Taiwanese...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Mar-2025): Taiwan wafer industry, 1Q 2025.

Taiwan wafer industry forecasts growth, Compal partners with Kalyani Group, Chinese lithium battery makers affected by Trump's tariffs, MediaTek...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (25-Dec-2024): Japanese IDMs' global investment plans.

Japanese IDMs expand globally, US watches China's chip industry, Compal Electronics introduces liquid cooling, Google enhances AI visuals, Innolux...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 2NM Yield Jump Rumors; Seeing Taiwan's Starlink Alternative Firsthand in KS

Did a TSMC engineer disclose a production yield improvement for the company's 2nm manufacturing? In Kaohsiong, the development of Taiwan's upcoming...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue

​PC unit growth accelerates in 2025, driven by Apple and Lenovo, but dreams of a Windows 10 and AI PC upgrade pose risks of over-building and over...

Nicolas Baratte

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (11-Mar-2025): Global smartphones in 4Q 2024

4th quarter of 2024 brings growth in global smartphone market, TSMC revenue drops, AI thrives, AMD CEO values DeepSeek, HP to cut jobs, Taiwanese...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Mar-2025): Taiwan wafer industry, 1Q 2025.

Taiwan wafer industry forecasts growth, Compal partners with Kalyani Group, Chinese lithium battery makers affected by Trump's tariffs, MediaTek...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (25-Dec-2024): Japanese IDMs' global investment plans.

Japanese IDMs expand globally, US watches China's chip industry, Compal Electronics introduces liquid cooling, Google enhances AI visuals, Innolux...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 2NM Yield Jump Rumors; Seeing Taiwan's Starlink Alternative Firsthand in KS

Did a TSMC engineer disclose a production yield improvement for the company's 2nm manufacturing? In Kaohsiong, the development of Taiwan's upcoming...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC unit growth accelerates in 2025, driven by Apple and Lenovo, but dreams of a Windows 10 and AI PC upgrade pose risks of over-building and over...