Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a></strong> has <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02470354-2A1347932?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered</a> into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Canada's <strong>Dye &amp; Durham</strong>, at an Offer price of A$5.50/share plus a A$0.03/share fully franked interim dividend.</li>
<li>The Offer Price values Link's equity at $2.9bn and enterprise value at $3.7bn. The Offer Price is a 27.7% premium to the undisturbed price on 4 November 2021.</li>
<li>A Scheme Meeting is expected to be held in May next year with a possible implementation in late June or early July.</li>
</ul>



Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Canada's Dye &amp; Durham, at an Offer price of A$5.50/share plus a A$0.03/share fully franked interim dividend.
The Offer Price values Link's equity at $2.9bn and enterprise value at $3.7bn. The Offer Price is a 27.7% premium to the undisturbed price on 4 November 2021.
A Scheme Meeting is expected to be held in May next year with a possible implementation in late June or early July.


Link Admin (LNK AU) Inks Deal With Dye & Durham As Carlyle Dithers

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics have mildly deteriorated in recent weeks on concerns over less accommodative monetary policy and the Omicron variant.</li>
<li>Despite recent deterioration, critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes, and our global outlook remains neutral as we continue to expect more consolidation and mixed markets.</li>
<li>Growth continues to outperform relative to value. Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics have mildly deteriorated in recent weeks on concerns over less accommodative monetary policy and the Omicron variant.
Despite recent deterioration, critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes, and our global outlook remains neutral as we continue to expect more consolidation and mixed markets.
Growth continues to outperform relative to value. Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary.


Add To Growth On This Pullback; Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a> announced that it received a non-binding indicative proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group Inc (CG US)</a>. Carlyle will offer A$3.00 cash per share plus a pro-rata distribution of Link’s 42.8% shareholding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> (worth A$2.38 per Link share at PEXA’s share price of A$16.23 on 4 November). The total consideration of A$5.38 per share is a 24.2% premium to the unaffected price of A$4.33 (on 4 November). Carlyle’s core Link (excluding PEXA stake) value of A$3.00 per share is a 53.8% premium to the implied core Link share price of A$1.95 per share (on 4 November). </p><p>Link is no stranger to bids and received several bids in the recent past, including from Carlyle. Carlyle and Pacific Equity Partners made an indicative A$5.20 per share offer on 12 October 2020, which was later raised to A$5.40 on 26 October but withdrawn on 28 April 2021. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ss-c-technologies-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3464:1" rel="noopener">SS&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US)</a> lobbed an A$5.65 per share offer on 7 December 2020 but withdrew the offer on 3 January 2021. Also, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co Inc (KKR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domain-holdings-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26033:1" rel="noopener">Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU)</a> proposed to acquire PEXA for A$3.1 billion on 27 May 2021 which was declined in favour of a separate listing for PEXA.  </p><p>Link’s Board has argued that the previous bids did not represent compelling value and sought to generate shareholder returns through the PEXA IPO and outlining ambitious FY26 targets in a November investor day. However, PEXA’s market cap of A$2.8 billion at last close is below KKR’s bid of A$3.1 billion. The lukewarm share price response (shares down -2% on the following day) to the investor day points to low confidence that the targets can be reached. </p><p>Carlyle’s latest offer is subject to due diligence, execution of transaction documents and securing debt financing. Due diligence should be short due to Carlyle’s access to the due diligence materials through its previous bid.  </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The Board’s previous track record of knocking back bids has resulted in Link’s last close price of A$4.70 trading at a wide 14.5% gross spread to the indicative offer of A$5.38 per share. However, due to the Board’s failure to generate shareholder value and there no longer being a debate on PEXA valuation (as PEXA is now listed), the Board will face pressure to engage with Carlyle. We also think that Carlyle has room to sweeten its bid as its latest bid values core Link at A$3.00 per share, which is 21% below its previous offer which valued core Link at A$3.80 per share. </p></div>

Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) announced that it received a non-binding indicative proposal from Carlyle Group Inc (CG US). Carlyle will offer A$3.00 cash per share plus a pro-rata distribution of Link’s 42.8% shareholding in PEXA Group (PXA AU) (worth A$2.38 per Link share at PEXA’s share price of A$16.23 on 4 November). The total consideration of A$5.38 per share is a 24.2% premium to the unaffected price of A$4.33 (on 4 November). Carlyle’s core Link (excluding PEXA stake) value of A$3.00 per share is a 53.8% premium to the implied core Link share price of A$1.95 per share (on 4 November). Link is no stranger to bids and received several bids in the recent past, including from Carlyle. Carlyle and Pacific Equity Partners made an indicative A$5.20 per share offer on 12 October 2020, which was later raised to A$5.40 on 26 October but withdrawn on 28 April 2021. SS&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US) lobbed an A$5.65 per share offer on 7 December 2020 but withdrew the offer on 3 January 2021. Also, KKR &amp; Co Inc (KKR US) and Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) proposed to acquire PEXA for A$3.1 billion on 27 May 2021 which was declined in favour of a separate listing for PEXA.  Link’s Board has argued that the previous bids did not represent compelling value and sought to generate shareholder returns through the PEXA IPO and outlining ambitious FY26 targets in a November investor day. However, PEXA’s market cap of A$2.8 billion at last close is below KKR’s bid of A$3.1 billion. The lukewarm share price response (shares down -2% on the following day) to the investor day points to low confidence that the targets can be reached. Carlyle’s latest offer is subject to due diligence, execution of transaction documents and securing debt financing. Due diligence should be short due to Carlyle’s access to the due diligence materials through its previous bid.  The Board’s previous track record of knocking back bids has resulted in Link’s last close price of A$4.70 trading at a wide 14.5% gross spread to the indicative offer of A$5.38 per share. However, due to the Board’s failure to generate shareholder value and there no longer being a debate on PEXA valuation (as PEXA is now listed), the Board will face pressure to engage with Carlyle. We also think that Carlyle has room to sweeten its bid as its latest bid values core Link at A$3.00 per share, which is 21% below its previous offer which valued core Link at A$3.80 per share. 

<div>
<p>Back on the 12 October last year,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a> <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02292481-2A1255763?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from a consortium comprising Pacific Equity Partners (PEP) and the Carlyle Group, by way of a Scheme. </p>
<p>The indicative cash price was A$5.20/share, a 30% premium to last close. Perpetual, holding 9.65% of shares out, said it would vote for a firm Offer of $5.20/share and above.</p>
<p>PEP had previously owned Link before it floated the company at A$6.37/share in 2015.</p>
<p>After Link <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02297758-2A1258281?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> the proposal from PEP/Carlyle "<em>materially undervalued the company</em>", the following events took place:</p>
<div>
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 168.591px;">
<h3>Date</h3>
</td>
<td style="width: 534.94px;">
<h3>Data in the Date</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 168.591px;">26-Oct-20</td>
<td style="width: 534.94px;">PEP/Carlyle <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02298663-2A1258716?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tabled</a> a A$5.40/share non-binding indicative Offer, in cash.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 168.591px;">28-Oct-20</td>
<td style="width: 534.94px;">Link <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02300645-2A1259592?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">responded</a> that the proposal was not compelling - but gave the consortium DD access nonetheless.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 168.591px;">7-Dec-20</td>
<td style="width: 534.94px;">Software provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ss-c-technologies-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3464:1" rel="noopener">Ss&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US)</a> pitched a non-binding indicative proposal, by way of Scheme, at A$5.65/share, 4.6% above PEP/Carlyle's proposal.<br><br><em><a href="https://skr.ma/aNsnW" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Link Admin (LNK AU): SS&amp;C Trumps PEP/Carlyle</a></em>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 168.591px;">
<p>10-Dec-20</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 534.94px;">
<p>Link <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02320482-2A1269370?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">grants</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ss-c-technologies-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3464:1" rel="noopener">Ss&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US)</a> due diligence, despite Offer not being compelling. </p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 168.591px;">
<p>3-Jan-21</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 534.94px;">SS&amp;C <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02327774-2A1273133?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">withdraws</a> proposal for Link</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 168.591px;">26-Apr-21</td>
<td style="width: 534.94px;">Bids coming in for Link's 44% stake in PEXA, the digital property settlements group.<br><br><em><a href="https://skr.ma/BxzDT" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Link Admin (LNK AU): PEXA Bidding</a></em>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 168.591px;">
<p>28-Apr-21</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 534.94px;">
<p>After PEP/Carlyle <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02367784-2A1294740?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">withdrew</a> its proposal, Link said it had received non-binding indications for PEXA "significantly greater" than the $1.60/share proposed under the PEP/Carlyle Offer.</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 168.591px;">
<p>27-May-21</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 534.94px;">
<p>Link <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02379094-2A1300378?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it had received an Offer from KKR, in partnership with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domain-holdings-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26033:1" rel="noopener">Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU)</a>, representing an EV of $3bn for 100% of PEXA, or A$1.38bn for Link's equity stake. <br><br><em><a href="https://skr.ma/NQHcJ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Link Group (LNK AU): KKR Opens The Bidding For PEXA</a></em></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 168.591px;">
<p>30 May-21</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 534.94px;">
<p>Link <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02379720-2A1300690?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it would take PEXA public on with an enterprise value of A$3.3bn.<br><br><em><a href="https://skr.ma/CrBHo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Link Admin (LNK AU) Goes IPO Route For PEXA Afterall</a></em></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 168.591px;">
<p>31-May-21</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 534.94px;">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domain-holdings-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26033:1" rel="noopener">Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU)</a><a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02379766-2A1300716?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it is no longer participating in the PEXA sale process. </p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 168.591px;">
<p>15-Jun-21</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 534.94px;">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> prospectus <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02384387-2A1303417?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lodged</a></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 168.591px;">
<p>1-Jul-21</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 534.94px;">
<p>PEXA commenced trading at <a href="https://www.pexa.com.au/news/pexa-lists-on-the-australian-securities-exchange" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$17.13/share</a>. Link held 42.8% at the conclusion of the IPO.</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 168.591px;">
<p>26-Aug-21</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 534.94px;">
<p>Link announced on-market buybacks up to <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02412381-2A1318563?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A$150mn</a></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<h3>The New News</h3>
</div>
<div>
<p>Carlyle has returned to the well with a non-binding offer of <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02447824-2A1336602?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$5.38/share</a>, by way of a Scheme, valuing Link at A$2.8bn.</p>
<p>The Offer consideration is $3.00/share in cash for Link's core business, plus a pro-rata distribution of Link’s 42.8% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a>, which has a look-through value of A$2.38/share. Therefore Carlyle's proposal values each Link share at $5.38/share, a 24.2% premium to last close.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>That looks to be a compelling Offer.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
<p></p>
</div>


Back on the 12 October last year,  Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) announced a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from a consortium comprising Pacific Equity Partners (PEP) and the Carlyle Group, by way of a Scheme. 
The indicative cash price was A$5.20/share, a 30% premium to last close. Perpetual, holding 9.65% of shares out, said it would vote for a firm Offer of $5.20/share and above.
PEP had previously owned Link before it floated the company at A$6.37/share in 2015.
After Link said the proposal from PEP/Carlyle "materially undervalued the company", the following events took place:





Date


Data in the Date



26-Oct-20
PEP/Carlyle tabled a A$5.40/share non-binding indicative Offer, in cash.


28-Oct-20
Link responded that the proposal was not compelling - but gave the consortium DD access nonetheless.


7-Dec-20
Software provider Ss&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US) pitched a non-binding indicative proposal, by way of Scheme, at A$5.65/share, 4.6% above PEP/Carlyle's proposal.  Link Admin (LNK AU): SS&amp;C Trumps PEP/Carlyle




10-Dec-20


Link grants Ss&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US) due diligence, despite Offer not being compelling. 




3-Jan-21

SS&amp;C withdraws proposal for Link


26-Apr-21
Bids coming in for Link's 44% stake in PEXA, the digital property settlements group.  Link Admin (LNK AU): PEXA Bidding




28-Apr-21


After PEP/Carlyle withdrew its proposal, Link said it had received non-binding indications for PEXA "significantly greater" than the $1.60/share proposed under the PEP/Carlyle Offer.




27-May-21


Link announced it had received an Offer from KKR, in partnership with Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU), representing an EV of $3bn for 100% of PEXA, or A$1.38bn for Link's equity stake.   Link Group (LNK AU): KKR Opens The Bidding For PEXA




30 May-21


Link announced it would take PEXA public on with an enterprise value of A$3.3bn.  Link Admin (LNK AU) Goes IPO Route For PEXA Afterall




31-May-21


Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU)announced it is no longer participating in the PEXA sale process. 




15-Jun-21


PEXA Group (PXA AU) prospectus lodged




1-Jul-21


PEXA commenced trading at $17.13/share. Link held 42.8% at the conclusion of the IPO.




26-Aug-21


Link announced on-market buybacks up to A$150mn





The New News


Carlyle has returned to the well with a non-binding offer of $5.38/share, by way of a Scheme, valuing Link at A$2.8bn.
The Offer consideration is $3.00/share in cash for Link's core business, plus a pro-rata distribution of Link’s 42.8% stake in PEXA Group (PXA AU), which has a look-through value of A$2.38/share. Therefore Carlyle's proposal values each Link share at $5.38/share, a 24.2% premium to last close.


That looks to be a compelling Offer.


More below the fold.



Link Admin (LNK AU): Carlyle Returns. With A Lower Offer

GigaDevice Semiconductor  / Technical Analysis

<p>Market dynamics remain largely positive which continues to support our constructive outlook, and we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity. Below we highlight notable recent developments and actionable stocks within the Technology, Financials, and Materials Sectors.</p>

Market dynamics remain largely positive which continues to support our constructive outlook, and we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity. Below we highlight notable recent developments and actionable stocks within the Technology, Financials, and Materials Sectors.

China Technology Sector Improving -- Add Exposure

Australia

Computershare Limited operates share registries and computer bureaus which includes the administration of employee share and option plans and the provision of software that specializes in share registry, financial and stock markets. The Company also provides corporate trust services and acts as a trustee for clients' debt offerings in certain markets.

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Computershare Ltd (CPU AU)

Link Admin (LNK AU) Inks Deal With Dye & Durham As Carlyle Dithers

I believe Carlyle is not out of the picture. Plus you have the possible bump in terms from Link selling BCM. I'd look to enter around here or below.

David Blennerhassett

Add To Growth On This Pullback; Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary

Growth continues to outperform relative to value, shown by the intact uptrend on the MSCI ACWI ex-US Growth vs. Value ratio. We highlight...

Vermilion Research

Link Gets Another Offer from Carlyle

Link received another offer from Carlyle worth A$5.38 per share. Carlyle has room to sweeten its bid as its latest bid values core Link at A$3.00...

Arun George

Link Admin (LNK AU): Carlyle Returns. With A Lower Offer

Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 13.1%/34.7%, assuming five months to complete. There are risks attached to Indicative Offers. However,...

David Blennerhassett

China Technology Sector Improving -- Add Exposure

Market dynamics remain largely positive which continues to support our constructive outlook, and we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity....

Vermilion Research

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