IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Shareholders approved the scheme at the scheme meeting. However, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> shares declined due to the slow progress in satisfaction of conditions precedent.</li>
<li>Key conditions precedent is ACCC, FIRB, UK's FCA and Central Bank of Ireland approvals. The wording in the Chairman's address on the conditions precedent is incrementally negative.</li>
<li>The downside to a deal break remains low. At the last close, the potential upside to the offer (10.1%) outweighs the downside (-3.8% to our A$4.21 price target).</li>
</ul>


Shareholders approved the scheme at the scheme meeting. However, Link Administration (LNK AU) shares declined due to the slow progress in satisfaction of conditions precedent.
Key conditions precedent is ACCC, FIRB, UK's FCA and Central Bank of Ireland approvals. The wording in the Chairman's address on the conditions precedent is incrementally negative.
The downside to a deal break remains low. At the last close, the potential upside to the offer (10.1%) outweighs the downside (-3.8% to our A$4.21 price target).


Link’s Scheme Approved but Time Running Out for Satisfying Conditions Precedent

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week we noted that the bullish reversals had begun, with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), STOXX Europe 50, and SPX the first few to reverse topside their 4-month downtrends.</li>
<li>As we discuss below, bullish reversals are proliferating globally, something that continues to support our belief that global equities are bottoming.</li>
<li>Global growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and have emerged as leadership -- overweight growth. Sectors covered today include Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials -- add exposure</li>
</ul>


Last week we noted that the bullish reversals had begun, with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), STOXX Europe 50, and SPX the first few to reverse topside their 4-month downtrends.
As we discuss below, bullish reversals are proliferating globally, something that continues to support our belief that global equities are bottoming.
Global growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and have emerged as leadership -- overweight growth. Sectors covered today include Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials -- add exposure


Bullish Reversals Proliferate; Stick With Growth; Buy Ideas in Tech, Discretionary, & Industrials

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> scheme meeting is scheduled for 22 August. The independent expert has concluded that the revised Dye &amp; Durham/DND offer is fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>There are several conditions precedents which could yet derail the deal. The key hurdles are the ACCC approval, ongoing FCA investigation and regulatory approval for certain DND shareholders.</li>
<li>At the last close, the gross and annualised spread to a 27 September payment is 9.3% and 79.1%, respectively. Ongoing satisfaction of conditions is the key catalyst.</li>
</ul>


The Link Administration (LNK AU) scheme meeting is scheduled for 22 August. The independent expert has concluded that the revised Dye &amp; Durham/DND offer is fair and reasonable.
There are several conditions precedents which could yet derail the deal. The key hurdles are the ACCC approval, ongoing FCA investigation and regulatory approval for certain DND shareholders.
At the last close, the gross and annualised spread to a 27 September payment is 9.3% and 79.1%, respectively. Ongoing satisfaction of conditions is the key catalyst.


Link’s New Scheme Meeting on 22 August but Deal Break Risks Remain

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> has entered a revised scheme implementation deed with Dye&amp;Durham/DND at A$4.81 per share. The scheme meeting will be held in mid-August.</li>
<li>Shareholders will be supportive due to deal fatigue, and the offer price is 11% above the undisturbed price and at the low end of the original IE valuation range.</li>
<li>Regulatory approvals are a key risk. DND is presumably confident in its undertakings to gain ACCC approval. At last close, the gross spread is 7.8%.</li>
</ul>



Link Administration (LNK AU) has entered a revised scheme implementation deed with Dye&amp;Durham/DND at A$4.81 per share. The scheme meeting will be held in mid-August.
Shareholders will be supportive due to deal fatigue, and the offer price is 11% above the undisturbed price and at the low end of the original IE valuation range.
Regulatory approvals are a key risk. DND is presumably confident in its undertakings to gain ACCC approval. At last close, the gross spread is 7.8%.


<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> Board will not recommend Dye&amp;Durham/DND’s revised lower offer of A$4.57 per share due to shareholder feedback, the underlying value and alternative options.</li>
<li>The slightly above guidance is designed to show that Link's contribution to DND's build a billion objective remains on track and there is little chance of triggering the MAC clause.</li>
<li>DND needs to secure a deal this week to use its attractive deal financing, according to AFR. This could be the cue for DND to give a little more.</li>
</ul>


The Link Administration (LNK AU) Board will not recommend Dye&amp;Durham/DND’s revised lower offer of A$4.57 per share due to shareholder feedback, the underlying value and alternative options.
The slightly above guidance is designed to show that Link's contribution to DND's build a billion objective remains on track and there is little chance of triggering the MAC clause.
DND needs to secure a deal this week to use its attractive deal financing, according to AFR. This could be the cue for DND to give a little more.


Australia

Computershare Limited operates share registries and computer bureaus which includes the administration of employee share and option plans and the provision of software that specializes in share registry, financial and stock markets. The Company also provides corporate trust services and acts as a trustee for clients' debt offerings in certain markets.

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Computershare Ltd (CPU AU)

Link’s Scheme Approved but Time Running Out for Satisfying Conditions Precedent

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Bullish reversals begun last week in $ACWI, $SPX, and $STOXX Europe 50, with each reversing topside their 4-month downtrends. Now, bullish...

Vermilion Research

Link’s New Scheme Meeting on 22 August but Deal Break Risks Remain

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Link and DND Shake Hands at A$4.81

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Link’s Board Shows Its Hand

Link's Board is holding out for a little more and the guidance supports its case. DND is running out of time to use its deal financing. A marginal...

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