Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>TSE-Listed companies are asked to file "Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.</li>
<li>There were case study updates published 26 December. Interesting, but not ground-breaking. 475 companies filed CGRs in December 2025 after 262 companies filed in November.</li>
<li>The most recent set of documents has some really disappointing comments and questions from companies and their executives. It makes one wonder...</li>
</ul>


TSE-Listed companies are asked to file "Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
There were case study updates published 26 December. Interesting, but not ground-breaking. 475 companies filed CGRs in December 2025 after 262 companies filed in November.
The most recent set of documents has some really disappointing comments and questions from companies and their executives. It makes one wonder...


[Japan CorpGov] TSE "Mgmt Conscious" Reports (Jan26) - Disappointing Set of Case Studies

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of M-Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial, Ebara, Honda Motor, Softbank, Ebara, Kioxia, Toyota Motor, Honda Motor, Sony Financial, Rakuten.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of M-Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial, Ebara, Honda Motor, Softbank, Ebara, Kioxia, Toyota Motor, Honda Motor, Sony Financial, Rakuten.


M-Japan Index Earning Revision (Nov): Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We introduce our Japanese big cap banks scorecard; from this, we pick Resona, Mizuho and SMFG with our wildcard being Shizuoka</li>
<li>The scorecard metrics measure leverage to higher interest rates, LDRs, levels of cash balances, bond exposures, cross-holdings and valuations; from this, we derive a weighted ranking for each bank</li>
<li>We remove Concordia from our buy list; we prefer Shizuoka for its better leverage to rising rates and high ratio of cross-holdings to market capitalization with a holdings reduction plan</li>
</ul>


We introduce our Japanese big cap banks scorecard; from this, we pick Resona, Mizuho and SMFG with our wildcard being Shizuoka
The scorecard metrics measure leverage to higher interest rates, LDRs, levels of cash balances, bond exposures, cross-holdings and valuations; from this, we derive a weighted ranking for each bank
We remove Concordia from our buy list; we prefer Shizuoka for its better leverage to rising rates and high ratio of cross-holdings to market capitalization with a holdings reduction plan


Japanese Big Cap Banks – Three Scorecard Stand-Outs, and One Wildcard

<ul>
<li>BoJ raised rates to 0.5% at its January policy meeting and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at more rate hikes; BoJ’s new Outlook Report forecasts higher core inflation in 2025</li>
<li>We reiterate our core recommendations Resona and Mizuho for their leverage to higher interest rates, their low LDRs, their high levels of cash at the BoJ and their modest valuation</li>
<li>We also keep our buys on Concordia and Shizuoka, for their leverage to higher interest rates and LDRs below 90%, along with their attractive valuations highlighted by low PEGs</li>
</ul>


BoJ raised rates to 0.5% at its January policy meeting and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at more rate hikes; BoJ’s new Outlook Report forecasts higher core inflation in 2025
We reiterate our core recommendations Resona and Mizuho for their leverage to higher interest rates, their low LDRs, their high levels of cash at the BoJ and their modest valuation
We also keep our buys on Concordia and Shizuoka, for their leverage to higher interest rates and LDRs below 90%, along with their attractive valuations highlighted by low PEGs


Japanese Big Cap Banks – Revisiting Interest Rate Sensitivities

<ul>
<li>Market expectations that the BoJ’s monetary policy meeting will raise benchmark interest rates in December are reflected in the rising JGB yields, and in the domestic lending rate trends</li>
<li>We reiterate our core recommendations of Resona and Mizuho for their leverage to higher interest rates, their low LDRs and their high share of strategic holdings relative to market capitalisation</li>
<li>We reduce Chiba to neutral from buy, keep our buy on Concordia; we add Shizuoka for its gearing to higher interest rates and very high share of strategic shareholdings</li>
</ul>


Market expectations that the BoJ’s monetary policy meeting will raise benchmark interest rates in December are reflected in the rising JGB yields, and in the domestic lending rate trends
We reiterate our core recommendations of Resona and Mizuho for their leverage to higher interest rates, their low LDRs and their high share of strategic holdings relative to market capitalisation
We reduce Chiba to neutral from buy, keep our buy on Concordia; we add Shizuoka for its gearing to higher interest rates and very high share of strategic shareholdings


Japanese Big Cap Banks – Shizuoka (5831 JP) Upgraded to Buy, Chiba (8331 JP) To Neutral from Buy

Japan

Concordia Financial Group, Ltd. is a holding company established through the merger of Bank of Yokohama and Higashi-Nippon Bank. The Company provides banking services and other financial services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Concordia Financial Group, Ltd (7186 JP)

[Japan CorpGov] TSE "Mgmt Conscious" Reports (Jan26) - Disappointing Set of Case Studies

The TSE's "Management Conscious of Capital Costs and Share Price" filings continue. 475 CorpGovReports filed in December. Exedy has a new plan. TSE...

Travis Lundy

M-Japan Index Earning Revision (Nov): Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial

We analyzed M-Japan's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Toyota Motor (7203 JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Rakuten (4755 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Three Scorecard Stand-Outs, and One Wildcard

Introducing Japanese big cap banks scorecard: Resona, Mizuho, SMFG top picks with Shizuoka as the wildcard; metrics measure leverage, LDRs, cash...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Revisiting Interest Rate Sensitivities

BoJ raises rates to 0.5% and hints at more hikes, forecasting higher inflation in 2025. Buy Resona, Mizuho, Concordia, and Shizuoka due primarily...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Shizuoka (5831 JP) Upgraded to Buy, Chiba (8331 JP) To Neutral from Buy

Expectations are for BoJ to hike rates, potentially in December; we like Resona, Mizuho, Concordia, Shizuoka for higher rates gearing, low LDRs,...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Japan CorpGov] TSE "Mgmt Conscious" Reports (Jan26) - Disappointing Set of Case Studies

The TSE's "Management Conscious of Capital Costs and Share Price" filings continue. 475 CorpGovReports filed in December. Exedy has a new plan. TSE...

Travis Lundy

M-Japan Index Earning Revision (Nov): Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial

We analyzed M-Japan's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Toyota Motor (7203 JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Rakuten (4755 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Three Scorecard Stand-Outs, and One Wildcard

​Introducing Japanese big cap banks scorecard: Resona, Mizuho, SMFG top picks with Shizuoka as the wildcard; metrics measure leverage, LDRs, cash...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Revisiting Interest Rate Sensitivities

​BoJ raises rates to 0.5% and hints at more hikes, forecasting higher inflation in 2025. Buy Resona, Mizuho, Concordia, and Shizuoka due primarily...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Shizuoka (5831 JP) Upgraded to Buy, Chiba (8331 JP) To Neutral from Buy

​Expectations are for BoJ to hike rates, potentially in December; we like Resona, Mizuho, Concordia, Shizuoka for higher rates gearing, low LDRs,...

Victor Galliano

Introducing Japanese big cap banks scorecard: Resona, Mizuho, SMFG top picks with Shizuoka as the wildcard; metrics measure leverage, LDRs, cash...

BoJ raises rates to 0.5% and hints at more hikes, forecasting higher inflation in 2025. Buy Resona, Mizuho, Concordia, and Shizuoka due primarily...

Expectations are for BoJ to hike rates, potentially in December; we like Resona, Mizuho, Concordia, Shizuoka for higher rates gearing, low LDRs,...