Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7580-7629 holds.</li>
<li>At the same time, if SPX breaks below 7580 we would look for a 7-10% peak-to-trough decline, while being mindful of support at 7250-7300.</li>
<li>A.I. areas were hit hard yesterday following the "pacing the frontier" developments over the weekend, and we believe caution is warranted on semiconductors, memory, neoclouds, and photonics names.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7580-7629 holds.
At the same time, if SPX breaks below 7580 we would look for a 7-10% peak-to-trough decline, while being mindful of support at 7250-7300.
A.I. areas were hit hard yesterday following the "pacing the frontier" developments over the weekend, and we believe caution is warranted on semiconductors, memory, neoclouds, and photonics names.


Wall of Worry Grows Taller; 7580 on SPX Remains Vital. Charts Highlighted: SPX, MAGS, SOXX, DRAM

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ConocoPhillips reported solid financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2026, navigating ongoing macroeconomic challenges exacerbated by geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.</li><li>The company generated $2.4 billion in free cash flow and returned $2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.</li><li>Production averaged approximately 2.31 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), with strong growth in the Lower 48 region driving a 4% year-over-year increase.</li></ul>

ConocoPhillips reported solid financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2026, navigating ongoing macroeconomic challenges exacerbated by geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.The company generated $2.4 billion in free cash flow and returned $2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.Production averaged approximately 2.31 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), with strong growth in the Lower 48 region driving a 4% year-over-year increase.

Is ConocoPhillips' Willow At 50% Complete The Long-Term Catalyst That Justifies The Outperform?

<ul><li>When ConocoPhillips explores selling roughly $2 billion of Delaware Basin assets, it is rarely just about trimming acreage.</li><li>The move follows its $17 billion acquisition of Marathon Oil and signals a sharper post-merger cleanup.</li><li>Management already lifted its divestiture target to $5 billion after integrating Marathon.</li></ul>

When ConocoPhillips explores selling roughly $2 billion of Delaware Basin assets, it is rarely just about trimming acreage.The move follows its $17 billion acquisition of Marathon Oil and signals a sharper post-merger cleanup.Management already lifted its divestiture target to $5 billion after integrating Marathon.

ConocoPhillips Just Trimmed Delaware—LEANER Or Growth Capped?

CEO / Founder, Crea8

Kim-Hwa Lim

CEO / Founder

Make an Impact

Crea8

Crea8 blends AI-driven precision, big data scalability, and rigorous quantitative frameworks with seasoned human insight. By extracting actionable intelligence from vast global datasets, we eliminate emotional bias and deliver optimal risk-adjusted returns. Our hybrid approach uncovers hidden market efficiencies and ensures your capital is dynamically positioned across markets.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The strategy seeks to invest in global companies with sustainable competitive advantages and are Shariah compliant.</li><li>By adopting a portfolio of stocks instead of individual stocks, the strategy is diversified across countries and industries; and optimised with respect to their expected risks and returns.</li><li>Previous portfolio returned 4.1% vs. MSCI World (4.2%) – underperformed the benchmark by -0.1%.</li></ul>

The strategy seeks to invest in global companies with sustainable competitive advantages and are Shariah compliant.By adopting a portfolio of stocks instead of individual stocks, the strategy is diversified across countries and industries; and optimised with respect to their expected risks and returns.Previous portfolio returned 4.1% vs. MSCI World (4.2%) – underperformed the benchmark by -0.1%.

Global Competitive Barrier (Shariah) Portfolio (18-Aug-2026)

<ul><li>ConocoPhillips' third-quarter 2025 results reflect a solid performance marked by strategic shifts and ongoing projects that could influence future financial outcomes.</li><li>The company reported production of 2,399,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, surpassing the upper limit of its guidance and generating $1.61 per share in adjusted earnings.</li><li>Operational efficiency is evidenced by decreased capital expenditures at $2.9 billion, and robust cash flow from operations amounting to $5.4 billion.</li></ul>

ConocoPhillips' third-quarter 2025 results reflect a solid performance marked by strategic shifts and ongoing projects that could influence future financial outcomes.The company reported production of 2,399,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, surpassing the upper limit of its guidance and generating $1.61 per share in adjusted earnings.Operational efficiency is evidenced by decreased capital expenditures at $2.9 billion, and robust cash flow from operations amounting to $5.4 billion.

ConocoPhillips: Inside Surmont & Montney- What Hidden Capacity Expansions Reveal About Its Strategy!

United States

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, liquefied natural gas and bitumen on a worldwide basis.

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Conocophillips (COP US)

Wall of Worry Grows Taller; 7580 on SPX Remains Vital. Charts Highlighted: SPX, MAGS, SOXX, DRAM

Wall of Worry Grows Taller; 7580 on SPX Remains Vital. Charts Highlighted: SPX, MAGS, SOXX, DRAM, PBR, REPYY, EC, YPF, UGP, GPRK, GTE, COP, EOG,...

Vermilion Research

Is ConocoPhillips' Willow At 50% Complete The Long-Term Catalyst That Justifies The Outperform?

ConocoPhillips reported solid financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2026, navigating ongoing macroeconomic challenges...

Baptista Research

ConocoPhillips Just Trimmed Delaware—LEANER Or Growth Capped?

When ConocoPhillips explores selling roughly $2 billion of Delaware Basin assets, it is rarely just about trimming acreage. The move follows its...

Baptista Research

Global Competitive Barrier (Shariah) Portfolio (18-Aug-2026)

The strategy seeks to invest in global companies with sustainable competitive advantages and are Shariah compliant. By adopting a portfolio of...

Crea8

ConocoPhillips: Inside Surmont & Montney- What Hidden Capacity Expansions Reveal About Its Strategy!

ConocoPhillips' third-quarter 2025 results reflect a solid performance marked by strategic shifts and ongoing projects that could influence future...

Baptista Research

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