Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime</li>
</ul>


Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.
We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime


Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 21/Feb, U.S. crude inventories dropped by 2.3m barrels, contradicting expectations of a 2.5m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose, while distillate stocks surged more than expected.</li>
<li>U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 261 Bcf for the week ending 21/Feb, lower than analyst expectations of a 276 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>BP pivots back to fossil fuels, cutting renewables and reducing its quarterly buyback to USD 0.75 billion from USD 1.75 billion. President Trump revoked Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 21/Feb, U.S. crude inventories dropped by 2.3m barrels, contradicting expectations of a 2.5m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose, while distillate stocks surged more than expected.
U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 261 Bcf for the week ending 21/Feb, lower than analyst expectations of a 276 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.
BP pivots back to fossil fuels, cutting renewables and reducing its quarterly buyback to USD 0.75 billion from USD 1.75 billion. President Trump revoked Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela.


[ETP 2025/09] WTI Drops on Trade Tensions, Henry Hub Falls to Forecasts of Milder Temperatures

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/AXL CN)C; target price of £0.65 per share: All eyes on the first horizontal well at Carrizales Norte – The 1Q24 production of 2,730 boe/d was close to our expectations.</li>
<li>Arrow’s cash position of US$11.6 mm was also in line.</li>
<li>The first water disposal well at RCE is being brought into production and the conversion of the CN-4 well is currently waiting regulatory approval.</li>
</ul>


Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/AXL CN)C; target price of £0.65 per share: All eyes on the first horizontal well at Carrizales Norte – The 1Q24 production of 2,730 boe/d was close to our expectations.
Arrow’s cash position of US$11.6 mm was also in line.
The first water disposal well at RCE is being brought into production and the conversion of the CN-4 well is currently waiting regulatory approval.


Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Wells Fargo Strengthens Investment Bank with JPMorgan Veteran Fernando Rivas</li>
<li>ConocoPhillips to Acquire Marathon Oil in $ 17 Billion Deal</li>
<li>Biden Administration Expands Clean Energy Tax Credits Beyond Wind and Solar</li>
</ul>


Wells Fargo Strengthens Investment Bank with JPMorgan Veteran Fernando Rivas
ConocoPhillips to Acquire Marathon Oil in $ 17 Billion Deal
Biden Administration Expands Clean Energy Tax Credits Beyond Wind and Solar


#7Business Buzz: WellsFargo Expands Investment Arm, ConocoPhillips $17 Bn Deal, VinFast US Plant

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,376/1,384 points (50-day EMA and 75-day EMA) and the support at 1,365/1,355 points.</li><li>Overall, the index is moving in a downtrend pattern within the range of 1,320-1,410 points.</li><li>However, in the short term, there was an uptrend signal for the first time after a positive breakout signal occurred on Tuesday, due to the index managing to breach the resistance of 1,365 points for the first time in five trading days.</li></ul>

Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,376/1,384 points (50-day EMA and 75-day EMA) and the support at 1,365/1,355 points.Overall, the index is moving in a downtrend pattern within the range of 1,320-1,410 points.However, in the short term, there was an uptrend signal for the first time after a positive breakout signal occurred on Tuesday, due to the index managing to breach the resistance of 1,365 points for the first time in five trading days.

EU's Manufacturing PMI in April and Earnings Results

United States

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, liquefied natural gas and bitumen on a worldwide basis.

Price Gauge
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Conocophillips (COP US)

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

[ETP 2025/09] WTI Drops on Trade Tensions, Henry Hub Falls to Forecasts of Milder Temperatures

US oil inventories drop, defying expectations. Natural gas inventories fall below analyst predictions. BP shifts focus back to fossil fuels, Trump...

Mint Finance

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 31/05/2024

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/AXL CN)C; target price of £0.65 per share: All eyes on the first horizontal well at Carrizales Norte – The 1Q24...

Auctus Advisors

#7Business Buzz: WellsFargo Expands Investment Arm, ConocoPhillips $17 Bn Deal, VinFast US Plant

Wells Fargo hires JPMorgan veteran, ConocoPhillips acquires Marathon Oil for $17 bn, Biden expands clean energy tax credits.

Nimish Maheshwari

EU's Manufacturing PMI in April and Earnings Results

Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,376/1,384 points (50-day EMA and 75-day EMA) and the support at...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

[ETP 2025/09] WTI Drops on Trade Tensions, Henry Hub Falls to Forecasts of Milder Temperatures

​US oil inventories drop, defying expectations. Natural gas inventories fall below analyst predictions. BP shifts focus back to fossil fuels, Trump...

Mint Finance

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 31/05/2024

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/AXL CN)C; target price of £0.65 per share: All eyes on the first horizontal well at Carrizales Norte – The 1Q24...

Auctus Advisors

#7Business Buzz: WellsFargo Expands Investment Arm, ConocoPhillips $17 Bn Deal, VinFast US Plant

​Wells Fargo hires JPMorgan veteran, ConocoPhillips acquires Marathon Oil for $17 bn, Biden expands clean energy tax credits.

Nimish Maheshwari

EU's Manufacturing PMI in April and Earnings Results

Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,376/1,384 points (50-day EMA and 75-day EMA) and the support at...

Krungthai XSpring

US oil inventories drop, defying expectations. Natural gas inventories fall below analyst predictions. BP shifts focus back to fossil fuels, Trump...

Wells Fargo hires JPMorgan veteran, ConocoPhillips acquires Marathon Oil for $17 bn, Biden expands clean energy tax credits.