Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the SPX and Nasdaq 100 close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get cautious.</li>
<li>This still hasn't happened (short-term trend remains bullish). If we get 2-3 closes below the 20-dayMAs, next support would be 4983-5050 on SPX, $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24)</li>
<li>If some or all of these gaps remain unfilled, it is a sign that bulls remain in control. We are seeing a rotation into commodity Sectors, we highlight several buys</li>
</ul>


We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the SPX and Nasdaq 100 close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get cautious.
This still hasn't happened (short-term trend remains bullish). If we get 2-3 closes below the 20-dayMAs, next support would be 4983-5050 on SPX, $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24)
If some or all of these gaps remain unfilled, it is a sign that bulls remain in control. We are seeing a rotation into commodity Sectors, we highlight several buys


Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In the Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings, ConocoPhillips maintained a solid execution across all aspects of its investment mandate.</li><li>The company reported record production, marking itself as an industry leader in reserve replacement.</li><li>It advanced its global liquified natural gas (LNG) strategy with expansion in Qatar, final investment decision (FID) at Port Arthur, and several offtake and regasification agreements.</li></ul>

In the Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings, ConocoPhillips maintained a solid execution across all aspects of its investment mandate.The company reported record production, marking itself as an industry leader in reserve replacement.It advanced its global liquified natural gas (LNG) strategy with expansion in Qatar, final investment decision (FID) at Port Arthur, and several offtake and regasification agreements.

ConocoPhillips: Will The Expansion Of LNG Operations Result In A Solid 2024? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>ConocoPhillips delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent results, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.</li><li>In the recent quarter, ConocoPhillips witnessed robust performance, marked by significant achievements across its international portfolio.</li><li>Financially, the company demonstrated significant global and Lower 48 production in Q3, prompting an upward revision of full-year production guidance.</li></ul>

ConocoPhillips delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent results, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.In the recent quarter, ConocoPhillips witnessed robust performance, marked by significant achievements across its international portfolio.Financially, the company demonstrated significant global and Lower 48 production in Q3, prompting an upward revision of full-year production guidance.

ConocoPhillips: A Deep Dive into the Oil Giant's Strategic Successes and Global Footprint! - Major Drivers

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> scheme vote is on 23 November. Brookfield/EIG’s best and final offer is A$6.59 and US$1.86 per share, currently worth A$9.45.</li>
<li>With AusSuper reportedly increasing its stake past 17% on Friday, the scheme vote remains too close to call. Brookfield/EIG will need a large YES vote turnout for a successful vote.</li>
<li>If the scheme is voted down, there are mainly three Plan Bs – Brookfield/EIG’s alternate transaction structure, Board-initiated strategic review or maintaining the status quo.</li>
</ul>


The Origin Energy (ORG AU) scheme vote is on 23 November. Brookfield/EIG’s best and final offer is A$6.59 and US$1.86 per share, currently worth A$9.45.
With AusSuper reportedly increasing its stake past 17% on Friday, the scheme vote remains too close to call. Brookfield/EIG will need a large YES vote turnout for a successful vote.
If the scheme is voted down, there are mainly three Plan Bs – Brookfield/EIG’s alternate transaction structure, Board-initiated strategic review or maintaining the status quo.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On the 31st October, AustralianSuper (with 13.67% of shares out and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>'s largest shareholder) <a href="https://www.australiansuper.com/-/media/australian-super/files/about-us/media-releases/australiansuper-rejects-brookfield-bid-for-origin-energy.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">argued</a> the Brookfield/EIG-backed Consortium Offer remained substantially below its estimate of fair value.</li>
<li>Brookfield/EIG have now increased their Offer by 8% to $9.53/share from $8.81/share, which now comprises cash components of A$6.59/share and US$1.86/share. A consideration-reducing fully-franked dividend of A$0.39/share is expected.</li>
<li>
The Offer is declared "best and final." It is above the top-end of the IE's valuation range. AustralianSuper should accept the revised terms. But they say no.</li>
</ul>


On the 31st October, AustralianSuper (with 13.67% of shares out and Origin Energy (ORG AU)'s largest shareholder) argued the Brookfield/EIG-backed Consortium Offer remained substantially below its estimate of fair value.
Brookfield/EIG have now increased their Offer by 8% to $9.53/share from $8.81/share, which now comprises cash components of A$6.59/share and US$1.86/share. A consideration-reducing fully-franked dividend of A$0.39/share is expected.

The Offer is declared "best and final." It is above the top-end of the IE's valuation range. AustralianSuper should accept the revised terms. But they say no.


Origin: Brookfield Bumps. AustralianSuper Say Meh.

United States

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, liquefied natural gas and bitumen on a worldwide basis.

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Conocophillips (COP US)

Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support

Upgrading Materials $XLB to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors $XLE. $SPX and $QQQ holding above gap supports at 4983-5050 and $425...

Vermilion Research

ConocoPhillips: Will The Expansion Of LNG Operations Result In A Solid 2024? - Major Drivers

In the Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings, ConocoPhillips maintained a solid execution across all aspects of its investment mandate. The company...

Baptista Research

ConocoPhillips: A Deep Dive into the Oil Giant's Strategic Successes and Global Footprint! - Major Drivers

ConocoPhillips delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent results, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par...

Baptista Research

Origin Energy (ORG AU): State of Play

With AusSuper increasing its stake on Friday, the scheme vote remains too close to call. If the scheme fails, there are mainly three Plan Bs, which...

Arun George

Origin: Brookfield Bumps. AustralianSuper Say Meh.

Trading down 5.3% to A$8.59/share as I type. Not a great outcome for minorities. Massive uncertainty. Alongside significant downside potential. ...

David Blennerhassett

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