Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.</li>
<li>Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward</li>
<li>Longer-Term support on the S&amp;P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.</li>
</ul>


Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.
Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward
Longer-Term support on the S&amp;P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.


Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes, which has been our stance since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder.</li>
<li>Beginning with our 7/18/23 Compass, we discussed our expectation for major 1+ year breakouts on the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 (RSP), Dow, and Russell 2000 (IWM). </li>
<li>The breakouts happened later that day on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-s-p-500-equal-weight-e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32932:1" rel="noopener">RSP</a> and Dow (above $153 and 34,280, respectively), and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-russell-2000-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32964:1" rel="noopener">IWM</a> is now on the cusp of breaking out above $199.</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes, which has been our stance since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder.
Beginning with our 7/18/23 Compass, we discussed our expectation for major 1+ year breakouts on the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 (RSP), Dow, and Russell 2000 (IWM). 
The breakouts happened later that day on the RSP and Dow (above $153 and 34,280, respectively), and the IWM is now on the cusp of breaking out above $199.


Expecting Russell 2000 (IWM) Breakout Above $199; Highlighting Buys in Energy

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ConocoPhillips produced a good first quarter performance, managing an all-around beat, breaking both company and Lower 48 production milestones.</li><li>Production was outstanding, averaging 1,792,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day due to strong performance across the board.</li><li>With new wells coming online and good strong performance, Lower 48 underlying production increased by 8% year over year, reaching 1,036,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day on average.</li></ul>

ConocoPhillips produced a good first quarter performance, managing an all-around beat, breaking both company and Lower 48 production milestones.Production was outstanding, averaging 1,792,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day due to strong performance across the board.With new wells coming online and good strong performance, Lower 48 underlying production increased by 8% year over year, reaching 1,036,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day on average.

ConocoPhillips: Breaking Production Milestones Good Enough In The Current Environment? – Key Drivers

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> has entered into a binding proposal with Brookfield/EIG. The offer terms are changed to A$5.78 and US$2.19 per share. The offer is worth A$8.912 excluding dividends.</li>
<li>Since the announcement of the first indicative offer on 10 November 2022, the average implied value of the revised offer is A$8.97 per share vs A$9.00 for the previous offer.</li>
<li>ACCC approval will be the key overhang and is expected to take around six months. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 9.1%.</li>
</ul>



Origin Energy (ORG AU) has entered into a binding proposal with Brookfield/EIG. The offer terms are changed to A$5.78 and US$2.19 per share. The offer is worth A$8.912 excluding dividends.
Since the announcement of the first indicative offer on 10 November 2022, the average implied value of the revised offer is A$8.97 per share vs A$9.00 for the previous offer.
ACCC approval will be the key overhang and is expected to take around six months. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 9.1%.


Origin Energy (ORG AU): Brookfield/EIG Binding Offer; ACCC Approval the Key Risk

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>In the wake of the Aussie government's gas price intervention, the Brookfield/MidOcean consortium reduced its Offer for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a></strong> to ~A$8.90/share, down from A$9.00/share, on the 22 Feb. </li>
<li>At the time, Origin appeared supportive.  Origin and Brookfield/MidOcean have now entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed.</li>
<li>Some subtle - and more favourable to all investors - changes have been made to terms. Pricing is attractive. ACCC is the big question mark.</li>
</ul>


In the wake of the Aussie government's gas price intervention, the Brookfield/MidOcean consortium reduced its Offer for Origin Energy (ORG AU) to ~A$8.90/share, down from A$9.00/share, on the 22 Feb. 
At the time, Origin appeared supportive.  Origin and Brookfield/MidOcean have now entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed.
Some subtle - and more favourable to all investors - changes have been made to terms. Pricing is attractive. ACCC is the big question mark.


Origin Energy And Brookfield/MidOcean Enter Into Scheme Deed

United States

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, liquefied natural gas and bitumen on a worldwide basis.

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Conocophillips (COP US)

Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

$SPX broke support discussed in our Aug 8 Compass (50-day MA/4460), leading to change in character (now sell the rips) and deeper pullback. Expect...

Vermilion Research

Expecting Russell 2000 (IWM) Breakout Above $199; Highlighting Buys in Energy

Expecting Russell 2000 $IWM Breakout Above $199; Many Reasons to be Bullish; $DXY and Treasury Yields $TNX $TYX Remain Below Resistance;...

Vermilion Research

ConocoPhillips: Breaking Production Milestones Good Enough In The Current Environment? – Key Drivers

ConocoPhillips produced a good first quarter performance, managing an all-around beat, breaking both company and Lower 48 production...

Baptista Research

Origin Energy (ORG AU): Brookfield/EIG Binding Offer; ACCC Approval the Key Risk

The revised terms are reasonable. The key risk is the timing of ACCC approval. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 9.1%.

Arun George

Origin Energy And Brookfield/MidOcean Enter Into Scheme Deed

Some subtle changes have been made to terms. Pricing is attractive. ACCC is the big question mark. Trading at a 9.1% gross spread to terms. I...

David Blennerhassett

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