Asymmetric Payoffs, Thracian Capital Management

Asymmetric Payoffs

Thracian Capital Management

Macroeconomics

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility, equities, foreign exchange, commodities and credit / interest rates.

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility, equities, foreign exchange, commodities and credit / interest rates. 

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this part: Continued discussions with Strategists, Investors. ...Noble Scuttlebutt. Pacific Basin disaster. Oil Rebound Picks from last year. Continued  hucksterism at the Fed. .. and a quick update on the future of report presentations.  Are we about to get some revolutionary upgrades for off the rack software? (...and should not the Smartkarma community be ready for upgraded presentation standards?)Noble Scuttlebutt: The first item of note is the great summary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/378" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:378">Noble Group Ltd</a> and its…

In this part: Continued discussions with Strategists, Investors. ...Noble Scuttlebutt. Pacific Basin disaster. Oil Rebound Picks from last year. Continued  hucksterism at the Fed. .. and a quick update on the future of report presentations.  Are we about to get some revolutionary upgrades for off the rack software? (...and should not the Smartkarma community be ready for upgraded presentation standards?)Noble Scuttlebutt: The first item of note is the great summary of Noble Group Ltd and its…

Too Much Going On To Be Bullish (Cont.) Noble, Stock Updates

I've been doing my mid-year round up with strategists, investors and ship-owners, and while i have remained generally positive on the commodities and gold etc rebounds from whence  they came 6 months ago, I cut my equities and trade exposures by about half in the last few weeks. I moved before any blame could link to a Brexit or a terror attack because ultimately the money made trading from the lows of 1Q16 could find zero support in [real] data or logic. Below i also review HK strategy, Noble…

I've been doing my mid-year round up with strategists, investors and ship-owners, and while i have remained generally positive on the commodities and gold etc rebounds from whence  they came 6 months ago, I cut my equities and trade exposures by about half in the last few weeks. I moved before any blame could link to a Brexit or a terror attack because ultimately the money made trading from the lows of 1Q16 could find zero support in [real] data or logic. Below i also review HK strategy, Noble…

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Underperformance continues as markets look past near-term earnings<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/009/135/original/t1.JPG?1465610335" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="9135"></figure> • The surge in the seaborne crude trade – a result of continued supply glut and low crude prices boosted the fortunes of tanker shipping companies in 2015; tanker operators reported a sharp growth in topline and registered multi-fold increase in earnings and profitability. The year gone by was one of the best for the industry since the GFC in 2008-09 as freight rates remained firm throughout the year; with occasional seasonal…

Underperformance continues as markets look past near-term earnings • The surge in the seaborne crude trade – a result of continued supply glut and low crude prices boosted the fortunes of tanker shipping companies in 2015; tanker operators reported a sharp growth in topline and registered multi-fold increase in earnings and profitability. The year gone by was one of the best for the industry since the GFC in 2008-09 as freight rates remained firm throughout the year; with occasional seasonal…

The rebound in crude oil and gas prices brought some solace to shareholders of gas shipping companies as stocks of LNG and LPG operators started trending up. Nonetheless, investors have been discreet while backing a company. Since the start of the year, Gaslog in the LNG shipping and StealthGas among the LPG ship operators have yielded handsome returns. We believe attractive valuation was one of the driving factor, which led investors to bottom fishing.<ul><li>LPG shipping – US ethylene plants to aid handysize vessels</li><li>LPG shipping – downside capped in coaster segment</li><li>LNG shipping remains subdued, but will improve from 2018</li><li>Chinese effect – gaining prominence in gas shipping, </li><li>China natural gas demand to show steady rise</li><li>China needs additional LNG to meet its growing natural gas demand</li><li>Chinese effect – New shipping capacity required for growing imports</li><li>Chinese LPG consumption is also expected to increase</li></ul>

The rebound in crude oil and gas prices brought some solace to shareholders of gas shipping companies as stocks of LNG and LPG operators started trending up. Nonetheless, investors have been discreet while backing a company. Since the start of the year, Gaslog in the LNG shipping and StealthGas among the LPG ship operators have yielded handsome returns. We believe attractive valuation was one of the driving factor, which led investors to bottom fishing.LPG shipping – US ethylene plants to aid handysize vesselsLPG shipping – downside capped in coaster segmentLNG shipping remains subdued, but will improve from 2018Chinese effect – gaining prominence in gas shipping, China natural gas demand to show steady riseChina needs additional LNG to meet its growing natural gas demandChinese effect – New shipping capacity required for growing importsChinese LPG consumption is also expected to increase

Gas Shipping - Gaining Traction Amid Recovery in Oil Prices

United States

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, liquefied natural gas and bitumen on a worldwide basis.

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Conocophillips (COP US)

Market Commentary (June 2016)

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility,...

Asymmetric Payoffs

Too Much Going On To Be Bullish (Cont.) Noble, Stock Updates

In this part: Continued discussions with Strategists, Investors. ...Noble Scuttlebutt. Pacific Basin disaster. Oil Rebound Picks from last year....

Charles De Trenck

Too Much Going On To Be Bullish

I've been doing my mid-year round up with strategists, investors and ship-owners, and while i have remained generally positive on the commodities...

Charles De Trenck

Tanker Shipping - Stocks Going Nowhere?

Underperformance continues as markets look past near-term earnings • The surge in the seaborne crude trade – a result of continued supply glut and...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Gas Shipping - Gaining Traction Amid Recovery in Oil Prices

The rebound in crude oil and gas prices brought some solace to shareholders of gas shipping companies as stocks of LNG and LPG operators started...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)