Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime</li>
</ul>


Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.
We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime


Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 21/Feb, U.S. crude inventories dropped by 2.3m barrels, contradicting expectations of a 2.5m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose, while distillate stocks surged more than expected.</li>
<li>U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 261 Bcf for the week ending 21/Feb, lower than analyst expectations of a 276 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>BP pivots back to fossil fuels, cutting renewables and reducing its quarterly buyback to USD 0.75 billion from USD 1.75 billion. President Trump revoked Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 21/Feb, U.S. crude inventories dropped by 2.3m barrels, contradicting expectations of a 2.5m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose, while distillate stocks surged more than expected.
U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 261 Bcf for the week ending 21/Feb, lower than analyst expectations of a 276 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.
BP pivots back to fossil fuels, cutting renewables and reducing its quarterly buyback to USD 0.75 billion from USD 1.75 billion. President Trump revoked Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela.


[ETP 2025/09] WTI Drops on Trade Tensions, Henry Hub Falls to Forecasts of Milder Temperatures

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

Venture Global LNG / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Largest Cash Raise for a company since July 2024 marking important event for Equity Capital Markets to start the calendar year</li>
<li>Rising and volatile natural gas prices combined with rich valuation nearly prices company to perfection</li>
<li>Deal color for potential price sensitive IPOs is crucial in determining near-term performance</li>
</ul>


Largest Cash Raise for a company since July 2024 marking important event for Equity Capital Markets to start the calendar year
Rising and volatile natural gas prices combined with rich valuation nearly prices company to perfection
Deal color for potential price sensitive IPOs is crucial in determining near-term performance


Venture Global (VG): Rich Valuation Marks Questions About Being Already Priced for Perfection

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

Apollo Global Management  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>The rankings used for the December 2024 index rebal event will be based on yesterday's (4th December 2024) opening prices. Announcement date will be 6 December after the close.</li>
<li>Inside we take a final look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the upcoming review. </li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
The rankings used for the December 2024 index rebal event will be based on yesterday's (4th December 2024) opening prices. Announcement date will be 6 December after the close.
Inside we take a final look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the upcoming review. 


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24 Rebal - Final Predictions

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The third quarter 2024 earnings for ConocoPhillips showcased robust financial and operational performance headlined by surpassing its production targets and detailing plans regarding its impending acquisition of Marathon Oil.</li><li>The substantial strategic maneuvers underscore ConocoPhillips' stance in bolstering its market position and opulently rewarding its shareholders.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

The third quarter 2024 earnings for ConocoPhillips showcased robust financial and operational performance headlined by surpassing its production targets and detailing plans regarding its impending acquisition of Marathon Oil.The substantial strategic maneuvers underscore ConocoPhillips' stance in bolstering its market position and opulently rewarding its shareholders.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

ConocoPhillips: An Analysis Of How They Are Achieving Operational Excellence & Production Growth! - Major Drivers

United States

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, liquefied natural gas and bitumen on a worldwide basis.

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Conocophillips (COP US)

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

[ETP 2025/09] WTI Drops on Trade Tensions, Henry Hub Falls to Forecasts of Milder Temperatures

US oil inventories drop, defying expectations. Natural gas inventories fall below analyst predictions. BP shifts focus back to fossil fuels, Trump...

Mint Finance

Venture Global (VG): Rich Valuation Marks Questions About Being Already Priced for Perfection

Significant cash raise for company signals strong start for Equity Capital Markets in 2024, but potential IPOs must carefully consider deal...

IPO Boutique

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24 Rebal - Final Predictions

The S&P500/400/600 rebal data "fixed" on 4 Dec open. The announcement will be made post-close 6 Dec. Applovin is up 900% in a year and is a top...

Travis Lundy

ConocoPhillips: An Analysis Of How They Are Achieving Operational Excellence & Production Growth! - Major Drivers

The third quarter 2024 earnings for ConocoPhillips showcased robust financial and operational performance headlined by surpassing its production...

Baptista Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

[ETP 2025/09] WTI Drops on Trade Tensions, Henry Hub Falls to Forecasts of Milder Temperatures

​US oil inventories drop, defying expectations. Natural gas inventories fall below analyst predictions. BP shifts focus back to fossil fuels, Trump...

Mint Finance

Venture Global (VG): Rich Valuation Marks Questions About Being Already Priced for Perfection

​Significant cash raise for company signals strong start for Equity Capital Markets in 2024, but potential IPOs must carefully consider deal...

IPO Boutique

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24 Rebal - Final Predictions

The S&P500/400/600 rebal data "fixed" on 4 Dec open. The announcement will be made post-close 6 Dec. Applovin is up 900% in a year and is a top...

Travis Lundy

ConocoPhillips: An Analysis Of How They Are Achieving Operational Excellence & Production Growth! - Major Drivers

The third quarter 2024 earnings for ConocoPhillips showcased robust financial and operational performance headlined by surpassing its production...

Baptista Research

US oil inventories drop, defying expectations. Natural gas inventories fall below analyst predictions. BP shifts focus back to fossil fuels, Trump...

Significant cash raise for company signals strong start for Equity Capital Markets in 2024, but potential IPOs must carefully consider deal...