Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 10th October, the ACCC cleared Brookfield to take over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>. </li>
<li>The transaction still needs shareholder approval and AustralianSuper with its too-big-to-ignore 13.68% stake reckons terms are below long-term value.</li>
<li>The Scheme Booklet is out with a 23 November Scheme Meeting. The IE backs out a fair value range of $8.45-$9.48/share, but as at June 30. A bump is imminent.</li>
</ul>


On 10th October, the ACCC cleared Brookfield to take over Origin Energy (ORG AU). 
The transaction still needs shareholder approval and AustralianSuper with its too-big-to-ignore 13.68% stake reckons terms are below long-term value.
The Scheme Booklet is out with a 23 November Scheme Meeting. The IE backs out a fair value range of $8.45-$9.48/share, but as at June 30. A bump is imminent.


Origin/Brookfield: Bump Expected Ahead Of 23 Nov Scheme Meeting

<ul>
<li>Brookfield Asset Management/MidOcean Energy's tilt for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, faced two major hurdles. </li>
<li>The first was ACCC approval. Not just over competition issues, but also the perceived/apparent public benefit from Brookfield's future commitment to renewable generation. ACCC has now cleared the transaction. 
</li>
<li>The second is currying favour with shareholders, several of whom, including AustralianSuper (13.68% stake), reckon the Offer is substantially below long-term value. This needs a bump.</li>
</ul>


Brookfield Asset Management/MidOcean Energy's tilt for Origin Energy (ORG AU), faced two major hurdles. 
The first was ACCC approval. Not just over competition issues, but also the perceived/apparent public benefit from Brookfield's future commitment to renewable generation. ACCC has now cleared the transaction. 

The second is currying favour with shareholders, several of whom, including AustralianSuper (13.68% stake), reckon the Offer is substantially below long-term value. This needs a bump.


Origin/Brookfield: ACCC Rubber Stamped. Now Shareholders Will Have Their Say

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ConocoPhillips delivered a disappointing set of results as the company was unable to meet the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.</li><li>The company executed several significant agreements and acquisitions, including purchasing the remaining 50% of Surmont, a valuable asset expected to contribute substantial free cash flow.</li><li>Despite commodity price volatility, the company delivered an underlying solid performance, achieving significant global and Lower 48 production and raising yearly production guidance.</li></ul>

ConocoPhillips delivered a disappointing set of results as the company was unable to meet the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.The company executed several significant agreements and acquisitions, including purchasing the remaining 50% of Surmont, a valuable asset expected to contribute substantial free cash flow.Despite commodity price volatility, the company delivered an underlying solid performance, achieving significant global and Lower 48 production and raising yearly production guidance.

ConocoPhillips: Resilience Amidst Volatility - The Road to Value Creation! - Major Drivers

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Brookfield Asset Management/MidOcean Energy in late March, the ACCC approval process has played out in the public eye.</li>
<li>And it hasn't been all beer and Skittles for the Offerors. Not just on competition issues. But also the perceived/apparent public benefit from Brookfield's future commitment to renewable generation.  </li>
<li>All the while, the ACCC recently blocked <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australia-and-new-zealand-banking-group-anz" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:443:1" rel="noopener">ANZ (ANZ AU)</a>’s acquisition of Suncorp Bank, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telstra-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:690:1" rel="noopener">Telstra Corp (TLS AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tpg-telecom-ltd-5b64c473-761f-4a0a-a7f9-95770efefa20" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30984:1" rel="noopener">TPG Telecom (TPG AU)</a>'s mobile network sharing deal. </li>
</ul>


After Origin Energy (ORG AU) entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Brookfield Asset Management/MidOcean Energy in late March, the ACCC approval process has played out in the public eye.
And it hasn't been all beer and Skittles for the Offerors. Not just on competition issues. But also the perceived/apparent public benefit from Brookfield's future commitment to renewable generation.  
All the while, the ACCC recently blocked ANZ (ANZ AU)’s acquisition of Suncorp Bank, and Telstra Corp (TLS AU)/TPG Telecom (TPG AU)'s mobile network sharing deal. 


Origin Energy: ACCC's Concerns And Brookfield's Quid Pro Quo

<ul><li>ConocoPhillips produced a good first quarter performance, managing an all-around beat, breaking both company and Lower 48 production milestones.</li><li>Production was outstanding, averaging 1,792,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day due to strong performance across the board.</li><li>With new wells coming online and good strong performance, Lower 48 underlying production increased by 8% year over year, reaching 1,036,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day on average.</li></ul>

ConocoPhillips produced a good first quarter performance, managing an all-around beat, breaking both company and Lower 48 production milestones.Production was outstanding, averaging 1,792,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day due to strong performance across the board.With new wells coming online and good strong performance, Lower 48 underlying production increased by 8% year over year, reaching 1,036,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day on average.

ConocoPhillips: Breaking Production Milestones Good Enough In The Current Environment? – Key Drivers

United States

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, liquefied natural gas and bitumen on a worldwide basis.

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Conocophillips (COP US)

Origin/Brookfield: Bump Expected Ahead Of 23 Nov Scheme Meeting

There's ~5% from a bump. If you can take advantage of franking credits (attached to the special divvie), this is still attractive. But, if not...

David Blennerhassett

Origin/Brookfield: ACCC Rubber Stamped. Now Shareholders Will Have Their Say

Shares are up 4.5% today to A$9.15, as I type, suggesting ~7% upside to a possible A$9.80/share revised Offer. I'd be picking up shares around here.

David Blennerhassett

ConocoPhillips: Resilience Amidst Volatility - The Road to Value Creation! - Major Drivers

ConocoPhillips delivered a disappointing set of results as the company was unable to meet the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall...

Baptista Research

Origin Energy: ACCC's Concerns And Brookfield's Quid Pro Quo

The integrated energy play is trading at a healthy 5.1% gross spread to terms, with an off-ramp perhaps mid-1Q24. I would be a buyer around here.

David Blennerhassett

ConocoPhillips: Breaking Production Milestones Good Enough In The Current Environment? – Key Drivers

ConocoPhillips produced a good first quarter performance, managing an all-around beat, breaking both company and Lower 48 production...

Baptista Research

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