Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling.</li>
<li>From our portfolio, you will also know that we have been moving towards a boomer composition and in the following short note we’ll try to support that thesis.</li>
<li> Why would the curve slope back our boomer position?</li>
</ul>


As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling.
From our portfolio, you will also know that we have been moving towards a boomer composition and in the following short note we’ll try to support that thesis.
 Why would the curve slope back our boomer position?


Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul>
<li>What a week in global fixed income! We thankfully rotated out of bonds and into cyclical exposures in steepeners, commodities, energy and materials ahead of the worst storm and the big question is now whether this is just a “hump” or the start of a broad steepening trend.</li>
<li>In last week’s Portfolio Watch we declared that we anticipated a steepening curve:”Many are urgently discussing the ramifications of the BoJ move to push the band on the YCC.</li>
<li>With equities already looking frothy and volatility being low we may see some reversal near term – or perhaps stonks just carry on their insufferable streak and shorts keep getting wiped out as shares are sold to buy cheap calls.</li>
</ul>


What a week in global fixed income! We thankfully rotated out of bonds and into cyclical exposures in steepeners, commodities, energy and materials ahead of the worst storm and the big question is now whether this is just a “hump” or the start of a broad steepening trend.
In last week’s Portfolio Watch we declared that we anticipated a steepening curve:”Many are urgently discussing the ramifications of the BoJ move to push the band on the YCC.
With equities already looking frothy and volatility being low we may see some reversal near term – or perhaps stonks just carry on their insufferable streak and shorts keep getting wiped out as shares are sold to buy cheap calls.


Portfolio Watch: Steep, Steeper, Steepest!

<ul>
<li>In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action before anyone else has given it any noteworthy attention.</li>
<li>This week we look at four reasons why the curve steepener is now the trend to watch! There are four reasons for the USD curve steepening now</li>
<li>The issuance profile will move towards longer durations, the BoJ decision has decreased Japanese incentives to buy USTs, the Manufacturing rebound will add to steepening pressures, positioning is already loaded with duration</li>
</ul>


In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action before anyone else has given it any noteworthy attention.
This week we look at four reasons why the curve steepener is now the trend to watch! There are four reasons for the USD curve steepening now
The issuance profile will move towards longer durations, the BoJ decision has decreased Japanese incentives to buy USTs, the Manufacturing rebound will add to steepening pressures, positioning is already loaded with duration


Out of the Box #14: 4 Reasons Why Curve Steepening Is Now on the Cards

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>As we conclude this week’s Central Bank Bonanza, we believe it is pertinent to share some of the soft data charts we are closely monitoring while assessing the outlook for the upcoming quarters.</li>
<li>The wisdom of the crowds, often overlooked, can offer an interesting perspective for financial markets currently processing the latest rate decisions.</li>
<li>In the coming days, we plan to offer a more comprehensive take as to how we see things going in the coming quarters and how we would choose to ideally play it.</li>
</ul>


As we conclude this week’s Central Bank Bonanza, we believe it is pertinent to share some of the soft data charts we are closely monitoring while assessing the outlook for the upcoming quarters.
The wisdom of the crowds, often overlooked, can offer an interesting perspective for financial markets currently processing the latest rate decisions.
In the coming days, we plan to offer a more comprehensive take as to how we see things going in the coming quarters and how we would choose to ideally play it.


Consumer Watch: Is the FED & ECB Nudging the Same Herd? 5 Charts We Watch

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

NASDAQ Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since January 2023 we've anticipated for 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.</li>
<li>In our 5/2/23 Compass we discussed how the Nasdaq Composite was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 is possible.</li>
<li>The Nasdaq Composite hit 13,154 Tuesday as Technology (XLK), and to a lesser extent Communications (XLC), are seemingly in a blowoff stage, while all other Sectors are neutral to bearish.</li>
</ul>


Since January 2023 we've anticipated for 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.
In our 5/2/23 Compass we discussed how the Nasdaq Composite was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 is possible.
The Nasdaq Composite hit 13,154 Tuesday as Technology (XLK), and to a lesser extent Communications (XLC), are seemingly in a blowoff stage, while all other Sectors are neutral to bearish.


Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

United States

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index holding primarily large capitalization companies domiciled in the US. The ETF weights its holdings using a modified market cap approach, generally investing at least 95% of its assets in the index

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Consumer Discretionary Select (XLY US)

Curve Steepeners and the Boomer Trade

As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling. From our portfolio, you will also...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Steep, Steeper, Steepest!

What a week in global fixed income! We thankfully rotated out of bonds and into cyclical exposures in steepeners, commodities, energy and...

Steno Research

Out of the Box #14: 4 Reasons Why Curve Steepening Is Now on the Cards

In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action...

Steno Research

Consumer Watch: Is the FED & ECB Nudging the Same Herd? 5 Charts We Watch

As we conclude this week’s Central Bank Bonanza, we believe it is pertinent to share some of the soft data charts we are closely monitoring while...

Steno Research

Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

5/2/23 we discussed how $Nasdaq Comp was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 was possible. It hit 13,154 Tuesday as...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)