Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Key support levels we have been monitoring (the 200-day MAs on the S&amp;P 500 and equal-weighted S&amp;P 500) have failed to hold, something we noted as increasingly likely in last week’s Compass. Despite the break below support, the move lower has been orderly but technical indications remain mixed. The weight of the evidence leads us to remain cautious. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Financials: Large-Cap and Small-Cap Gold, and Large-Cap and Small-Cap Property &amp; Casualty Insurance.

Key support levels we have been monitoring (the 200-day MAs on the S&amp;P 500 and equal-weighted S&amp;P 500) have failed to hold, something we noted as increasingly likely in last week’s Compass. Despite the break below support, the move lower has been orderly but technical indications remain mixed. The weight of the evidence leads us to remain cautious. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Financials: Large-Cap and Small-Cap Gold, and Large-Cap and Small-Cap Property &amp; Casualty Insurance.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Technical Indications Mixed; Outlook Remains Cautious

As we write this, the tweet from President Trump regarding an imminent spike in tariffs on Chinese goods has caught financial markets around the world off guard. We believe the reactions are likely just a flash in the pan. This tweet, like many others, should be taken as nothing more than negotiation tactics lifted right out of a chapter from “The Art of the Deal”. We have been subjected to untold Tweets in the last few years and the reactions generally seem to have been about as long-lived as their character count. Despite the noise, the markets remain on a firm footing.  In our Macro Vision publication, we lay out our U.S. equity investment thesis and provide a technical appraisal of the market Sector by Sector, along with attractive investment opportunities within each.

As we write this, the tweet from President Trump regarding an imminent spike in tariffs on Chinese goods has caught financial markets around the world off guard. We believe the reactions are likely just a flash in the pan. This tweet, like many others, should be taken as nothing more than negotiation tactics lifted right out of a chapter from “The Art of the Deal”. We have been subjected to untold Tweets in the last few years and the reactions generally seem to have been about as long-lived as their character count. Despite the noise, the markets remain on a firm footing.  In our Macro Vision publication, we lay out our U.S. equity investment thesis and provide a technical appraisal of the market Sector by Sector, along with attractive investment opportunities within each.

U.S. Equity Strategy: The Tweet Heard ‘Round the World

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

S&amp;P key outside day reversal sets the tone for a correction as the RSI is now breaking below trend support and a key downside trigger. This is the second reversal registered in the key 2,815-20 macro pivot zone.Uptick resistance points below 2,820 are laid out as well as downsize pivot levels that once broken would induce a higher momentum decline.Any break above SPX 2,820 would induce a short squeeze and we outlined a sector pair that would reward in such an event.From now until the end of March it will be hard for bull momentum to remain intact given the bulk of good news is now priced in.

S&amp;P key outside day reversal sets the tone for a correction as the RSI is now breaking below trend support and a key downside trigger. This is the second reversal registered in the key 2,815-20 macro pivot zone.Uptick resistance points below 2,820 are laid out as well as downsize pivot levels that once broken would induce a higher momentum decline.Any break above SPX 2,820 would induce a short squeeze and we outlined a sector pair that would reward in such an event.From now until the end of March it will be hard for bull momentum to remain intact given the bulk of good news is now priced in.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

In this report we detail our U.S. investment thesis and provide a detailed technical appraisal of the broad market, as well as highlighting attractive investment opportunities within each of our 12 Sectors.

In this report we detail our U.S. investment thesis and provide a detailed technical appraisal of the broad market, as well as highlighting attractive investment opportunities within each of our 12 Sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Defensive Areas Weakening; Broad Market Attempting to Bottom

Health Care Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

Our insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/core-us-sectors-leading-an-s-p-major-support-break" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:26732">Core US Sectors Leading an S&amp;P Major Support Break</a> outlined the lead breaks in small caps, financials and transports that signals a break lower in the S&amp;P.We now turn to the last bastion of strength that would induce a high momentum decline below SPX 2,550. Defensive sectors in the US now face late cycle selling now that core lead sectors are breaking lower.US healthcare and consumer staples have been a core outperform pair over being short the S&amp;P and has served us well with ominous peak signals in the making.US healthcare ETF (XLV) chart is used as the safe haven proxy that would induce a big inflection point for US equities.

Our insight Core US Sectors Leading an S&amp;P Major Support Break outlined the lead breaks in small caps, financials and transports that signals a break lower in the S&amp;P.We now turn to the last bastion of strength that would induce a high momentum decline below SPX 2,550. Defensive sectors in the US now face late cycle selling now that core lead sectors are breaking lower.US healthcare and consumer staples have been a core outperform pair over being short the S&amp;P and has served us well with ominous peak signals in the making.US healthcare ETF (XLV) chart is used as the safe haven proxy that would induce a big inflection point for US equities.

This Is the Chart that Would Cause a Mini Crash in the US

United States

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks The Consumer Staples Select Sector Index. The ETF holds large cap consumer staples stocks. Its holdings include cosmetic and personal care, pharmaceuticals, soft drinks, tobacco and food products. The ETF weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP US)

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Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Technical Indications Mixed; Outlook Remains Cautious

Key support levels we have been monitoring (the 200-day MAs on the S&P 500 and equal-weighted S&P 500) have failed to hold, something we...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: The Tweet Heard ‘Round the World

As we write this, the tweet from President Trump regarding an imminent spike in tariffs on Chinese goods has caught financial markets around the...

Vermilion Research

S&P Directional Break Points

S&P key outside day reversal sets the tone for a correction as the RSI is now breaking below trend support and a key downside trigger. This is...

Thomas Schroeder

U.S. Equity Strategy: Defensive Areas Weakening; Broad Market Attempting to Bottom

In this report we detail our U.S. investment thesis and provide a detailed technical appraisal of the broad market, as well as highlighting...

Vermilion Research

This Is the Chart that Would Cause a Mini Crash in the US

Our insight Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break outlined the lead breaks in small caps, financials and transports that signals a...

Thomas Schroeder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)