Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7507-7580 holds.</li>
<li>We also remain bullish on Technology and A.I. areas (XLK, SOXX, DRAM), and we have Technology on watch for a potential upgrade to overweight.</li>
<li>The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the XLK are both breaking out of their 4-month bases, a very bullish sign as long as $745 and $197 supports hold on any pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7507-7580 holds.
We also remain bullish on Technology and A.I. areas (XLK, SOXX, DRAM), and we have Technology on watch for a potential upgrade to overweight.
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the XLK are both breaking out of their 4-month bases, a very bullish sign as long as $745 and $197 supports hold on any pullbacks.


Nasdaq 100 and Technology (XLK) With 4-Month Base Breakouts; Downgrading Staples to Underweight

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway, Odd Lots

Odd Lots

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>McDonald's uses price pack architecture with varying prices for different purchasing methods</li><li>Pricing strategies raise questions about fairness, data privacy, and macroeconomic implications</li><li>Surge pricing in fast food is already present, similar to dynamic pricing in other industries</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

McDonald's uses price pack architecture with varying prices for different purchasing methodsPricing strategies raise questions about fairness, data privacy, and macroeconomic implicationsSurge pricing in fast food is already present, similar to dynamic pricing in other industriesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Corporations Learned The Maximum Amount They Can Charge For a Product

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>, S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.</li>
<li>Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/consumer-staples-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27536:1" rel="noopener">XLP</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">XLK</a>.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.
The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.
Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the XLP and XLK.


Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). </li>
<li>With that said, QQQ violated $695 support, a concerning sign; $681-$686 support must hold on QQQ or we will downgrade it.</li>
<li>We continue to believe a consolidation or a continuation of short-term downtrends is likely through mid-to-late-August amid choppy price action for semiconductors (SOXX), memory (DRAM), and optical equipment/photonics (EUV) names.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). 
With that said, QQQ violated $695 support, a concerning sign; $681-$686 support must hold on QQQ or we will downgrade it.
We continue to believe a consolidation or a continuation of short-term downtrends is likely through mid-to-late-August amid choppy price action for semiconductors (SOXX), memory (DRAM), and optical equipment/photonics (EUV) names.


Upgrading Health Care and Consumer Staples to Market Weight; Monitoring Tech for a Downgrade

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $255-$257 on IWM continue to hold</li>
<li>We see deterioration in market dynamics, and while we still expect a period of consolidation/pullback, aforementioned support levels need to break to give us confidence that the pullback has begun.</li>
<li>We are upgrading Staples (XLP) to overweight, and we are downgrading Services to underweight</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $255-$257 on IWM continue to hold
We see deterioration in market dynamics, and while we still expect a period of consolidation/pullback, aforementioned support levels need to break to give us confidence that the pullback has begun.
We are upgrading Staples (XLP) to overweight, and we are downgrading Services to underweight


Upgrading Staples to Overweight; Downgrading Services. Still Cautious; Market Dynamics Deteriorating

United States

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks The Consumer Staples Select Sector Index. The ETF holds large cap consumer staples stocks. Its holdings include cosmetic and personal care, pharmaceuticals, soft drinks, tobacco and food products. The ETF weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP US)

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Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP US)

Nasdaq 100 and Technology (XLK) With 4-Month Base Breakouts; Downgrading Staples to Underweight

Nasdaq 100 $QQQ and Technology $XLK With 4-Month Base Breakouts; That is bullish as long as supports of $745 on QQQ and $197 on XLK hold on any...

Vermilion Research

Corporations Learned The Maximum Amount They Can Charge For a Product

Odd Lots podcast explores pricing strategies, including McDonald's variable pricing based on ordering methods, with discussions on fairness, value...

Odd Lots

Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

US$300bn tracks the Select Sector Indices. Implementation of proposed changes will set off a US$35bn trade. Apple could be bought by multiple...

Brian Freitas

Upgrading Health Care and Consumer Staples to Market Weight; Monitoring Tech for a Downgrade

Upgrading Health Care $XLV and Consumer Staples $XLP to Market Weight; Monitoring Tech $XLK for a Downgrade. $LLY $JNJ $ABBV $MRK $NVS $ABT $NVO...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Staples to Overweight; Downgrading Services. Still Cautious; Market Dynamics Deteriorating

Upgrading Staples $XLP to Overweight; Downgrading Services. Cautious $SPX $QQQ; Market Dynamics Deteriorating as Defensives Take the Lead $XLU...

Vermilion Research

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