New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>March 2024 was a good month for Manawa Energy (MNW), electricity demand, and solar developers. It wasn’t such a good month for EV dealers.</li><li>MNW was the strongest performing electricity stock in March 2024 following its guidance upgrade.</li><li>Strong electricity demand growth continues and now appears to be a trend which is positive for medium-term pricing, although continued big falls in solar panel prices will help offset some of those pricing effects. </li></ul></div></div></div></div>

March 2024 was a good month for Manawa Energy (MNW), electricity demand, and solar developers. It wasn’t such a good month for EV dealers.MNW was the strongest performing electricity stock in March 2024 following its guidance upgrade.Strong electricity demand growth continues and now appears to be a trend which is positive for medium-term pricing, although continued big falls in solar panel prices will help offset some of those pricing effects. 

Power Points - Demand Is Trending Upwards — April 2024

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Quarterly reports released in February 2024 from the wind turbine manufacturers suggest prices are starting to ease, which would be welcome news for wind developers.</li><li>1H24 results reported by the big four generator/retailers contained few surprises but did highlight ongoing opex and consenting challenges, with opex generally negatively surprising and delays to several projects.</li><li>Generator/retailer share prices generally remain elevated, in particular Mercury (MCY) which is trading just short of record highs. </li></ul></div></div></div></div>

Quarterly reports released in February 2024 from the wind turbine manufacturers suggest prices are starting to ease, which would be welcome news for wind developers.1H24 results reported by the big four generator/retailers contained few surprises but did highlight ongoing opex and consenting challenges, with opex generally negatively surprising and delays to several projects.Generator/retailer share prices generally remain elevated, in particular Mercury (MCY) which is trading just short of record highs. 

Power Points -  Wind Regaining Its Puff? — March 2024

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a> has disclosed a non-binding scheme proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electric-power-development-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:292:1" rel="noopener">Electric Power Development C (9513 JP)</a> at A$0.275, a 48.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.185.</li>
<li>If the scheme fails, J-Power will launch an off-market takeover offer with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition at A$0.270 per share. The dual-track bid is meant to counter Skip's stake.</li>
<li>The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 31 March. The offer is attractive, but the scheme's completion hinges on Skip Capital’s acceptance.  </li>
</ul>



Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) has disclosed a non-binding scheme proposal from Electric Power Development C (9513 JP) at A$0.275, a 48.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.185.
If the scheme fails, J-Power will launch an off-market takeover offer with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition at A$0.270 per share. The dual-track bid is meant to counter Skip's stake.
The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 31 March. The offer is attractive, but the scheme's completion hinges on Skip Capital’s acceptance.  


Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Dual-Track Non-Binding Proposal

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Contact Energy (CEN) reported a record half year 1H24 EBITDAF result as expected, albeit only just.</li><li>The NZ$323m result (after market making losses) was up +27% on 1H23, with stronger retail and wholesale electricity prices the main driver.</li><li>CEN lifted FY24 EBITDAF guidance, with better retail pricing the key factor, although guidance looks conservative in light of the strong January 2024 operating performance. </li></ul>

Contact Energy (CEN) reported a record half year 1H24 EBITDAF result as expected, albeit only just.The NZ$323m result (after market making losses) was up +27% on 1H23, with stronger retail and wholesale electricity prices the main driver.CEN lifted FY24 EBITDAF guidance, with better retail pricing the key factor, although guidance looks conservative in light of the strong January 2024 operating performance. 

Contact Energy - Pipeline ConFIDence — 1H24 Result

<ul><li>For the first time in three years we are moving our WACC assumptions down.</li><li>This is driven by a modestly lower (-25 bps) interpolated 10-year interest rate assumption; our proxy for the risk free rate.</li><li>We also incorporate our C&amp;ESG ratings into our WACC assumptions. We do this on an overall neutral basis, with a scale of -25 bps to +25 bps added to the cost of equity. </li></ul>

For the first time in three years we are moving our WACC assumptions down.This is driven by a modestly lower (-25 bps) interpolated 10-year interest rate assumption; our proxy for the risk free rate.We also incorporate our C&amp;ESG ratings into our WACC assumptions. We do this on an overall neutral basis, with a scale of -25 bps to +25 bps added to the cost of equity. 

Equity Strategy - WACC Review; a Lower Rfr and Adding C&ESG

New Zealand

Contact Energy Limited is a diversified and integrated energy company which focuses on the generation of electricity and the sale of electricity and gas in New Zealand.

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Contact Energy (CEN NZ)

Power Points - Wind Regaining Its Puff? — March 2024

Quarterly reports released in February 2024 from the wind turbine manufacturers suggest prices are starting to ease, which would be welcome news...

Forsyth Barr

Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Dual-Track Non-Binding Proposal

The NBIO is attractive, but the scheme's completion hinges on Skip’s acceptance. The off-market takeover is the floor price, as the minimum...

Arun George

Contact Energy - Pipeline ConFIDence — 1H24 Result

CEN lifted FY24 EBITDAF guidance, with better retail pricing the key factor, although guidance looks conservative in light of the strong January...

Forsyth Barr

Equity Strategy - WACC Review; a Lower Rfr and Adding C&ESG

For the first time in three years we are moving our WACC assumptions down. This is driven by a modestly lower (-25 bps) interpolated 10-year...

Forsyth Barr

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