New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>First trading of 2026 ASX futures shows only a small decline from 2025 prices</li><li>Cold snap at the beginning of September 2022 highlights the need for gas-peaking plant</li><li>If the fixed interest market is right, electricity stocks are expensive</li></ul>

First trading of 2026 ASX futures shows only a small decline from 2025 pricesCold snap at the beginning of September 2022 highlights the need for gas-peaking plantIf the fixed interest market is right, electricity stocks are expensive

Power Points: Wild Wholesale Price Ride — October 2022

<ul><li>Electricity share prices have not responded to lift in interest rates: The 10-year swap rate is back above 4.0%, ending August at 4.1% and is currently 4.3%</li><li>August 2022 rounded off a wet winter, bigger development pipelines revealed</li><li>New GNE market security option (MSO) unlikely to excite the market, but may lift peak wholesale electricity prices</li></ul>

Electricity share prices have not responded to lift in interest rates: The 10-year swap rate is back above 4.0%, ending August at 4.1% and is currently 4.3%August 2022 rounded off a wet winter, bigger development pipelines revealedNew GNE market security option (MSO) unlikely to excite the market, but may lift peak wholesale electricity prices

Power Points: Lakes and Valuations Full— September 2022

<ul><li>A huge generation month for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mighty-river-power/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MCY</a>, heavy inflows ease pressure on wholesale electricity prices heading into back half of winter</li><li>Climate Change Commission suggest changes to lift the carbon price, note potential impact on renewable generators earnings</li><li>FY22 reporting season — Earnings recover thanks to improved hydro generation, future developments to be the focus </li></ul>

A huge generation month for MCY, heavy inflows ease pressure on wholesale electricity prices heading into back half of winterClimate Change Commission suggest changes to lift the carbon price, note potential impact on renewable generators earningsFY22 reporting season — Earnings recover thanks to improved hydro generation, future developments to be the focus 

Power Points: Lakes Enjoy a Timely Top Up — August 2022

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>All else equal, we estimate the share-price-implied valuation of CDC is ~NZ$11bn (IFT’s ~50% stake), or ~15x current contracted EV/EBITDA.</li><li>CDC has material uncontracted capacity under construction that it can deliver into a capacity-constrained market with strong demand.</li><li>We believe CDC and data centres provide attractive exposure to the growth of the AI ecosystem.</li></ul>

All else equal, we estimate the share-price-implied valuation of CDC is ~NZ$11bn (IFT’s ~50% stake), or ~15x current contracted EV/EBITDA.CDC has material uncontracted capacity under construction that it can deliver into a capacity-constrained market with strong demand.We believe CDC and data centres provide attractive exposure to the growth of the AI ecosystem.

<ul><li>Meridian Energy (MEL) delivered a record June 2026 and a record 4Q26 to cap a remarkable FY26 turnaround from FY25.</li><li>Favourable operating conditions reduced the need for expensive hedges as sales volumes and margins continued to grow.</li><li>While we have pulled back our medium-term outlook slightly on lower ASX futures prices, we upgrade MEL to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM following recent soft share price performance that has seen MEL underperform the market by -8.6% in the past six weeks.</li></ul>

Meridian Energy (MEL) delivered a record June 2026 and a record 4Q26 to cap a remarkable FY26 turnaround from FY25.Favourable operating conditions reduced the need for expensive hedges as sales volumes and margins continued to grow.While we have pulled back our medium-term outlook slightly on lower ASX futures prices, we upgrade MEL to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM following recent soft share price performance that has seen MEL underperform the market by -8.6% in the past six weeks.

Meridian Energy Powering to the Finish Line 4Q26 Op Stats

New Zealand

Contact Energy Limited is a diversified and integrated energy company which focuses on the generation of electricity and the sale of electricity and gas in New Zealand.

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Contact Energy (CEN NZ)

Power Points: Wild Wholesale Price Ride — October 2022

The cold snap in early September 2022 resulted in wild wholesale electricity price fluctuations, highlighting the market would benefit from more...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Lakes and Valuations Full— September 2022

The big wet hit August 2022, resulting in hydro storage hitting an all time high (170% of average) for this time of year, which in turn suppressed...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Lakes Enjoy a Timely Top Up — August 2022

Lifting hydro storage +30pp to 123% of average; GNE and MCY reported solid sets of 4Q22 operating statistics; CEN and MEL posted decent finishes to...

Forsyth Barr

Infratil CDC—Racking Up the Returns

All else equal, we estimate the share-price-implied valuation of CDC is ~NZ$11bn (IFT’s ~50% stake), or ~15x current contracted EV/EBITDA. CDC has...

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy Powering to the Finish Line 4Q26 Op Stats

Meridian Energy (MEL) delivered a record June 2026 and a record 4Q26 to cap a remarkable FY26 turnaround from FY25. Favourable operating...

Forsyth Barr

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