New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Meridian Energy (MEL) had a very strong 3Q26, boosted by a near-record March 2026 performance, such that it is back on track to meet our FY26 forecast (which was looking questionable).</li><li>Favourable hydrology and firmer wholesale electricity prices in March helped, but the main factor lifting 3Q26 estimated Energy Margin was a high level of financial sales at a below average cost to supply.</li><li>While FY26 opex guidance remained unchanged, capex guidance was pulled back with the Te Rere Hau wind farm development facing ongoing delays, resulting in expected capex being deferred to later periods.</li></ul>

Meridian Energy (MEL) had a very strong 3Q26, boosted by a near-record March 2026 performance, such that it is back on track to meet our FY26 forecast (which was looking questionable).Favourable hydrology and firmer wholesale electricity prices in March helped, but the main factor lifting 3Q26 estimated Energy Margin was a high level of financial sales at a below average cost to supply.While FY26 opex guidance remained unchanged, capex guidance was pulled back with the Te Rere Hau wind farm development facing ongoing delays, resulting in expected capex being deferred to later periods.

Meridian Energy Catching Up to Expectations — 3Q26 Op Stats

<ul><li>It isn’t often a utility can almost double operating earnings, but Meridian Energy (MEL) has achieved that, with 1H26 EBITDAF increasing +97% on 1H25.</li><li>Project development is the current focus for the sector, with MEL progressing towards reaching a final investment decision (FID) on three projects in 2026, albeit all three FIDs are likely to be at the end of the calendar year.</li><li>MEL is playing catch-up relative to CEN and MCY, and it has an ambition to develop multiple projects at the same time, testing its project management capabilities.</li></ul>

It isn’t often a utility can almost double operating earnings, but Meridian Energy (MEL) has achieved that, with 1H26 EBITDAF increasing +97% on 1H25.Project development is the current focus for the sector, with MEL progressing towards reaching a final investment decision (FID) on three projects in 2026, albeit all three FIDs are likely to be at the end of the calendar year.MEL is playing catch-up relative to CEN and MCY, and it has an ambition to develop multiple projects at the same time, testing its project management capabilities.

Meridian Energy First Half Of Redemption—1H26 Result

<ul><li>The generator-retailer 1H26 reporting season is upon us.</li><li>Meridian Energy (MEL) bore the brunt of the pain in 1H25, and we anticipate it will almost double EBITDAF.</li><li>All companies are expected to report healthy operating performance increases relative to 1H25, mainly because 1H25 included the effects of the dry 2024 winter.</li></ul>

The generator-retailer 1H26 reporting season is upon us.Meridian Energy (MEL) bore the brunt of the pain in 1H25, and we anticipate it will almost double EBITDAF.All companies are expected to report healthy operating performance increases relative to 1H25, mainly because 1H25 included the effects of the dry 2024 winter.

Electricity Sector Swimming With the Current—1H26 Preview

<ul><li>December 2025 was the third month in a row with renewable generation above 97%, highlighting the strong hydro position, but also the development of new generation in recent years.</li><li>Meridian Energy (MEL) broke hydro generation records, albeit, we do not expect that to translate into an earnings uplift as wholesale electricity prices were at near-record lows.</li><li>Heading into 2026 we are cautiously optimistic.</li></ul>

December 2025 was the third month in a row with renewable generation above 97%, highlighting the strong hydro position, but also the development of new generation in recent years.Meridian Energy (MEL) broke hydro generation records, albeit, we do not expect that to translate into an earnings uplift as wholesale electricity prices were at near-record lows.Heading into 2026 we are cautiously optimistic.

Power Points Energised For 2026—January 2026

<ul><li>October 2025 broke several records—the highest geothermal, wind, and solar generation for October; a renewable generation record; and, at month end, the snowpack was at its highest ever for this time of year.</li><li>The system is long energy, with hydro storage ~+50% above average, so we expect low wholesale electricity prices to persist for a while, although the NIWA climate survey indicates more settled weather ahead, and an 80% chance of La Niña conditions.</li><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) is the main short-term beneficiary of current operating conditions, as it can switch off its high-cost thermal generation.</li></ul>

October 2025 broke several records—the highest geothermal, wind, and solar generation for October; a renewable generation record; and, at month end, the snowpack was at its highest ever for this time of year.The system is long energy, with hydro storage ~+50% above average, so we expect low wholesale electricity prices to persist for a while, although the NIWA climate survey indicates more settled weather ahead, and an 80% chance of La Niña conditions.Genesis Energy (GNE) is the main short-term beneficiary of current operating conditions, as it can switch off its high-cost thermal generation.

Power Points Renewables Rule The Roost—November 2025

New Zealand

Contact Energy Limited is a diversified and integrated energy company which focuses on the generation of electricity and the sale of electricity and gas in New Zealand.

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Contact Energy (CEN NZ)

Meridian Energy Catching Up to Expectations — 3Q26 Op Stats

Meridian Energy (MEL) had a very strong 3Q26, boosted by a near-record March 2026 performance, such that it is back on track to meet our FY26...

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy First Half Of Redemption—1H26 Result

It isn’t often a utility can almost double operating earnings, but Meridian Energy (MEL) has achieved that, with 1H26 EBITDAF increasing +97% on 1H25.

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector Swimming With the Current—1H26 Preview

The generator-retailer 1H26 reporting season is upon us. Meridian Energy (MEL) bore the brunt of the pain in 1H25, and we anticipate it will almost...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Energised For 2026—January 2026

December 2025 was the third month in a row with renewable generation above 97%, highlighting the strong hydro position, but also the development of...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Renewables Rule The Roost—November 2025

Genesis Energy (GNE) is the main short-term beneficiary of current operating conditions, as it can switch off its high-cost thermal generation.

Forsyth Barr

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